The Employment Impact of Autonomous Vehicles Brandon Geraci - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Employment Impact of Autonomous Vehicles Brandon Geraci

History

Levels of automation  Level - 0  Human Driver (Base Model)  Level - 1  Blind Spot Detection (20k level)  Level - 2  Braking in highway conditions (Luxery Level)  Level - 3  Cameras, Radar, Lidar (Tesla Level)  Level - 4  High automation (Future Tesla) // Perhaps in 5 years  Level - 5  Full Automation (no need for humans) // Perhaps in Ten or more Years

15,500,000 The number of people with jobs that could be impacted by the use of autonomous vehicles. That is 5% of the U.S. Population, And 10% of the work force.

Cons  Job loss  Motor Vehicle Operators  Other On-the-Job Drivers  Education Advantage  Cost of unemployment

Motor Vehicle Operators  Jobs  Truck Drivers  Delivery Drivers  Taxi Cab Drivers  Uber/Lyft  Low-income  On average are less educated  Receive less benefits  Make up 3.8 million jobs in the U.S.

Other On-the-Job Drivers  Jobs  At home Medical Care  Construction  Garbage Collection  Have more skills  Less impacted by Autonomous Vehicles  Have other skills that act as a safety net  Make up 11.7 million job in the U.S.

New jobs with new skills  What jobs? Are those at the same education level?  “We ultimately need to help today’s workers—drivers, factory workers, and beyond—discover where demand for skills will be in five to 10 years and help them gain the necessary expertise and experience to do them well.” –article on Quartz  What are those skills? Does the average person impacted by autonomous vehicles have those skills?

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Pros  Saftey  Productivity  Enviornmental Impact

Safety  1-2 will die in a motor vehicle crash during this presentation  101 people die daily in a motor vehicle crash.  Some ninety percent of motor vehicle crashes are caused at least in part by human error. [1]

Annual United States Road Crash Statistics  Over 37,000 people die in road crashes each year  An additional 2.35 million are injured or disabled  Over 1,600 children under 15 years of age die each year  Nearly 8,000 people are killed in crashes involving drivers ages 16-20  Road crashes cost the U.S. $230.6 billion per year, or an average of $820 per person  Road crashes are the single greatest annual cause of death of healthy U.S. citizens traveling abroad [3]

Productivity  Reducing the price for goods and services  Reduce shipping times  Save companies money

Save the Environment  Reduce energy consumption/ fuel usuage  Less Polution  More efficient routes

A future without traffic lights is fast, efficient, and terrifying [6]

Ethical Evaluation of Autonomous replacing Jobs  Kantian Evaluation  From a software Engineers perspective  A software engineer wants to create a AI that can make a vehicle fully autonomous. He wants to do this because of safety.  This is right under a Kantian evaluation because the software engineer has good intentions, despite the negative impacts this could have.  From a shipping companies CEOs perspective  A CEO orders a fleet of autonomous vehicles and sends out a email to all the drivers that they are being let go. The autonomous vehicles will save the company X amount of dollars and to be more competitive with other companies.  This is wrong under a Kantian evaluation because the CEO is firing his workers just to save the company money.

Ethical Evaluation of Autonomous replacing Jobs (continued)  Act Utilitarian Evalutation  The use of autonomous vehicles could potentionally leave 3.8 million workers without a job. These workers, on average, are low educated and the only skill they have is driving. This skill will no longer be required do to AVs.  11.7 million workers will also be impacted in some degree with the use of Avs  Roads are safer, less accidents caused by human drivers on the road.  Less pollution  Potentially lowering the cost of products and services. This could help low income or unemployed families who have been displaced from their driving jobs.

What is the solution?  Can we use the social contract theory?  Laws?  Regulations?  Tax companies that use AVs  Subsidize displaced workers.

Questions?

Sources http://www.esa.doc.gov/sites/default/files/Employment%20Impact%20Autonomo 1. us%20Vehicles_0.pdf http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/human-error-cause-vehicle-crashes 2. http:// 3. asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safety-facts/road-crash-statistics https://www.economist.com/node/21678814 National Center for Education 4. Statistics Economics (McConnell) Chapter 27 Business Cycle, Unemployment, and 5. Inflation, McGraw Hill Higher http://senseable.mit.edu/light-traffic/ 6.