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Florida Year-over-Year Job Creation (Thousands) 400 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -200 -400 -549.4 -600
Job Growth – November 2017 to November 2018 U.S. – 1.7% Alaska: -0.2% Hawaii: 2.0%
Job Creation November 2017 to November 2018 Florida Job Creation Rate: 2.8% U.S. Job Creation Rate: 1.7% Top Counties for Jobs: Orange 32,713 Broward 20,185 Palm Beach 19,655 Top Growth Rate Counties: Seminole, Orange, Lake, Osceola – all 4.6% 5 Florida Counties Lost Jobs over past year Data Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Job Growth 2007 to 2017 U.S. Job Growth Rate: 6.3% Florida’s Job Growth Rate: 6.9% Top Counties – Jobs 1. Orange 128,868 2. Miami-Dade 107,552 3. Broward 45,880 26 Florida Counties Lost Jobs 4. Palm Beach 36,471 between 2007 and 2017 – 38.8% 5. Duval 36,406 53.2% of U.S. Counties Lost Jobs Top Counties - Job Growth between 2007 and 2017 1. Sumter 40.0% 2. St. Johns 28.8% 3. Flagler 26.3% 4. Osceola 24.9% 5. Walton 24.7% Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Annual Data
Age Group 85+ Florida 80- 84 Growth to 75- 79 70- 2030 by 74 65- Age Group 69 60- 64 55- 59 50- 54 45- 49 40- 44 35- 39 30- 34 25- 29 20- 24 15- 19 0- 14 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Florida’s next 5 million People 8 Counties to account for 56.9% of Population Increase: 1. Miami-Dade 2. Orange 3. Hillsborough 4. Broward 5. Palm Beach 6. Lee 7. Duval 8. Osceola Top Number: Population Increase Bottom Number: Percentage Increase Source: FL Demographic Estimating Conference & BEBR FL Population Studies
Net Migration to Florida 6,713 18,854 Alaska 494 Hawaii -368 Puerto Rico 26,204
Florida County 3 rd Grade Reading Scores Florida 2018 Number is percent of 3 rd Graders reading at Grade Level Statewide: 95,232 public school 3 rd Graders not reading at grade level in 2018. Data Source: Florida Department of Education
January 2019 January 2018
Variables used in Florida’s Leading Economic Index Florida Consumer Open Jobs Sentiment Florida Trade-Weighted Dollar Housing Starts
Variables used in Florida’s Leading Economic Index • Florida Initial Unemployment Claims (Federal Reserve-FRED) Commercial Carrier Activity 140,000 • Commercial Airport Activity 120,000 100,000 (FAA-ATADS) 80,000 60,000 Carrier 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Carrier) • Interest Rate Yield Spread (Federal Reserve-FRED)
Housing Starts
Florida Trade-Weighted Dollar 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Yield Spread – 10s minus 2s
Initial Unemployment Claims - Florida 5,216 Initial Claims – 12/29/2018. 14,698 furloughed Florida workers according to Center for American Progress
2018 additions to The Flo lorida Scorecard The Florida Leading Index forecasts the Job Creation in Florida for the upcoming 6 months . This addition to the Florida Scorecard forecasts the probability that Florida will be in a recession in the next 9 months.
January 2019 January 2018
2019 Forecast Florida Chamber Foundation Jobs Forecast for 2019 (thousands) 150,000 Jobs 16% 14% 70% Probability 12% between 130,000 10% and 170,000 8% 40% Probability 6% between 140,000 4% and 160,000 2% 0% 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210
2019 Forecasts 1. Jobs Created – 150,000 2. Population Increase – 330,000 3. Top Industry Growth Rates: 1. Construction 2. Professional & Business Services 3. Health Services
Coordinates
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