The effect of first union dissolution on Uruguayan womens - PDF document

The effect of first union dissolution on Uruguayan women’s reproductive behavior Mariana Fernández Soto Programa de Población Universidad de la República 1. Introduction In Uruguay, some significant changes have occurred in nuptiality and fertility. These can summarize as increased cohabitation to the detriment of marriage, increased marital dissolutions, falling fertility below replacement, and rise out wedlock births. Marital dissolutions have become widespread events, leading, in many cases, to an increase in the number of short-term relationships throughout the life course. More people out of the first union at reproductive ages, growing rates of second (and even third) unions, and thus rising rates of step households, which may include (more) children. The relationship between marital and reproductive life seems to be changing as marital trajectories diversify. The changes in nuptiality and fertility have been studied but separately (Cabella, 1998, 2008, 2014; Fernández Soto, 2010; Filguerira, 1996; Nathan, 2015; Nathan, Pardo, & Cabella, 2016; Paredes, 2003; Varela, Fostik, & Fernández Soto, 2012; Varela, Pardo, Lara, Nathan, & Tenenbaum, 2014). This study seeks to relate changes in nuptiality and fertility, especially among marital dissolutions and reproductive behavior. The objective of this work is to analyze the effect of this dissolution in the accumulated fertility and the factors associated with the probability of having a child after the break- up of the first union. To do this, I use the life-course approach. First, I analyze two groups of women: those that only had the first union and did not dissolve it and those that experienced the dissolution of the first union. Second, I estimate multivariate regression models to study the effect of dissolution of the first union on reproductive behavior. This research aims to contribute to the explanations of the decline of fertility in Uruguay from a new approach that favors the interaction between the marital and reproductive life. It should note that this study is among the first in Latin America, a region where some of the transformations of the second demographic transition have been corroborated and specifically contributes to the literature on multi-partner-fertility with a case of a middle- income country, decentring the discussion of the northern hemisphere. The paper is structured in three sections. First, the antecedents of the subject are presented, then the objectives, data and methods, and finally the main results. 2. Background Traditionally, Demographic studies have conceptualized nuptiality as a determinant of fertility (Bongaarts, 1978; Bongaarts and Potter, 1983). The proportion of women in a union is considered to be an indicator of exposure to the risk of procreation, as the vast majority of population conceive reproduction in the context of stable marital relationships. Conversely, marital instability is expected to reduce the proportion of women in a union and, consequently, it has been conceived as an inhibitor of the exposure to reproductive risk (Bongaarts, 1978; Bongaarts and Potter, 1983; Leone and Hinde, 1

2002). Therefore, scholars have interpreted that the increase in separations and divorces are associated with fertility decline (Leone and Hinde, 2007). In recent decades there have been substantial changes in patterns of union and marital dissolution, as well as a general decline in the level of fertility in Western countries. Despite having children, partnering, and separating are often interrelated events, it is not clear how one affects the other, nor what the specific determinants for each of them are (Leone and Hinde, 2007; Guzzo, 2014). The increase in separations and divorces results in a larger number of people living outside a union - with different ages and different reproductive outcomes that may include more or fewer children, to even childlessness. When this population increases and dissolutions occur at earlier ages, the chances of establishing a new relationship growth, and new unions may include (more) children. Also, it becomes more frequent for people to have their children in different marital situations, i.e., outside the union, in a single union or second or subsequent unions. Consequently, it is expected that marital dissolutions will affect reproductive decisions, making it more feasible to have children with more than one partner. In the literature, this phenomenon is referred to as multiple- partner-fertility (MPF) (Di Nallo, 2013; Guzzo, 2014). Thomson et al. (2002) distinguish three primary motivations for having children in a post-rupture union. 1) The "commitment effect," which leads to having a child with the new partner to strengthen the engagement of the new union. 2) The "brothers effect," the people who have kids of the first union want to give their children siblings. 3) Moreover, the "parenting status effect," people wish to have at least one child and to become parents (Beaujouan and Solaz, 2008, Thomson et al., 2002). To this latter effect, we add that studies show that it is more likely to have a child with a new partner (after dissolution) if the partner does not have any children (Guzzo, 2014; Holland & Thomson, 2011). The studies who were examining the relationship between marital dissolutions, the conformation of new unions and fertility have been developed mainly in Europe. These have focused primarily on the determinants of the intensity and timing of the fecundity of the second unions (Di Nallo, 2013; Beaujouan & Solaz, 2008; Buber & Prskawetz, 2000; Leone &Hinde, 2007; Manlove, Logan, Ikramullah, & Holcombe, 2008; Spijker, Simó & Solsona, 2012; Thomson & Li, 2002; Beaujouan & Wiles, 2011). Studies on the subject show that the increase in dissolutions produces two opposing forces. On the one hand, the duration of exposure to fertility decreases. On the other, the risk of formation of new unions increases where the partners´ desire for children may be is present (Beaujouan y Solaz, 2008; Spijker, Simó y Solsona, 2012; Beaujouan & Wiles, 2011). Other studies also show that the depressing or driving effect of marital dissolution on fertility also depends on the timing of the formation of the first union, the dissolution, and the first child birth (Thomson et al., 2012; Meggiolaro and Ongaro, 2010; Jansen, Wijckmans and Van Bavel, 2008). For example, the study of the French case, carried out by Thomson et al. (2012), shows that differences in final fertility between the groups of people with and without marital dissolution tend to narrow if the formation of union and dissolution occurs after the age of thirty. Thus, the age at dissolution determines, to a certain extent, the likelihood of a union after separation, as well as the odds of having children in that eventual union (Jansen, Wijckmans, Bavel, & Van_Bavel, 2009). At an intermediate point, we find other studies that suggest that the complexation of the conjugal trajectory does not per se have a negative or positive effect on fertility. The effect varies according to the contexts and schedules of union, dissolution, and 2