The LUISA platform and applications Claudia BARANZELLI (JRC-IES-H08) - PDF document

The LUISA platform and applications Claudia BARANZELLI (JRC-IES-H08) LUISA team BISO– Progress workshop Ispra, 21 st November 2014 Joint Research Centre www.jrc.ec.europa.eu Outline of the presentation 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform 2. Current configuration of LUISA 3. Energy-related applications 4. On-going and prospective work 1

Outline of the presentation 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform 2. Current configuration of LUISA 3. Energy-related applications 4. On-going and prospective work Land use modelling and LUISA Territorial impact assessments Following the EC guidelines on Impact Assessment procedure, JRC initiated land use modelling activities, with the aim of developing a platform capable of performing more integrated assessments , so to fulfil the emerging policy needs of different services of the EC. LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability impact Assessment platform) 2

LUISA • It is more than one stand-alone model. It is a platform of inter-linked data, processes, models and indicators; Accommodates multi-policy scenarios . E.g.: regional policy + CAP + transport + • environment + …); • It is linked to several upstream models in order to capture macro sector dynamics and policies (emissions, energy, economy, demography, agriculture/forestry, water, etc.); • Its core is a land allocation model which simulates future land use changes, given a set of scenario specifications; Based on state-of-the-art land use modelling techniques. • Land use modelling and LUISA The latest developments of LUISA • LUISA (formerly known as LUMP ) has been changing substantially, in order to meet ever more demanding policy requirements and better represent complex system dynamics. • land functions : LUISA simulates future land-use changes, and land functions related to the resulting land-use patterns are then inferred and described by spatially explicit indicators. Applications Integrated Coastal Zone Management Common Agricultural Policy EU Water Blueprint Regional Policy Shale gas Resource Efficiency Roadmap 3

Outline of the presentation 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform 2. Current configuration of LUISA 3. Energy-related applications 4. On-going and prospective work Baseline scenario Baseline Scenario – Scope and operational definition A Baseline Scenario provides the basis for comparing policy options: • providing a benchmark function, for ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of policies. contributing to the assessment of policy impacts with possible overlaps or conflicts between • sectoral developments and sectoral policies; Operational definition presented to the Secretary-General of the European Commission in May 2014: • Common definition among all EC services that would be undertaking an Impact Assessment. • Includes the full scope of relevant policies assuring their coherence; • Requires aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios. Based upon existing scenarios (e.g.: Energy-Climate Reference Scenario 2013). • 4

LUISA – Main technical characteristics • Geographical coverage: EU28 • Spatial resolution: 100m • Thematic resolution: 9 main classes (+ agricultural breakdown + ‘abandoned’ land uses) • Temporal resolution: yearly • Time span: up to 2050 • Base map: refined CORINE Land Cover data 100 m LUISA – Main technical characteristics 5

LUISA – Components and Workflow Demand module Macro-economic Models Sector-specific policies Demand settings Other modelling settings Land Validation tools requirements Allocation module Current land-use Policy request Policy-related suitabilities Allocation procedures Location-specific suitabilities Projected Projected Projected land population map accessibility map use change Impact analysis Policy-related parameters Indicators algorithms Other parameters Visualisation tool Visualisation tool Dissemination Territorial indicators Territorial indicators Continental, national Urban indicators Urban scale and regional scale LUISA Indicators - Overview Work Supporting Indicators for characterising Leisure ecosystems, biodiversity European regions in terms of Land Function Indicators efficiency in resources use and Land and for measuring progress towards Regulation water based services products defined goals . Provision of Housing and Transport 6

LUISA Indicators – Regional characterisation Outline of the presentation 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform 2. Current configuration of LUISA 3. Energy-related applications 4. On-going and prospective work 7

Energy-related applications Availability of biomass Biomass availability mapping : forest, primary agricultural residues, dedicated energy crops. Inclusion of technical and environmental criteria, and competing uses. Cost supply curves for forest-based wood for energy Cost of harvesting the biomass resource for energy uses ( engineering costing approach ). Logistics Local optimisation of biomass collection and post-harvesting. Shale gas extraction activities Scenario-based allocation of shale gas well pads ; assessment of potential land and water use conflicts. Solar energy Potentially suitable location for the installation of photovoltaic systems across the European territory. Coal mine methane Scenario analysis. Biomass resources and possible uses From the local availability of biomass resources, to a model to optimise biomass storage and biomass processing plants allocation, based on minimal transport and storage costs, order of business establishment, and location preferences. 8

Allocation and impact of shale gas extraction activities Allocation of well pads It is based on a suitability index (dynamic in time) that reproduces the economic profitability of conducting extraction activities at a specific location: • Geological parameters Availability of resources • • Availability of infrastructures Proximity to sensitive targets • Alternative Scenarios Technological parameters (rate of development, well density and • land requirements, water consumption, water recycling rate); Legislative options (current and restrictive policy provisions) • Allocation and impact of shale gas extraction activities 9

Outline of the presentation 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform 2. Current configuration of LUISA 3. Energy-related applications 4. On-going and prospective work On-going and planned activities Technical improvements and policy updates The platform is constantly updated, also in order to ensure consistency with the most up-to-date policy provisions at European level. Validation activities Population allocation, land use modelling, regional land use demand, cross-model comparisons (BBSR, University of Bonn, LUC4C Project), transport network diffusion. Exploratory research EREBILAND Project 10

EREBILAND – European Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape Aim Supporting innovative efficient patterns of regional energy supply and demand in Europe. LUISA , JRC-EU-TIMES , RHOMOLO deployed for assessing the efficiency of measures on energy production and sectoral final consumption, and related regional development strategies. Based on the granular territorial disaggregation of information, and the development of optimization scenarios at regional scale based on the concept of dynamic land functions. PRODUCT : Regional European Energy Landscape map (NUTS-2) Thank you! http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu http://sa.jrc.ec.europa.eu http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/our-activities/scientific-achievements/Land-Use-Modelling-Platform.html 11