The Search for Answers Myth busting lessons for those creating new fuels from oil shale
Myth: Oil is becoming less important
Fact: Countries continue to strive to grow their economies... 14,000 USA 12,000 GDP (USD Billion PPP) 10,000 CHINA 8,000 INDIA 6,000 GERMANY 4,000 JAPAN UK ITALY INDIA FRANCE 2,000 CANADA AUSTRALIA 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Oil Consumption (Million Barrels) Source: EnergyQuest 2009
...but myths continue to abound about fossil fuels...including oil shale!
Myth: Shale oil production generates 400% more GHG emissions than conventional oil Source: Monica Richter, Australian Conservation Foundation, ABC TV 7.30 Report, 9 August 2010
Fact: CO 2 emissions penalty 20% - 63%.... 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 ULS Diesel, 100% Biodiesel, CNG LNG LPG GTL CTL STL Base STL Current Imported Canola Case Modified Australian Crude Plant Case Blend Diesel All ¡figures ¡indicate ¡kg ¡CO 2 e ¡per ¡km ¡travelled ¡in ¡43t ¡ar9culated ¡truck ¡ Source: RARE Consulting 2009
...and CO 2 emissions levels can go lower Cogeneration/ waste heat utilisation Solar thermal power Offsets, algal sequestration?
Myth: Processing shale oil uses vast amounts of water
Fact: 1:1 ratio of water used to oil produced Source: HATCH Engineering and UniQuest 2009
Producing shale oil uses less water than other industrial processes.... Uniquest 2009
...and other fuel processes.... Uniquest 2009
Myth: It takes more energy to produce shale oil than the energy content of the shale oil produced... Energy Out/Energy In < 1 Myth (?): ...and, energy return on energy invested (EROI) is a valid method for comparing the merits of alternative energy sources...
Fact: ...there is no widely accepted protocol for calculating EROI. So many variables and so many boundary decisions render comparisons meaningless
Imperatives: • “…if the cost of energy required to produce shale oil is greater than the market value of the shale oil produced, it won’t get produced.” • [ref: Shell’s M. King Hubbert] • If left in the ground, the energy benefit of oil shale to society is ZERO.
Myth: Oil shale “explodes” like popcorn when heated (i.e., retorted)
Facts: Actual Bulk Density Measurements on Australian Shale (kg/tonne) Crushed Retorted In Situ Shale Shale 1650 853 650 (+Voids) = (- Weight) =
Fact: …sorry folks, there is no “popcorn effect”
Myth: Communities will not support oil shale oil development
In Summary • Myths and misconceptions continue to plague the oil shale industry • Proponents should: • do good scientific work and subject it to peer review • be transparent – let the facts do the talking • Shale oil is a legitimate option for our transport fuel future
The Search for Answers FACTS: the remedy for oil shale myths and the curse to those who spread them.
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