The Role of Preventive Diplomacy The Role of Preventive Diplomacy The Role of Preventive Diplomacy The Role of Preventive Diplomacy In the Future Direction of ARF In the Future Direction of ARF Wi hi Within the Context of Within the Context of Wi hi h C h C f f the Evolving Regional Architecture the Evolving Regional Architecture S Wiryono S Wiryono S W yo o S W yo o 1
( I ) ( I ) Preventive Diplomacy : To Strengthen Peace Preventive Diplomacy : To Strengthen Peace Definition Definition Conflict prevention or Preventive Diplomacy Conflict prevention or Preventive Diplomacy p p p p y y is is not only not only a term a term that applies to measures designed to prevent conflict that applies to measures designed to prevent conflict h h ppl e ppl e me me e de gned e de gned p even p even nfl nfl from breaking out but also to those intended to prevent a conflict, from breaking out but also to those intended to prevent a conflict, even one that has been ongoing for some time, even one that has been ongoing for some time, even one that has been ongoing for some time, even one that has been ongoing for some time, from escalating and whenever possible to reverse it from escalating and whenever possible to reverse it and guide it toward and guide it toward a negotiated peaceful solution. and guide it toward and guide it toward a negotiated peaceful solution a negotiated peaceful solution a negotiated peaceful solution. The late Ali Alatas in his book, “A Voice for a Just Peace,” The late Ali Alatas in his book, “A Voice for a Just Peace,” said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace. said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace. said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace. said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace. We all need peace and We all need peace and East Asia has basically been at peace. East Asia has basically been at peace. 2
( II ) ( II ) Nature of Peace Nature of Peace ASEAN is now moving to ASEAN i ASEAN i ASEAN is now moving to a i i a community community with three pillars : i with three pillars : i h h i h h ill ill political & security , economic and socio political & security , economic and socio- -cultural. cultural. This aspiration is made possible because This aspiration is made possible because p p p p during its past existence during its past existence Asean Asean has has in fact in fact been able been able to prevent to prevent existing existing disputes disputes from escalating from escalating and and at the same time at the same time quietly nursed new ambitions. quietly nursed new ambitions. The The peace among Asean members The The peace among Asean members peace among Asean members peace among Asean members is enviable is enviable compared with compared with some some of the of the other regions of the world. of the other regions of the world. of the other regions of the world. other regions of the world. But what is the nature of peace in the context of But what is the nature of peace in the context of the future direction of ARF and the future direction of ARF and within the context of the evolving regional architecture. within the context of the evolving regional architecture. 3
I think it is fair and logical to conclude that I think it is fair and logical to conclude that when people kill each other less and less often, when people kill each other less and less often, peace must be gaining some ground. peace must be gaining some ground. p p g g g g g g But what is the nature of this kind of peace? But what is the nature of this kind of peace? It is certainly a peace that is not based It is certainly a peace that is not based s c s c y y p p c c s o b s d s o b s d on a treaty or a set of security arrangements on a treaty or a set of security arrangements - - although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia and there is the ARF, and Southeast Asia and there is the ARF, and there are security arrangements between some Asian nations there are security arrangements between some Asian nations there are security arrangements between some there are security arrangements between some sian nations sian nations and a Western power like the United States. and a Western power like the United States. 4
You may call the peace You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia that prevails in East Asia “negative peace” or “peace by default” but “negative peace” or “peace by default” but whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, since it brings down the casualty count. since it brings down the casualty count. And more important is the economic benefit And more important is the economic benefit And more important is the economic benefit And more important is the economic benefit to all countries in the region and the world to all countries in the region and the world by the expanding trade and investment. by the expanding trade and investment. by the expanding trade and investment by the expanding trade and investment The challenge is to go beyond trade and investment. The challenge is to go beyond trade and investment. As a result As a result : we have a shift of center of gravity we have a shift of center of gravity from across the Atlantic to Asia Pacific. f from across the Atlantic to Asia Pacific. f h A l h A l i i A i P A i P ifi ifi 5
To my mind, much of this peace can be attributed To my mind, much of this peace can be attributed y y , , p p to the presence in the region of to the presence in the region of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its work, particularly the deliberations and and its work, particularly the deliberations and exchanges within the framework exchanges within the framework exchanges within the framework exchanges within the framework of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Founded in Bangkok in 1994 the ARF aims at promoting Founded in Bangkok in 1994, the ARF aims at promoting Founded in Bangkok in 1994, the ARF aims at promoting Founded in Bangkok in 1994 the ARF aims at promoting transparency, dialogue and cooperation on matters regarding transparency, dialogue and cooperation on matters regarding security among the powers that have security among the powers that have y y g g p p a “footprint” within the Asia a “footprint” within the Asia- -Pacific region. Pacific region. 6
( III ) ( III ) Co- Co -existence of Tension & Peace existence of Tension & Peace E East Asia is not famous for resolving regional tensions. East Asia is not famous for resolving regional tensions. E A i i A i i f f f f l i l i i i l l i i There are disputes that have remained unresolved There are disputes that have remained unresolved over many decades and yet over many decades, and yet over many decades, and yet over many decades and yet peace has been achieved in the region in the sense that peace has been achieved in the region in the sense that the guns have been silent for a long time. the guns have been silent for a long time. g g g g Dr. Timo Kivimaki - Dr. Timo Kivimaki - ....... ....... - - has explained this to me has explained this to me by saying that by saying that “ “East Asian stability and harmony “ “East Asian stability and harmony A i A i bili bili d h d h is based on the fact that the nations of the region focus is based on the fact that the nations of the region focus on the things that unite rather than on disputes and on the things that unite, rather than on disputes, and on the things that unite, rather than on disputes, and on the things that unite rather than on disputes and this has meant that many conflicting parties this has meant that many conflicting parties have been hesitant to start explicitly have been hesitant to start explicitly p p y y discussing the issues that divide.” discussing the issues that divide.” I agree with him. I agree with him. 7
Thanks to ASEAN/ARF ! Thanks to ASEAN/ARF ! You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia “negative peace” or “peace by default” “negative peace” or “peace by default” but whatever name you give it, b b but whatever name you give it, h h i i i i the fact remains that it works, the fact remains that it works, since it brings down the casualty count. since it brings down the casualty count. 8
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