Time Series of Internal Migration in the United Kingdom by Age, Sex - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Time Series of Internal Migration in the United Kingdom by Age, Sex and Ethnic Group: Estimation and Analysis Nik Lomax, Phil Rees and John Stillwell n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk International Conference on Population Geographies The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia 30 June to 3 July 2015

Outline 1. Ethnic diversity in the UK 2. Ethnic group population projections – ETHPOP 3. Internal migration component methodology 4. Interaction patterns

2001 2011

2011 Rather than “Diversity Explosion” as seen in the USA (Frey 2015), are we seeing “Diversity Diffusion”? Note: Index of Diversity = 1 -  e r e 2 where r e = proportion of the population in ethnic group e

Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP • Our overall aim is to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition of the United Kingdom’s population • This is important for monitoring ethnic advantage / disadvantage & segregation • The team are Phil Rees (PI), Paul Norman, Pia Wohland, Nik Lomax & Stephen Clark

Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP • The migration component requires input time-series data of migration of ethnic group populations • Moving to a multi-regional model over a bi- regional model • Experimenting with probabilistic estimates which require good time-series estimates

ETHPOP specification Features Old ETHPOP (2007-2010) New ETHPOP Zones LADs in England + WA, SC, NI LADs in UK (324 England, 22 Wales, (355 zones) 32 Scotland, 11 Northern Ireland = 404 zones) Ethnic groups 16 (2001 Census) England 12 (2001-2011 Censuses) UK Ages 0 to 100+ (SYA) 0 to 100+ (SYA) Sexes Females, Males Females, Males Country of Birth Not used Born in UK, Born Outside UK Time series of estimates 2001-2006 2001-2011-2014 Sub-populations 355 × 16 = 5,680 populations 404 × 12 × 2 = 9,696 populations

ETHPOP specification Features Old ETHPOP (2007-2010) New ETHPOP Zones LADs in England + WA, SC, NI LADs in UK (324 England, 22 Wales, (355 zones) 32 Scotland, 11 Northern Ireland = 404 zones) Ethnic groups 16 (2001 Census) England 12 (2001-2011 Censuses) UK Ages 0 to 100+ (SYA) 0 to 100+ (SYA) Sexes Females, Males Females, Males Country of Birth Not used Born in UK, Born Outside UK Time series of estimates 2001-2006 2001-2011-2014 Sub-populations 355 × 16 = 5,680 populations 404 × 12 × 2 = 9,696 populations

Previous ETHPOP project: 2007-10 Other Ethnic Broad ethnic groups White 6 White & Black African, Other Mixed Mixed Asian White Other Black Relative change compared to 2001 White & Asian Others 5 Chinese Black African 4 White & Black Caribbean, Other Asian Pakistani 3 Other Black Indian, Bangladeshi 2 Black Caribbean White Irish 1 White British 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Years

2001 Projected 2031 2011 2051

Levels of migration (Migrants aged over 1) 2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3

Levels of migration (Migrants aged over 1) 2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3 There is a negative correlation between immigration and net out-migration of the 404 Local Authority Districts for each year of the time series: r = -0.67 in 2001/02, r = -0.74 in 2006/07 and r = -0.66 in 2010/11, all p<0.01.

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity Migration per 1,000 people White 500 450 Multiple ethnic group 400 Indian 350 Pakistani 300 250 Bangladeshi 200 Chinese 150 Other Asian 100 50 Black 0 Other Ethnic Group Source: 2011 Census

Chinese and Chinese 16-24 Pakistani 16-24 Pakistani migration at age 16 to 24 500 450 Pakistani 400 Chinese 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity Adapted from Rees and Willekens 1986

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity

Combining data and estimating gaps • Iterative Proportional Fitting

Migration per 1,000: Relative to mid-2002 110 105 100 95 90 85 20to24 65to74 80 75plus 75 70 65 60

Urban – Rural Patterns CHI WBI WHO Dense to Dense to Dense Sparse Sparse to Sparse to Dense Sparse BLA BLC IND

Urban – Rural Patterns 16 to 24 65 Plus Dense to Sparse Dense to Dense Dense to Sparse Dense to Dense Sparse to Sparse Sparse to Dense Sparse to Sparse Sparse to Dense

Age 65+ in 2011 See Abel and Sander (2014)

Ethnic Concentration Chinese Black African Indian

Conclusions • Ethnic diversity in the UK has increased between 2001 and 2011 and is projected to increase further • Internal migration patterns by ethnic group an important component of population change – Age structure and migration rates vary by group • Need to get this right for our projection models • Further estimation required for the full Origin- Destination-Age-Sex-Ethnicity array • Full ODAS array allows us to experiment with multi-regional projection model

Time Series of Internal Migration in the United Kingdom by Age, Sex and Ethnic Group: Estimation and Analysis Nik Lomax, Phil Rees and John Stillwell n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/n.lomax More information about Poster Session tomorrow: Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, 2011-2101: a second chance to get them right

References • Abel & Sander (2014). Quantifying Global International Migration Flows. Science, 343 (6178) • Frey, B (2015) Diversity explosion: How new racial demographics are remaking America. Washington: The Brookings Institution • Lomax, N., Norman, P., Rees, P. and Stillwell, J. (2013) Subnational migration in the United Kingdom: producing a consistent time series using a combination of available data and estimates. Journal of Population Research 30(3): 265-288. DOI 10.1007/s12546-013- 9115-z.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12546-013- 9115-z • Rees, P. and Willekens, F. (1986) Data and accounts. In Rogers, A. and Willekens, F., eds. Migration and settlement: A multiregional comparative study. Dordrecht: Reidel, pp.19-58.