Thom Dammrich President, National Marine Manufacturers Association
Recreational Boating Industry Trends
U.S. Industry Retail Powerboats (1965 – 2010) Last 5 Years 2006 291,900 2007 267,300 600,000 2008 203,000 2009 153,550 500,000 Industry Volume 2010 139,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 ’ 06- ’ 10 -55% 100,000 1965 -1991 1992 - 2006 Average 400,000 Average 309,000 - Calendar Year Significant Decline in Demand Bottomed in 2010
Total Recreational Boats In Use 18.00 17.50 17.00 Millions 16.50 16.00 15.50 15.00 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 E Year
The 1970s and 1980s were very good to boating. And PWCs helped sustain this level of boat ownership through the1990s. US Boat Registrations vs. Population Including PWCs 350,000 15,000 14,000 Total Boat Registrations (000) 300,000 13,000 US Population (000) 12,000 250,000 11,000 10,000 The PWC Boom 200,000 9,000 8,000 150,000 7,000 The Boating Boom 6,000 100,000 5,000 YEAR Population Boat Registrations Source: Info-Link Technologies Inc.
But traditional boat ownership (non-PWC) has not kept up with the population. It has been relatively flat for the past 20 years. US Boat Registrations vs. Population Excluding PWCs 350,000 15,000 14,000 Total Boat Registrations (000) 300,000 13,000 US Population (000) 12,000 250,000 11,000 10,000 200,000 9,000 8,000 150,000 7,000 6,000 100,000 5,000 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 YEAR Population Boat Registrations Source: Info-Link Technologies Inc.
Boats have gotten older. Many of the boats built during the boom are still in use. In 1997 the average boat was 15 years old. Today the average boat is more than 20 years old, and getting older. Average Boat Age by Year 25 20 Average Age 15 10 5 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Ending Source: Info-Link Technologies Inc.
Meanwhile, boat owners have gotten older. Today there are fewer owners in their 30s and more in their 50s and 60s. Age Distribution of Powerboat Owners 1998 vs 2011 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ Age Range 2011 1998 Source: Info-Link Technologies Inc .
This is especially evident among sailors. They tend to be loyal to the sport but grinding winches in your 70s gets old too. Age Distribution of Sailboat Owners 1998 vs 2011 20% Many of these people are still sailing 18% 16% 14% 12% But sailing is 10% physical so… 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ Age Range 2011 1998 Source: Info-Link Technologies Inc.
U.S. Boating Participation History (1990 – 2010) No. of adults boating (in millions) % of adults boating 36.5% 36.0% 36.2% 36.1% 80 33.6% 32.3% 33.4% 36.3% 36.2% 30.4% 35.6% 30.5% 35.8% 28.8% 28.3% 29.2% 70 29.2% 33.4% 28.9% 26.6% 26.0% 60 Millions of Participants 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 No. of Adults Boating Source: NMMA 2010 reflects highest level of participation since 2000
Total Recreational Boats In Use 18.00 17.50 17.00 Millions 16.50 16.00 15.50 15.00 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 E Year
U.S. Boating Participation History (1990 – 2010) No. of adults boating (in millions) % of adults boating 36.5% 36.0% 36.2% 36.1% 80 33.6% 32.3% 33.4% 36.3% 36.2% 30.4% 35.6% 30.5% 35.8% 28.8% 28.3% 29.2% 70 29.2% 33.4% 28.9% 26.6% 26.0% 60 Millions of Participants 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 No. of Adults Boating Source: NMMA 2010 reflects highest level of participation since 2000
Boating Participation – Exposure to Boating as a Child Drives Adult Participation Childhood Boating Experience Current Participant Non - Participant 9.3% 21.6% 36.9% 1.2% 29.4% 41.2% 60.1% 1.2% Boated as child and parents Boated as a child and owned a boat parents owned a boat Boated as child and parents did not own a boat Boated as a child and Did not boat as a child and parents did not own a parents owned a boat
Boat Owner Demographics by Ethnicity 2010 Any Powerboat 1.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.8% 3.0% 3.4% 90.0% White Black Asian or Pacific Islander Native American/Alaskan Native Mixed Racial Background Other Race Declined to Answer
Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions) 156.9 97.2 23.0 17.5 11.6 7.6 Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic all Hispanic (any Total White alone Black alone Asian alone other races race) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Creating a Robust Future for Recreational Boating Developing a shared industry ten year growth action agenda based on a shared vision of success in 2021
Visions for 2021 1. Unified Industry Cross Sector Collaboration Brings Results — Boating Now Preferred Recreation Choice 2. Boating participation soars! New Generation and Greater Diversity attracted to boating 3. Expanded Access to the Water and the Lifestyle Has Been Achieved 4. Smarter and Fewer Regulations, and Better Boating Education Results in Safe, Affordable and Enjoyable Boating
Joint Actions to be Considered Encourage boaters to invite friends on the water • Each stakeholder group commits to deliver collaborative • efforts to their stakeholders Encourage universal support of Discover Boating’s • Welcome to the Water Campaign Focus recreational boating recruitment more on kids and • minorities Improve efforts on providing better boater education • Form and strengthen industry partnerships • Encourage greater diversity within the industry • Expand American Boating Congress to all stakeholders •
So…What’s Happening Today Boating remains big business $30+ billion
Estimated New Boat and Engine Sales by Key Global Markets Estimated New Boat/Engine Sales in U.S. $ (Billions) $8.0 $7.6 $7.0 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.1 $2.0 $2.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $0.5 $0.3 $-
U.S. Recreational Boat Trade $3,000 $1,400 $1,200 $2,500 Exports/Imports Millions Trade Balance Millions $1,000 $2,000 $800 $1,500 $600 $1,000 $400 $500 $200 $- $- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Exports Imports Trade Balance Source: USITC
Info- Link’s Bellwether: Retail Sales are Growing for the First Time in 5 Years Source: Info-Link Technologies Inc.
So…What’s Happening • Boating remains big business - $30 billion • North America remains 44% of Global Market and a Net Exporting Industry • Retail Sales are Growing for First Time in 5 Years • Wholesale Shipments of New Boats Up 23% in Units and 33% in Dollars in 2011
ITR Economics’ Forecast of Shipments: Continuing Growth through 2015 120 120 Rates-of-Change 80 80 40 40 0 0 -40 -40 3/12 12/12 -80 -80 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: ITR Economics
Comparison of Consumer Confidence to Wholesale Boat Shipments as of February 14, 2012 Rolling 12-month CCI Rolling 12-month Wholesale Shipments 160 500,000 450,000 140 CP1 CP5 BP6 400,000 BP1 120 Consumer Confidence rolling 12-month 350,000 Rolling 12-month Boat Shipments CP4 CP6 CP2 100 CP3 BP BT6 300,000 BP7 BP2 BP3 BT1 80 250,000 BP4 CV1 BT3 BT2 CV5 200,000 BT 60 CV2 Jan-12, 57.8 CV3 150,000 CV4 BT4 40 100,000 CV Nov-11, 139,489 20 6 50,000 0 0 Dec-67 Dec-71 Dec-75 Sep-78 Sep-80 Sep-82 Sep-84 Sep-86 Sep-88 Sep-90 Sep-92 Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10
Consumer Spending Back On Track Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Goods and Services 8% 6% PERCENT CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD 4% 2011-Q4, 2% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
So…What’s Happening Boating remains big business - $30 billion • North America Remains 44% of Global Market and a Net • Exporting Industry Retail Sales are Growing for First Time in 5 Years • Wholesale Shipments of New Boats Expected to be Up • 23% in Units and 33% in Dollars in 2011 ITR Economic Forecast of Shipments Shows Continuing • Growth through 2015 Consumer Confidence, Light Vehicle Sales and Consumer • Spending Improving 2012 Boat Shows Off to a Good Start •
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