The Sustainable Development Goals Reality & Prospects Mahmoud - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Sustainable Development Goals Reality & Prospects Mahmoud Mohieldin, Senior Vice President World Bank Group Mahmoud Mohieldin March 13 th , 2017

Global Context

Global Economy GDP Growth (Percent) World Advanced economies EMDEs 5 4 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: World Bank. 2

Regional Economy GDP Growth (Percent) 2016 2017 2018 2019 1991-2008 5 4 3 2 1 0 MENA importers GCC Non-GCC oil exporters Oil Source: World Bank. 3

Looking Back: The MDGs Era MDG Progress, by number of countries 7 2 27 71 11 27 MDG 1.1: Poverty 4 13 52 35 8 33 MDG 1.9: Malnourishment 11 17 40 40 12 25 MDG 2.2: Primary Completion 11 28 67 10 7 22 MDG 3.1: Gender Parity 16 37 34 38 18 2 MDG 4.1: Under-5 Mortality 18 33 54 34 4 2 MDG 4.2: Infant Mortality 11 20 88 15 3 8 MDG 5.1: Maternal Mortality 2 12 40 67 5 19 MDG 7.8: Water MDG 7.9: Sanitation 7 14 58 36 7 23 Target Met Sufficient Progress (by 2015) Insufficient Progress (2015-2020) Moderately off target (2020-2030) Seriously Off Target (after 2030) Insufficient Data 4

Progress on Child & Maternal Mortality Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000) Under-5 Mortality Rate (per 1,000) 1990-2015 1990-2015 120 450 400 100 350 80 300 250 60 200 40 150 100 20 50 0 0 1990 2000 2015 1990 2000 2015 Middle East & North Africa Low & middle income 5

Global Frameworks for Development: From MDGs to SDGs MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals 8 17 Targets 21 169 Indicators 60 ~231 Holistic: Economic, Social, Priority Areas Human Development Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national development path 6

The Sustainable Development Goals The 2030 Agenda of Ending Poverty, Preserving the Planet, While Leaving No One Behind 7

Alignment of Countries to the Sustainable Development Goals 84 governments presented their plans on achieving the SDGs*: Country development strategy aligned Institutional structures aligned PRIORITY GOALS HIGHLIGHTED BY COUNTRIES: 8 *based on analysis of statements made at April 21 UN HLTD event on SDG implementation

Conflicts, Climate Change, Financing, Data Most Frequently Identified Challenges Lack capa -city Conf- Lack licts of data CC Trade Climate Lack Climate Pop. Conflicts data change restric- change displa- violence tions Lack cement Lack Lack Lack capa of fin data fin. -city Violence/ extremism Clim. Lack change data Viol- Lack of ence Climate capacity Environ- change ment Conflicts Lack of capacity Conflicts Enviro Lack of nment capacity Climate change Lack of financing Lack of financing * Base d o n analysis o f state me nts made o n April 21, 2016 during the Hig h-L e ve l T he matic De b ate (HL T D) e ve nt he ld at Unite d Natio ns. State me nts availab le o nline : https:/ / pape rsmart.unme e ting s.o rg / g a/ 70th-se ssio n/ hig h-le ve l-the matic -de b ate -o n-ac hie ving -the -sustainab le - 9 de ve lo pme nt-g o als/ state me nts/

WBG Areas For Action To Support The 2030 Agenda IMPLEMENTA TION DA TA FINANCING E nsure availab ility o f Co untry e ng ag e me nt Do me stic re so urc e ho use ho ld b udg e t surve ys mo de l; Draw o n mo b ilizatio n; le ve rag ing in 78 po o re st c o untrie s stre ng th o f e ntire WBG private se c to r; addre ssing e ve ry thre e ye ars; data to pro vide inte g rate d ne e ds o f re g io nal and re vo lutio n; statistic al so lutio ns g lo b al pub lic g o o ds c apac ity b uilding WBG action on the SDGs has been articulated along these three focus areas 10

Financing

Critical Components Of Financing For Development Improving domestic resource 1. National public resources: mobilization (DRM) 2. Global public resources: Better and smarter aid Unlocking private investment for 3. National and global development, Attracting FDI, private resources: Remittances, Philanthropic finance • The World Economic Forum estimated that annual demand for infrastructure finance alone is $3.7 trillion. With annual investment currently around $2.7 trillion, this leaves a gap of $1 trillion per year. • According to the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, incorporating climate considerations raises the financing gap even further, to $2-3 trillion per year.

1. Domestic Resources Median tax revenue as a percent of GDP by • A country’s ability to mobilize domestic Income grouping, 1990-2014 (Tax/ GDP Ratio) resources (DRM) and spend them 0.25 effectively – at the national, sub-national and municipal levels –lies at the crux of 0.2 financing for development. 0.15 • Strengthening the capacity of local governments, including to raise their 0.1 own revenues, to manage expenditures and service delivery, and to borrow and 0.05 manage debt prudently is critical; 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 • Developing inter-government fiscal transfer arrangements that consider the needs of sub-national governments and High income Upper middle income equalize fiscal capacity and expenditure Lower middle income Low income is also critical Source: IMF data 13

2. Official Development Assistance As development challenges at the global and national levels increase, so too should the resource envelope available to meet these needs….ODA flows are simply not enough. Developing countries' total resource receipts 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ODA Non-ODA Personal remittances ODA: Official Development Assistance. ODA in the chart includes bilateral ODA and multilateral concessional flows. Non-ODA flows include: other official developmental flows, officially-supported export credits, FDI, other private flows at market terms and private grants. Adjusted gross disbursements, three-year moving average, USD million, 2012 constant prices. Sources. Remittances, World Bank. Other resource flows, DAC statistics. NB: Data on flows to MADCTs are only available up to 2010. 14

3. Mobilizing Private Resources As development challenges at the global and national levels increase, so too should the resource envelope available to meet these needs…. • Aggregate assets held by ten largest MDBs: $1.3 trillion • Making the “Billions to Trillions” pledge a reality requires expanding the pool of development capital beyond the multilateral development banks (MDBs) and official agencies. • Private funds: o $2 trillion of assets held by the world’s ten largest pension funds o $4.5 trillion of assets held by the world’s ten largest insurance companies o $5 trillion in assets held by the world’s ten largest sovereign wealth funds o $100 trillion global bond market • The global community looks to the World Bank Group to lead on the “Billions to Trillions” initiative - a call to greatly increase the financial capacity that can be deployed to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. 15

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Sustainable Finance The Cascade Can commercial financing be cost- COMMERCIAL 1 effectively mobilized for sustainable FINANCING investment? If not… UPSTREAM REFORMS Can upstream reforms be 2 & MARKET FAILURES put in place to address • Country and Sector Policies • Regulations and Pricing market failures? If not… • Institutions and Capacity PUBLIC AND CONCESSIONAL RESOURCES FOR RISK Can risk instruments & credit 3 INSTRUMENTS enhancements cost-effectively & CREDIT ENHANCEMENTS cover remaining risks? If not… • Guarantees • First Loss PUBLIC & CONCESSIONAL FINANCING, Can development INCLUDING SUB-SOVEREIGN 4 objectives be resolved with • Public finance (incl. national development banks and scarce public financing? domestic SWF) • MDBs and DFIs

Data

Good Data Informs Implementation Improving data availability Statistical Capacity Score (scale: 0-100) 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 South Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa 19

Good Data Informs Implementation Improving data availability Number of Poverty Data since 1976 20

Implementation

Key Areas for Countries to Unlock their Implementation Potential Growth for poverty reduction – five common characteristics Accumulation • Fut ure orient ation • High invest ment Stabilization • High saving • Macroeconomic st ability • Modest inflation • S ust ainable public finances Inclusion • Leadership and governance • Credible commit ment t o growt h • Credible commit ment t o inclusion • Capable administ rat ion Innovation Allocation • Openness • Market Allocat ion • Import knowledge • Prices guide resources • Exploit global demand • Resources follow prices 22

Key Areas for Countries to Unlock their Implementation Potential Harnessing the Demographic Transition Cumulative change in population, 2015-50 23