Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. The Scenario-Planning-Process with the peri-urban region of Rostock Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Project Manager Workshop BaltClim 29th -30th May 2012 1
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Content A. The research project plan B:altic B. The Scenario-Planning-Process with the peri-urban region of Rostock C. Challenges and Chances 2
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. A: The research project plan B:altic Social-ecological research, funded by a specific German research fund from 2009-2013 “Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast“ 3
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Specific transdisciplinary research Transdisciplinary research – what does this mean? production of knowledge to solve problems of the practical world. In order to avoid potential borders of knowledge, it transcends disciplinary boundaries and goes beyond scientifically generated knowledge by integrating non-scientific societal knowledge What are we doing? Intense transdisciplinary cooperation with the city of Rostock and the suburban region 4
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. B: The Scenario-Planning-Process with the peri-urban region of Rostock Source: http://maps.google.de_18.11.2010; modified 5
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Scenarios „Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points. “ (Kahn& Wiener 1967) A scenario is a provocative, plausible story for how the future of an urban region might look like (Berkhout et al. 2002, Vliet et al. 2010). 6
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Scenario-Planning Adequate method to cope with uncertainties, nescience and surprising events related to climate change and with complexity of possible future developments Both integrated: impacts of climate change (regional climate change scenarios of IPCC) and future development of society Participatory process that can facilitate the local society in their adaptation efforts Multiple viewpoints and societal knowledge can be integrated Platform for exchange and integration of different forms of knowledge (scientific, lay or informal) relevant for adaptation 7
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Future spatial development in Rostock Aim : common and integrated adaptation strategies to climate change impacts of the urban region of Rostock with focus on spatial development Method: scenario planning (2010 – 2012; 3 main events), involving key stakeholders from different disciplines and institutions (politics, economy, administration, civil society) 8
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Stakeholder involvement • Gaining support of the political administration • Initiation of the process of climate change adaptation in Rostock ⇒ established core-working-group consisting of researchers and practitioners (urban and regional planners, environmental administration, coastal and flood protection) Task: intensive preparation of the inputs for the scenario-planning workshops; Joint coordination of the process and the content Balance between involvement of all stakeholders and scientific determination of the whole process by plan B:altic 9
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. The Scenario-Planning-Process Process so far : ⇒ kick-off research project with active participation of practitioners => common workshop on challenges of climate change • Starting point: Network analysis of relevant stakeholders • Discussion of results of network analysis with core-working-group as local experts > Invitation of 80 stakeholders for the first workshop 10
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. The Scenario-Planning-Process in Rostock ⇒ first scenario-Workshop on climate I Definition of the Spatial development 2050 subject Decision-making within the transdisciplinary process change and spatial development in Rostock and the suburban-region with a II Identification of Key factors of spatial development key factors Identifying key factors within the transdisciplinary process wider participation of stakeholders. Workshop 1 III Analysis of key „Key factors for the future“ Joint analysis of the situation: factors Discussion of alternative future developments Which impacts does climate change have Interdisciplinary process within plan B:altic • Evaluation of results of the first workshop • Relevance and interactions between key factors on the suburban-region? • Interactions between key factors and climate change • Translation into scenarios (computer-based) Discussion of alternative future • Result: Four consistent scenarios Transdisciplinary process developments • Discussion of scenarios • Revision of scenarios • Selection of scenarios for the second workshop Workshop 2 ⇒ second scenario-Workshop IV Development of „Scenarios as images of the future“ scenarios Discussion of scenarios Discussion of scenarios: In which ways Interdisciplinary process within plan B:altic • Evaluation of results of the second workshop could the suburban-region develop? • Revision of scenarios Transdisciplinary process • Decisions concerning the third workshop ⇒ third scenario-Workshop Workshop 3 V Transfer of „Climate change adaptation strategies“ scenarios Development of measures and strategies Development of measures and strategies 11
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. First Workshop “Key factors for the future“ • Integration of complexity and uncertainty in order to analyse alternative future developments and interdependencies of 18 factors 4 climate factors 14 societal factors 12
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Development of scenarios interrelationships and importance analysed combined to scenarios of future spatial development Choice of scenarios by: differentiability, consistency, interpretability, range Spatial development in the Rostock Region Key factor A Key factor B Key factor C Key factor ... A.1 A.2 A.3 B.1 B.2 B.3 C.1 C.2 C.3 … ... ... Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario ... 13
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Development of scenarios Harbor and Relevance for spatial Water Sea level rise maritime development economy Weak Medium Development and Increase in Strong quality of free Tourism temperature areas Agriculture and Changes in Demographic forestry precipitation structure Relationship Housing urban-rural Extreme weather events Retail and Energy policy industry Policy priorities Financial situation Transport infrastructure European Union Legal instruments 14
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Four different “images of the future“ Szenario 1: „Entwicklung in Grenzen“ Szenario 3: „Klima der Extreme“ Szenario 2: „Alles in Maßen“ Szenario 4: „Divers geprägt“ 15
Climate Change and Spatial Development: Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast Peter Wibbeling, M.A. Second Workshop “Scenarios as images of the future“ Scenarios as “images of the future“… • focus on climate change impacts combined with ecological and societal developments • show four different images of the future • do not show the most likely future, but possible (long-term) developments • a logical, consistent “image“ 16
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