The E Effect ct o of P Population ion Aging on P Polit itics ics: : The Dif Difficulty of of Cou ountering “S “Sil ilver P Pow ower” ” in in Japan Presented at “Is Japan a Silver Democracy? Demographics, Politics, and Policy Choices for the 21st Century” 3 December 2014, Brookings Institution, Washington DC, USA Mi Michio io Umed Umeda (PhD Mic 2011 ) Michigan an 20 Assista tant t Profes essor, E Ehime U Univers ersity 1
Starting Point: Cross-national Comparison of Public Spending on Elderly and Non-Elderly Citizens - ENSR: The elderly to non-elderly spending ratio (Lynch 2006) - The ratio of government spending target to elderly and non-elderly citizens (e.g. old age pension vs. unemployment benefits, family allowance, and education and training expenditure) 2
Elderly/Non-Elderly Spending Ratio (ENSR) average 1985-2000 (Lynch 2006, T able 2.7 pp 30) 45 42.3 40 38.5 35 28.9 30 24.7 25 18.6 20 17.4 16.0 15.7 14.0 15 12.9 11.4 10.4 10.2 5.8 6.5 7.1 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.9 10 5 0 3
Percent Change in ENSR, 1960-2000 (Lynch 2006, T able 3.1 pp 45) 800 799 700 600 500 400 300 200 104 116 -80 -70 -58 -56 -53 -52 -32 -20 -6 17 23 42 49 50 76 86 92 100 0 -100 4
Huge Budget Deficit - The Japanese government is not a big spender in any sense (e.g. public spending/GDP). - However, Japan does not have enough tax or social security revenue to support benefits (e.g. pensions and medical service for elderly citizens). - As a result, Japan accumulates a large deficit each year to finance the current program, which will impose a heavy burden on future generations. 5
Question : - Politicians in Japan sometimes claim that we should raise taxes (e.g. consumption tax) in order “not to leave a debt to our children ( 子孫 に借金を残すな )” - At the same time, they rarely claim that we need benefit cuts (e.g. old-age pension) in order “not to leave a debt to our children.” - Why? Because it is politically suicidal! 6
Five reasons that politicians in Japan should not make grandmas unhappy (1): Number 1) There are more elderly than younger voters. - The median age of eligible voters in 2013 was 52 years (ref. US 2010 census: 45 years) 7
Japanese Population Structure of Eligible Voters as of Oct 2013 12,000 Median (52 years) is here 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 8
Five reasons that politicians should not make grandmas unhappy in Japan (2): T urnout 2) Elderly voters are much more likely to vote than the younger ones. - Japanese now live long and healthier, and the elderly have thus become more politically active than they were 30 years ago - The median age of voters in the 2013 Upper House election was 57 years (ref. US 2010 midterm: 53 years) 9
Lower House T urnout after Electoral Reform 1996-2009 90% 80% 20- 70% 30- 40- 60% 50- 60- 50% 70- 40% 30% 1996 2000 2003 2005 2009 2012 10
Five reasons that politicians should not make grandmas unhappy (3): Preference 3) Elderly voters have clear preferences on welfare issues. - Old age pension spending is generally popular among both the elderly and the young, at least according to ISSP 2006 survey. - There is a clear difference between voters aged more than 50 years and those less than 50 (over 60% support more spending vs. 11 roughly 45%).
Please show whether you would like to see more or less government spending in OLD AGE PENSIONS (ISSP2006 , Japan) 100% 80% much less 60% less same as now 40% more much more 20% 0% 12 20- 30- 40- 50- 60-
Five reasons that politicians should not make grandmas unhappy (4): Issue Salience 4) Elderly voters always care about “welfare” issues when they make voting decisions - Since 1972, Meisui electoral survey has asked voters which issues they care about when they make voting decisions at every Lower House general election. - The multiple-choice question means that we do not have to worry about other options. - The wording was changed slightly between surveys. 13
“Welfare” Issue Saliency, 1972-2009 (updated from Umeda 2012 based on Meisui Electoral Survey) 70% 65% 60% 55% 20- 50% 30- 45% 40- 50- 40% 60- 35% 30% 25% 20% 14 1972 1976 1979 1980 1983 1986 1990 1993 1996 2000 2003 2005 2009
Five reasons that politicians should not make grandmas unhappy (4): Issue Salience 4) Elderly voters always care about “welfare” issue when they make voting decisions - Elderly voters have regularly chosen the welfare issue in the last 40 years while younger voters had have others priorities. - This tendency is significant even after controlling for the relative political sophistication (i.e. overall issue attentiveness) of elderly voters. 15
Five reasons that politicians should not make grandmas unhappy (5): Institutions - 1 5) The electoral system gives additional power to elderly and/or more active voters - A small “minimum winning coalition” under SMD with low turnout: 30% of district voters is enough to keep winning. - As such, candidates tend to focus on small core and active group of voters while campaigning. 16
Five reasons that politicians should not make grandmas unhappy (5): Institutions - 2 5) The electoral system gives additional power to elderly and/or more active voters - Malapportionment gives some additional voice to districts with older and more rural voters. - Those of the Upper House SMD/MMD push the weighted up median age of the voters by one year. 17
Conclusion The combination of these five factors (i.e. numbers, turnout, preferences, issue saliency and institutions) makes any benefits cut for the elderly extremely difficult in Japan. We may need stronger political leadership and/ or a crisis to override the elderly’s “ silver power “in Japan’s democratic processes. It may happen in the US too… 18
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