th AIM International Workshop The 10 th AIM International Workshop The 10 The Economic Valuation of the Health Impact The Economic Valuation of the Health Impact by Air Pollution in Dhaka, Bangladesh by Air Pollution in Dhaka, Bangladesh � Md. Md. Murshid Murshid Aktar Aktar & Koji Shimada, Ritsumeikan Univ. & Koji Shimada, Ritsumeikan Univ. � Date : March 11, 2005 Date : March 11, 2005 � � � Session VII Session VII � – 10:00 � Time : 09:40 Time : 09:40 – 10:00 � � Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall � National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan Tsukuba, Japan
About Dhaka City About Dhaka City � Population : 9,912,908 (2001 Population Census, BBS) � Area:1464 sq. km (The Dhaka Statistical Metropolitan Area (DSMA) � Annual Average Rain Fall: 2060mm (approximately) � Average Temperature: 20 ° C(Winter dec-feb) 28 ° C (Summer) � Life Expectancy: 62years
Major Policy: Introduction of Lead Free Gasoline from July 1, 1999. � Lead in Ambient Air of Dhaka decreased Approximately two-thirds
Major Policy: Jan 1, 2003 Phase Out of All Existing Two-Stroke Engine Three-Wheelers from Dhaka Levels of PM10 before and after removal of Baby Taxis (Phase-II) 600 (microgram/ m3) 500 400 PM10 300 Average 200 100 0 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 / / / / / / / 5 7 9 1 2 4 6 2 2 2 3 / / / 1 1 1 / / / / 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 � PM10 concentrations in Dhaka Declines by 31%
Major Policy: Jan 1, 2003 Phase Out of All Existing Two-Stroke Engine Three-Wheelers from Dhaka Levels of PM2.5 before and after removal of Baby Taxis (phase-II) 350 300 Microgram/m3 250 PM2.5 200 150 Average 100 50 0 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 / / / / / / / 5 7 9 1 2 4 6 2 2 2 3 / / / 1 1 1 / / / / 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 � PM2.5 concentrations in Dhaka Declines by 41%
Estimating Health Impact of Air Pollution in Dhaka City Establishing Concentration Response Function (CRF). Pollution condition in Dhaka city Estimation of Health Impact
Concentration Response Function (CRF) Δ = ∗ Δ ∗ H c P POP t te e Δ = Where , change in = H Health effects of type t t = c Coefficien t of the CRF of health effect t te and pollutant e per year = P Ambient concentrat ion of the pollutant e . e = POP Population exposed to the pollutant
Estimated Percentage Change in Mortality Estimated Percentage Change in Mortality 3 Change in PM10 Associated with a 10 ug/m 3 Change in PM10 Associated with a 10 ug/m (based on Meta Analytical Reviews) (based on Meta Analytical Reviews) Meta Analytical Number Year Coefficient Coefficient CI 95% Meta Analytical Number Year CI 95% Reviews of study Reviews of study Included Included 39 2000 1.01 0.83, 1.19 0.83, 1.19 Metropolitan Mexico 39 2000 1.01 Metropolitan Mexico City Study City Study Study for Six Cities 9 2000 0.84 NA NA Study for Six Cities 9 2000 0.84 ( Developing Country ) ( Developing Country ) Study for Eight Major 2002 1.026 1.009, 1.009, Study for Eight Major 2002 1.026 Italian Cities 1.043 Italian Cities 1.043 Jakarta Study 6 1994 0.96 1.30, 1.30, Jakarta Study 6 1994 0.96 0.62* 0.62* 67 2001 1.05 0.5 0.5- -1.6 1.6 California Study 67 2001 1.05 California Study (range) (range)
Estimated Percentage Change in Mortality Associated Estimated Percentage Change in Mortality Associated with a 10 ug/m3 Change in PM10 with a 10 ug/m3 Change in PM10 - Developing Countries Experiences Developing Countries Experiences - Study Year Mean Age Coefficient Study Year Mean Age Coefficient PM10 Group of CRF PM10 Group of CRF Mexico city Study 2000 45 all 1.83 Mexico city Study 2000 45 all 1.83 Bangkok City Study 1999 65 All 1.70 Bangkok City Study 1999 65 All 1.70 Sao Paulo Study 1995 82 65> 1.31 Sao Paulo Study 1995 82 65> 1.31 Santiago Study 1996 115 All 1.13 Santiago Study 1996 115 All 1.13 Delhi Study 1997 377(TSP) all all 0.4 Delhi Study 1997 377(TSP) 0.4 Beijing (Residential 1994 350(TSP) All All 0.7 Beijing (Residential 1994 350(TSP) 0.7 Area) Study Area) Study
Coefficient of the CRF of the Quantifiable Coefficient of the CRF of the Quantifiable Health Effects Health Effects (Associated with a 1ug/m3 change in PM10) (Associated with a 1ug/m3 change in PM10) Health Impact Coefficient Health Impact Coefficient Mortality 0.096 Mortality 0.096 Respiratory Hospital Admission (RHA) 0.000012 Respiratory Hospital Admission (RHA) 0.000012 Emergency Room Visit (ERV) 0.0002354 Emergency Room Visit (ERV) 0.0002354 Restricted Activity Days (RAD) 0.0575 Restricted Activity Days (RAD) 0.0575 (children) Lower Respiratory Illness (children) Lower Respiratory Illness (LRI) 0.00169 (LRI) 0.00169 Asthma Attacks 0.0326 Asthma Attacks 0.0326 Respiratory Symptom Days (RSD) 0.183 Respiratory Symptom Days (RSD) 0.183 Chronic Bronchitis (CB) 0.0000612 Chronic Bronchitis (CB) 0.0000612
Dhaka City
PROPOSED NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY PROPOSED NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS (NAAQS) FOR BANGLADESH STANDARDS (NAAQS) FOR BANGLADESH Source - Air Quality Management Project (AQMP) Source - Air Quality Management Project (AQMP) Proposed Bangladesh Proposed Bangladesh Pollutant Averaging Time Pollutant Averaging Time Standard Standard g/m 3 3 150 µ µg/m 24- -Hours Hours 150 24 PM 10 PM 10 3 50 µ µg/m g/m 3 Annual 50 Annual 3 g/m 3 PM 2.5 65 µ µg/m 24- -Hours Hours PM 65 24 2.5 g/m 3 3 15 µ µg/m Annual 15 Annual 3 (140 ppb) 365 µ µg/m g/m 3 (140 ppb) 24- -Hours Hours 365 24 SO 2 SO 3 (30 ppb) 2 g/m 3 80 µ µg/m (30 ppb) Annual 80 Annual 3 (53 ppb) g/m 3 NO 2 100µ µg/m (53 ppb) Annual NO 100 Annual 2 Six Pollutant (PM 10 , PM 2.5 , CO, SO 2 , NO 2 and O 3 ) are measured Six Pollutant (PM 10 , PM 2.5 , CO, SO 2 , NO 2 and O 3 ) are measured under the supervision of MOE and Financed by WB with Air under the supervision of MOE and Financed by WB with Air Quality Management Project (AQMP) Quality Management Project (AQMP)
3 ) Concentration of PM 10 in micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 50 0 April, 02 average standard 150 Proposed 24 hour May, 02 June, 02 µg/m July, 02 3 August, 02 24 Hours Average PM 10 at CAMS, Sangsad bhaban September, 02 October, 02 Monthly Maximum, Average and Minimum PM 10 November, 02 December, 02 January, 03 Maximum February, 03 March, 03 April, 03 Average May, 03 average standard 50 Proposed annual June, 03 Month µg/m July, 03 3 August, 03 Minimum September, 03 October, 03 November, 03 December, 03 January, 04 February, 04 March, 04 120µg/m3 Average of 31 months = April, 04 May,04 June, 04 July, 04 August, 04 September, 04 October, 04
Fig. 2 Sulfur Dioxide at CAMS, Sangsad Bhaban Monthly Average, Maximum and Minimum Concentration From October 2002 to November 2003 80 70 Proposed annual Concentration of SO2 in ppb 60 average standard ppb 50 Maximum 40 Average 30 Minimum 20 10 0 November, 02 December, 02 November, 03 October, 02 January, 03 February, 03 March, 03 May, 03 June, 3 July, 03 October, 03 Septenber, 03 April, 03 August, 03 -10 Month Source:Trends in Ambient Air Quality in the Dhaka City Shahana Akhter, S M Abdul Quadir and Amir H. Khan
Fig. 3 Nitrogen Oxides at CAMS, Sangsad Bhaban Monthly Maximum, Average and Minimum NOx From November 2002 to November 2003 700 650 Concentration of NOx in ppb 600 550 500 450 Proposed Maximum 400 National Standard 350 Average ppb 300 Minimum 250 200 150 100 50 0 November, 02 December, 02 November, 03 January, 03 February, 03 March, 03 May, 03 June, 3 July, 03 O ctober, 03 Septenber, 03 April, 03 August, 03 Month Source:Trends in Ambient Air Quality in the Dhaka City Shahana Akhter, S M Abdul Quadir and Amir H. Khan
Daily Air Quality Index 2003 - 2004 500 extremely unhealthy 450 400 very unhealthy 350 A Q I V a lu e 300 unhealthy 250 200 good 150 100 50 0 1 0 /2 /0 3 1 1 /2 /0 3 1 2 /2 /0 3 1 0 /2 /0 4 1 1 /2 /0 4 1 /2 /0 3 2 /2 /0 3 3 /2 /0 3 4 /2 /0 3 5 /2 /0 3 6 /2 /0 3 7 /2 /0 3 8 /2 /0 3 9 /2 /0 3 1 /2 /0 4 2 /2 /0 4 3 /2 /0 4 4 /2 /0 4 5 /2 /0 4 6 /2 /0 4 7 /2 /0 4 8 /2 /0 4 9 /2 /0 4 Date
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