The main messages emerging from our analysis of data, - PDF document

The main messages emerging from our analysis of data, self-evaluation and feedback from key stakeholders is:  Keep going – you are doing the right things,  We are having an impact on learner outcomes and sustaining improvement where it is needed. The perceptions within the region of our work is improving  But the road is a long one with further improvements required, impacting ultimately on learner life chances.  Narrative – we are refining and focusing now on key areas of need, recognising that we have areas of weakness to target, but also that some of our schools have reached a ceiling/ or close to that ceiling and that the challenge is to maintain and sustain the work / outcomes and focus on the needs of every pupil.  We’ve had clear instructions so we will cov er..... 1. Main issues arising from data ( we will include more than one year because better and fuller picture) 2. How does this link to our plans & national priorities – I hope that this will come through 3. How do we plan for and respond to LA needs  On occasion I will ask colleagues to talk through the slides – generally you should find that we come back to these themes noted here throughout the short presentation  So before I move on to the data slides, I need to give one heath warning as we are referring to marginal gains and we have had to make some tweaks to graphs ect to show impact as the gains are on occasion small but important – so we have moved the vertical axis to illustrate points made

 Slide is – ERW level 2 + versus wales  Our first key headline is – this... o ..First region to top 60% L2+  We know that where we have directed intervention – that there have been successes. This targeted intervention needs effective head teachers to deliver and sustain improvement and build the necessary resilience in schools.  Targeted schools have made increases, specifically where detailed analysis at subject level and we also know that where support has been between schools, that this has added value to reducing in school variation.  Minister I presume that you know this already but it does suggest that regional working works well

 Same with projected path  If ERW had continued on same trajectory from 2012 – Wales would have caught up, but we too action and it can be seen that the impetus form regional working has accelerated up away.. We have to also recognise that the steps necessary in some schools are small and difficult with some ERW schools have reached ceiling  Also reflects improvement or a change nationally, which may be in part about the work of consortia. Gwe’s strap line is something like - all schools to be god but my school to be a little bit better. This can be seen in the inter-regional collaboration there is going on currently, and reflect the work that regions are doing together.  So as you can see – we are slightly better and accelerating, or opening again the gap between us and Wales or other regions.  I think there is a great deal to celebrate here nationally

 This graph shows the Lev 2 + all regions  Central south in particular, coming from low base - we are sustaining – a different type of step, but equally challenging, and we need to recognise that some of our schools are at a ceiling, so now we need to focus on key groups of learners and specific schools  We know where to go next with these marginal gains - will come to these later

 We have had a focused strategy for GCSE and we know its modus operandi is about building capacity and strengthening all departments.  The acceleration in English is down to focused interventions.

 The picture is similar so we have been able to make key targeted gains.  We know that of the 6,209 pupils who got the maths 587 didn’t get the 5 GCSEs. We are now working with schools to better target and track these schools.  Despite improvement, and acceleration at a faster rate than Wales – ....we know that we have more work to do on maths and that we need to further close the gap between maths and languages.  There are many gaps to close – not just efsm. We have specific interventions in operation on within school variation.

 The data for welsh as a subject is complex and complicated.  This measure does not always make clear the proportion of pupils in the cohort is significantly different. For example, the total number of pupils achieving W1st language in Ceredigion is 448 as compared to Torfaen 160. Same number of secondary schools.  Swansea in the region – again 223 – but only 9% st language is positively increasing steadily... From 18%  The percentage of pupils engaged in taking W 1 to 20% of pupils nd language is very different  Dealing with focused interventions for schools for both W1st language and 2 from school to school.  The proportion of pupils carrying on with WM education from KS2 -3 varies significantly between LAs.

 ERW regression line  Interesting to compare position of schools in individual subjects compared with L2+  For example, need to target green school on right – seems that English is maybe holding it back

 ERW regression line  Interesting to compare position of schools in individual subjects compared with L2+  Maths regression line is “lower” th an English, so still work to do  These slides just show the point I referred to earlier – on the gap

 We’ve undertaken an analysis of the use of BTEC and its effect on results this year – but also its potential impact on future years.. This could affect two thirds of our schools by between 50 and 100% with only 8 schools not affected at all.  This is very significant - however this does not mean that all will drop, this is the worst case scenario. The main message is that any measure showing performance in science is misleading because BTEC is not equivalent to GCSE. Brett’ s term – “gaming” is fair here with pan Wales implications.  What’s important to note here is what we are doing about it... *identified leaders for learning for science last year and additional capacity this year *teacher re training programme *focus on KS2 and 3 – developing the scientific literacy of primary school pupils as they step into secondary – under developed area in many primaries * Some of this reflected in teacher assessment work – will come to that later

 We know best performing schools with higher efsm are doing well and are often the best in Wales.  We know specifically whether the gains are required this coming year and for the future  We are particularly proud this year, and I was glad Minister that you felt you could thank our schools for, the accelerated pace of improvement. A nearly 6 pp increase means that we have improved overall and accelerated the improvement of efsm pupils. – and widened the gap with other regions  The contributory factors have been:  Effective tracking of pupils , School to School work to develop a self-improving system,  Guidance and monitoring , Training for Challenge Advisers  Strategic lead and a strategy, under the ERW Business Plan,  Creating one – stop shop , Mainstreaming the focus on pupils in poverty – not efsm only  Identify a task force to facilitate and coordinate the regi on’s work in a cohesive strategic manner.  Use the performance and improvement function of internal audit to identify areas of strength and for development in the use and impact of PDG.  Research the poverty implications for pupils across the region. Including rural and isolation / access poverty, valleys post-industrial, inner city, seasonal employment.  Increase the number of PDG Professional Learning Schools .  Use the improved level of intelligence and qualitative information to match with the performance data to inform a refreshed strategy from March  Use the second core visit to capture the most effective practice on index of excellence .  Raise levels of awareness in ERW governance structures.  Include in scrutiny committees forward work plan for 2016-17.

 Two separate slides on efsm and non fsm  This re-emphasises the point that whilst raising achievement for all, we are also accelerating achievement of efsm learners as compared with other regions

 We have mapped these and also against the categorisation model – i.e. schools needing significant support.  Our yield to raise standards for all is here.  I’d like to look at further details –  Minister – I know Merthyr quite well, do you now Crymych, Llanfyllin, Whitland? These are not leafy suburbs – villages with a really stagnant economy, and who face the challenges I have noted. Resources like PDG or SCC don’t really impact on pupils in these schools.  We have been able to reallocate some of our own resources and a small amount of capacity building money from SCC.  But you will therefore understand our frustration when one school in another part of Wales received more money in one year...  .. than we as a region received for capacity building