The Future of Autonomous Vehicles 29 August 2019 An Interim Report - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Future of Autonomous Vehicles 29 August 2019 An Interim Report based on Multiple Expert Discussions

CONTEXT • WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM • THE WAY FORWARD • OPENING QUESTIONS • INSIGHTS TO DATE • HALF-WAY REFLECTIONS • ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS • NEXT STEPS • Contents This document provides a half-time overview of the key insights on the future of AV. Based on output from 5 expert workshops, it shares primary views and highlights area of debate for the second phase of discussions taking place later this year.

CONTEXT

A wicked problem is a social or cultural problem that is difficult or impossible to solve for as many as four reasons: 1. Incomplete or contradictory knowledge, 2. The number of people and opinions involved, 3. The large economic burden, and 4. The interconnected nature of these problems with other problems. A Wicked Problem The future of autonomous vehicles can be considered to be a complex ‘wicked’ problem. To address it, we need to understand and challenge the views of many different experts.

Future of Autonomous Vehicles 22 MAY 2019 Frankfurt C Common Standards Key Insights at Halfway Point Inadequate Harmonisation More Congestion O Truck Automation Incentives for Collaboration First / Last Mile F Communication between Systems Acceptance of Accidents Cyber Security Risks Melbourne 13 JUN 2019 C Data Sharing More Congestions Security Systems O Full Truck Automation First / Last Mile Robo-taxi Model F Reimagining Planning Los Angeles 28 MAR 2019 Safety of AV ROI C Inadequate Harmonisation Rethinking Planning Common Standards O Mobility as a Service Wellington 11 JUN 2019 Public Private Partnerships First / Last Mile C Data Sharing F Deeper Collaboration Security Systems Social Impact Common Standards Data Connectivity O Rethinking Planning Remote Support Centres First / Last Mile F Social Equity Road Deaths per 100,000 Citizens AV is Public Transport (WHO, 2018) MaaS TOTAL Australia 5.6 Germany 4.1 New Zealand 7.8 17 JAN 2018 Singapore 3.6 Singapore 07 JUN 2019 USA 12.4 Canada 5.8 C Data Sharing Inadequate Harmonisation China 18.2 Security Systems India 22.6 Israel 4.2 O Robo Taxis Japan 4.1 Truck Automation S Korea 9.8 Urban Delivery Sweden 2.8 F Environmental Impact UAE 18.1 Insurance and Liability UK 3.1 Less vs More Congestion Top 25 AV Ready Nations C Top 3 Challenges O Top 3 Opportunities F Top 3 Future Issues KPMG https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/nl/pdf/2019/sector/autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index-2019.pdf Five Expert Workshops To date we have run five expert workshops in key locations for AV which have identified major challenges, new opportunities and emerging issues for the next decade.

Initial Hosts Leading organisations involved in the hosting the first five events include a mix of transport agencies, universities, trade bodies and companies.

WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM

Future of Autonomous Vehicles Google Baidu Tesla Lyft Uber Volvo Where we have come from 1939 GM Futurama Concept - Google completes 500,000 Amazon predicts drone Lyft announces partnership Starsky Robotics truck World’s Fair – New York miles of autonomous driving deliveries within 5 years with NuTonomy technology unveiled 1945 Cruise control invented Caterpillar starts robotics trail Tesla announces Autopilot Peugeot-PSA announces Baidu announces Apollo AV partnership with NuTonomy platform and fund 1953 RCA Labs test wire-guided NuTonomy spun out of MIT 2014 UK Government allows Uber completes 2m miles in US Federal AV policy 2020 and beyond miniature car AV testing automated testing 2.0 agreed 1963 UK TRRL automatic vehicle guidance Port of Rotterdam launches Ford Lyft partnership Didi Chuxing spins out Oxbotica spun out of Bosch and Nvidia announce research project launched automated guided vehicles announced self-driving car unit Oxford University AI partnership 1967 Remote controlled car tested 2013 FlixMobility founded in Mercedes S Class includes Intel acquires Mobileye Lyft partners with drive.ai Ford acquires Journey at Ohio State University Germany semi-automated features for $15bn Holding and Quantum Signal AI 1968 Vienna Convention on Road Traffic Amazon acquires Kiva Google fully automated Apple starts testing Waymo testing without a Baidu completes 1m miles enforces driver control of car Systems for $775m prototype tested autonomous vehicles safety driver of test driving 1977 First Semi-Automated Vehicle Test Lyft founded as Zimride NIO founded in Shanghai Ford invests $1bn in Argo AI NuTonomy acquired by Toyota partners with Baidu’s - Tsukuba, Japan Aptiv for $400m Apollo platform 1980 German Bundeswehr tests military Google completes 300,000 Tesla semi-truck announced Amazon announces launch 2015 Apple launches project Titan Audi and Nvidia announce robot vehicle automated driving miles of drone delivery for Prime AI partnership 1987 EU Eureka Prometheus 2012 Florida authorises AV testing Uber recruits key talent from Daimler and Nvidia Beijing permits AV testing on Apple acquires Drive.ai Project launched CMU robotics centre announce AI partnership public roads 1991 US Congress passes the ISTEA Peloton truck AV company Tesla Autopilot capability 2017 Intel invests in HERE 2018 US Federal AV policy Volvo and Uber launch Transportation Authorization bill founded introduced 3.0 agreed self-driving production car 1994 Eureka Prometheus project 2011 Waymo semi truck Lyft IPO Nevada authorises AV Audi, BMW and Daimler acquire Waymo spun off as separate robotic cars drive 1000km testing announced HERE for $3bn from Nokia company from Google 1995 Carnegie Mellon first US coast-to-coast 2010 TUB self-driving vehicles Amazon drone testing in Self-driving Uber car Uber IPO Volvo launches Drive Me autonomous drive 4500km demo in Germany Cambridge, UK kills pedestrian project in Sweden 1995 Mercedes S Class drives from Munich Uber founded 2016 Volvo pledges that by 2020 Tesla Autopilot completes Baidu completes 140,000 km Rio Tinto starts autonomous to Copenhagen using computer vison no one will be killed in a Volvo 300m miles of operation of self-driving in a year in Beijing truck mining with Caterpillar Inc 1996 Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway 2009 Google Self-Driving Car GM invests $500m in Lyft US Federal AV policy agreed Volvo launches Vera Tesla ‘Autonomy Day’ Research Association Demo – Japan project launched autonomous vehicle partnership autonomous platform announcements 1997 USDOT Automated Highway System 2008 Rio Tinto launch Mine of the Pony.ai founded Lyft completes 5,000 self- 2019 Tesla driver killed in GM acquires Cruise Demo - San Diego, California Future project driving car rides in Las Vegas Autopilot mode Automation for $1bn 1998 Google founded 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge – Samsung acquires Harman China permits city governments Port of Rotterdam tests Apple invests $1bn in Chinese California Industries for $8bn to issue AV road licences autonomous navigation ride share Didi Chuxing Uber AV prototypes in San Baidu begins mass production 1999 Mobileye founded – Tel Aviv 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge – Ford and VC firms invest California DMV grants permit Francisco and Pittsburgh of Apollo self-driving bus California in NuTonomy to Waymo for testing 2000 Adaptative cruise control Drive.ai spun out of Uber shuts down AV Apollo shuttle bus trial at 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge – Qualcomm acquires NXP launched by Bosch Stanford University truck project Shanghai Expo California for $39bn Baidu founded 2003 Tesla Founded Toyota and Uber announce Uber acquires Otto truck Waymo completes 5m miles Waymo subsidiary partnership start-up of testing established in Shanghai AV Development Timeline The possibility of developing an autonomous vehicle has been explored for many years. Since 1939, projects have been building momentum towards today’s intensive activity.

THE WAY FORWARD

THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions Around the World Review Map the Explore gaps Identify the Prepare and Support hosts existing emerging via global key priority share global with research landscape dialogue opportunities report implications Global Insights This project is identifying where and what the key opportunities are by collectively challenging and sharing the future of AVs and the key drivers of change across a number of pivotal locations.

OPENING QUESTIONS