Sm Smart Columbus De Dealer ersh ship p Eng ngagement Workshop Opportunities and Barriers For the EV Secondary Market Dr. Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu Thursday September 15, 2016 Columbus, OH
NEW CAR BUYERS AND PEV BUYERS: Few New car Buyers creates the secondary market ICE Buyers PEV Buyers 30% 4% of HH purchased 2+ 25% cars = 28+% of new cars 20% 21% bought 15% First PEV 1 car = 72% Had a PEV of new car 10% purchases Have 2+ PEVs 5% 75% of the households did not 0% purchase new car in 2012 2013 2014 2015 the last 3 years Newest PEV model year • 4% of the households are responsible for almost one third of the market over the last 3 years 2010-2012 • Up to 15% of PEV buyers are on their second PEV
The used car market California Perspective Ownership Status by Model Year Income level by number of new vehicles purchased in the last 5 years 120% 100% 80% % New 60% % Used 40% 20% 0% 6Y OLD 5Y OLD 4Y OLD 3Y OLD 2Y OLD 1Y OLD NE W
Plug lug in in Elec lectric ic Vehic icle le (P (PEV) ) Purchase Motiv tivatio ions Not using Performance gas MPG Range Electric experience
2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The OEM Perspective $50,000 Residual Value 48.3% $39,145 $41,900 $41,140 $41,000 $40,280 $39,147 $40,000 $37,227 $36,328 $36,171 $34,185 $34,170 $33,798 $32,855 $32,789 $32,000 $30,000 $28,650 Priced paid New $28,000 $27,488 $26,643 MSRP $25,429 $24,672 Paid Price Minus Incentives $23,250 $22,750 Purchased Used on 2013 $21,576 $20,871 $18,894 $19,738 Purchased Used on 2014 $20,000 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015
2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The Seller Perspective $50,000 Residual Value 55.9% $41,900 $41,140 $41,000 $40,280 $39,145 $39,147 $40,000 $37,227 $36,328 $36,171 $33,798 $34,185 $34,170 $32,855 $32,789 $32,000 $30,000 $28,650 Priced paid New $28,000 $27,488 $26,643 MSRP $25,429 $24,672 Paid Price Minus Incentives $23,250 $22,750 Purchased Used on 2013 $21,576 $20,871 $18,894 $19,738 Purchased Used on 2014 $20,000 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015
2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The Buyer Perspective $50,000 Residual Value 68.7% $41,900 $41,140 $41,000 $40,280 $39,145 $39,147 $40,000 $37,227 $36,328 $36,171 $34,185 $34,170 $33,798 $32,855 $32,789 $32,000 $27,488 $30,000 $28,650 Priced paid New $28,000 $26,643 MSRP $25,429 $24,672 Paid Price Minus Incentives $23,250 $22,750 Purchased Used on 2013 $21,576 $20,871 $18,894 $19,738 Purchased Used on 2014 $20,000 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015
Residual Value is Between 34% and 99% price minus 2015 price over 2015 price over 2015 price over Price Minus Used Price in Used Price in MSRP Full Price incentives of a Incentives 2014 2015 MSRP Paid as New new car price 2015 model Nissan Leaf, 2011 $33,572 $ 34,990 $ 26,815 $ 15,497 $11,463 $ 22,779 34% 43% 50% Nissan Leaf, 2012 $36,882 $ 35,852 $ 26,564 $12,508 $ 22,779 34% 47% 55% Nissan Leaf, 2013 $31,517 $ 33,488 $ 24,380 $13,912 $ 22,779 44% 57% 61% Tesla Model S, 2013 $87,217 $ 96,732 $ 87,974 $67,338 $ 105,998 77% 77% 64% Ford Fusion Energy, 2013 $39,235 $ 41,243 $ 35,936 $25,288 $ 36,214 64% 70% 70% Chevrolet Volt, 2012 $39,145 $ 41,140 $ 33,798 $ 24,672 $20,871 $ 27,488 53% 62% 76% Chevrolet Volt, 2013 $39,174 $ 41,000 $ 32,855 $ 24,672 $20,871 $ 27,488 53% 64% 76% Ford C-Max Energy, 2013 $31,665 $ 35,014 $ 29,664 $22,875 $ 29,900 72% 77% 77% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2012 $38,195 $ 36,211 $ 32,273 $ 24,823 $22,973 $ 27,951 60% 71% 82% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2013 $38,704 $ 34,259 $ 30,394 $24,412 $ 27,951 63% 80% 87% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2014 $34,307 $ 31,726 $ 27,759 $27,525 $ 27,951 80% 99% 98%
Dealers are the main source for used PEVs Where did you Purchase Your Used "PEV" A used car dealership (including online) 1% 15% A car dealership of the brand I purchased 30% 8% Other A private owner 46% An online service (Like eBay or similar. I did not see the car before purchasing it.)
Please rank the top three most influential information sources when you were deciding whether to acquire a PEV. Non-PEV driver Non-profit organization Social Media Government agency Dealer/salesperson My employer News story Electric utility Manufacturer website Online discussion forum Other (Please specify below) Vehicle test drive Another PEV driver Third-party vehicle review (Consumer Reports, etc.) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Which of the following statements best describes your interest in acquiring a Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) when you started your search for your {mainpev}? I was very interested in a PEV I was only interested in the specific PEV make/model I purchased I was only interested in a PEV, but considered multiple PEV make/models I had some interest in a PEV I had no interest in a PEV I did not know PEVs existed 0 50 100 150 200 250
Share of Buyers who are "not aware of the federal tax credit (up to $7,500)“ An online service (Like eBay or similar. I did not see the car before purchasing it.) A private owner Other A car dealership of the brand I purchased A used car dealership (including online) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
What about technical knowledge? When buying your {mainpev} did you ask about the condition of its battery? Yes, I received a battery report from an independent tester] 1.4% Yes, I received a battery report from the dealer 13.3% Yes, I looked at the dashboard display when the battery was fully… 15.8% Yes, I searched online or consulted other sources regarding the… 17.9% Yes, I asked the seller 27.6% None of the above 1.5% No, I did not ask 11.2% No, the car is under warranty 41.8%
What do we know about the secondary market so far • Residual value is in the eye of the beholder as • Price of new PEVs dropped over time • Some buyers had the right knowledge to calculate actual cost • Most of the buyers were looking for a used PEV, very few start with a different car in mind. • Knowledge (awareness and education) is most likely the key for a strong secondary market
Thank you Questions? Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu
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