Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies The case of the oil sands in Alberta COP23 Side Event, November 9 th , 2017, UK Pavillon Presentation by Jenny Lieu, Sussex University, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) Gordon MacKerron, Sussex University, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) Oscar Oscar van Vliet / CP / D-USYS
A GENDA • Introduction to TRANSrisk • UK nuclear power • Oil sands in Alberta • Renewable energy in Switzerland
C ASE S TUDY C OUNTRIES : A REAS STUDIED Overarching Research Question: What are the costs, benefits and risks & uncertainties associated with transitions pathways for climate change mitigation policies? Asia 12. China (SPRU) 13. India Americas (SPRU) Africa 1. Canada 14. Indonesia (SPRU) 11. Kenya (SEI) (SEI) Europe 2. Chile 3. Sweden (SEI) (CLAPESU 4. Netherlands (JIN) C) 5. UK (SPRU) 6. Poland (IBS) 7. Austria (Uni Graz) 8. Switzerland (ETHZ) 9. Spain (BC3) 10. Greece (NTUA/ UPRC)
Definitions ? Uncertainty • Incomplete knowledge • Lack of information • Disagreement of what is known Risk • Outcome is uncertain • Potential for negative consequences • Negative impact on livelihoods/society, environment, economy, and infrastructure… Source: IPPC, 2014
Likelihood (uncertainty low to high) Risk negative Implementation risk: Consequential risk: potential for a policy to potential of a policy to not be implemented, cause a negative Outcome given a barrier consequence Benefit Synergy/ co-benefit : positive positive outcomes that have benefit on multiple scales: e.g. actors, context (political, social, environmental etc.)
Context of risks & uncertainties …over time and space Environment Society Technology Economy
Risk related to our potential future pathways 1. Where do we want to go? 2. What actions are required to get there? • Risk (in implementation): what are the barriers to get there? 3. How might the future look like? • Risk (as a result): what could be a negative outcomes of that future option?
Risk & uncertainties: Pieces of the puzzle: Stakeholders Modelling Uncertainty Stakeholders Modelling Risk More difficult to define Less difficult to define
Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change Alberta’s two faces : Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies future pathways Source: taken by Ryan Abel, Source: Billy Chan Fort McKay Sustainability Office Jenny Lieu, Sussex University, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) content in collaboration with Luis D. Virla and Fort McKay Sustainability Office
I NTRODUCTION TO A LBERTA O IL S ANDS • Canada contributes 1.6% of global emissions and is one of the top 10 emitters • Fossil fuel production: biggest contributors comprising of 27%. • Alberta emits the most ~37.4 % in 201 • Fossil fuel industry sector and power generation in Alberta has increased emissions (53% from 1990-2005) • Alberta emissions reductions need to reflect Canada’s Paris Agreement goals to: decrease GHGs emission by 30% below Source: Google maps 2005 levels by 2030.
I NTRODUCTION TO A LBERTA O IL S ANDS • The oil sands deposits in Alberta 3rd largest proven oil reserves) • Located on traditional land of 24 Indigenous communities (~23,000 people) • In 2016, Alberta's oil sands proven reserves were 165.4 billion barrels • 20% recoverable open pit mining • 80% recoverable through in ‐ situ production Oil production in Alberta was 15.8 million • Source: taken by Ryan Abel, Fort McKay m 3 in July 2017, 8.2% higher compared to Sustainability Office July 2016 • Consists of 5.5% of the total minable 287 billion m 3
I NTRODUCTION TO A LBERTA O IL S ANDS • The Athabasca region in Alberta overlaps with traditional territories of 5 Indigenous communities Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo: Mikisew Cree First Nation, Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, Fort McKay First Nation , Fort McMurray First Nation, and Chipewyan Prairie Dene First Nation. • Risk of adverse cumulative effects on ecosystem of the boreal forest has significantly increase since 1981 Impacts socioeconomic welfare of • Source: https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/b6f2d99e-30f8- 4194-b7eb-76039e9be4d2/resource/063e27cc-b6d1-4dae- communities 8356-44e27304ef78/download/FSOilSands.pdf)
P ATHWAY 1: “ C AP THE EMISSIONS HAT ” Government of Alberta’s current effort to decrease emission in the oil sand sector. • Alberta (2015): Climate Leadership Plan and proposed a emissions caps emissions • trading system and a carbon tax for facilities that exceed the 100,000 CO2 tonnes/year. Oil Sands Emission Limit Act: legal obligation for the oil sand sector to limit • emissions to 100 Megatonnes (Mt) per year • Alberta the first jurisdiction in North America to regulate greenhouse gas for large industrial facilities Crude bitumen production in 2016: 2.5 million barrels per day (bl/d) or 70 Mt of GHG emissions Quick and dirty calculation : cap at ~3.57 million bl/d Source : Author’s own
P ATHWAY 1: “ C AP THE EMISSIONS HAT ” • Carbon tax of 30CAD/tonne year, increasing to 50CAD/tonne by 2022 • Cost of production has decreased to around 25CAD/barrel due to technological efficiencies • Tax increases costs by ~1 CAD/per barrel. • Tax to encourage CO 2 reduction in the bitumen extraction/ production process: e.g. increasing energy efficiency & renewable energy, & reduce methane flaring • Carbon capture and storage as a ‘game changer’. From 2018, Alberta is expected to capture 2.76 million tonnes of CO 2. /year Source : Author’s own
P ATHWAY 1: “ C AP THE EMISSIONS HAT ” Barriers to implementation: • Uncertain implementation of the 100 MT emissions cap: may delay implementation • Uncertain implementation of sector based performance standards • In 2016-17, bitumen revenue amounted to $1.48 billion, or 47.9 % of the non-renewable resource revenue • Change in government in the next election (2019) can create risks in overthrowing emission cap Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/rachel-notley-and-the-ndp-fresh-faces-or-ruin-of-alberta-1.3567192
P ATHWAY 1: “ C AP THE EMISSIONS HAT ” Potential negative consequences: • Oils Sands are a main economic driver in Alberta, risk of high unemployment • Emissions leakage: companies may move to other provinces with lower regulations • Consolidation of companies due to exit of international players- creation of powerful oligopolies • Opportunistic behaviour: increase oil production for short term gains Source : Author’s own to offset profit losses
P ATHWAY 2: “ P ACE YOUR D EVELOPMENT ” • Paced oil sands development and land use rights protection • Developed by the community of Fort McKay (study carried out by ALCES, 2013) • Bitumen production should peak at 3.5 million barrels per day (Mdpd) by 2040 • In 2012 the annual production was at 1.6 Mbpd • In 2016 production was at 2.5 Mbpd Source: Google maps
P ATHWAY 2: “ P ACE YOUR D EVELOPMENT ” Maintain traditional land uses and protecting • Celina Harpe, Elder in Fort McKay wildlife while enabling the oil sands to develop at a more thoughtful pace The Traditional Territory: land entitled to • the people of Fort McKay to exercise their treaty rights Right to hunt, trap, and gather resources on • their Traditional Territory Include indicators e.g.: Moose Habitat, Fisher • Habitat and Edible Berry Suitability, Native Fish Integrity Key strategy to increase protected areas: from • current 10.4% to ~39.2% Source: • 378,483- 1,420,579 ha of the area, ~ 84% of the http://www.wbea.org/tradit ional-knowledge area makes up Fort McKay’s Traditional Territory
P ATHWAY 2: “ P ACE YOUR D EVELOPMENT ” Strong collaboration between industry and the First Nations community needed • Industry collaboration to set best practices • • Protected land areas -> aligned with the 2012 Federal Recovery Strategy for Woodland Caribou – Boreal population • Provincial plans needed to protect 65% of caribou ranges by October 2017 • In Alberta, between 57% - 95% of each caribou range are disturbed by industrial activities Source: Billy Chan
P ATHWAY 2: “ P ACE YOUR D EVELOPMENT ” Barriers to implementation: • Segmented efforts between environmental agencies, communities, industry and government Lack of following up on monitoring • studies and translating studies to policy objectives Potential negative consequences: • May not meet the governments CO2 reductions target- May impact the economy • Currently modelling needs to be • carried out to assess these potential negative consequences Source: Author’s mom
C ONCLUSIONS N EXT STEPS : Proposed Consensus Building • Government of Alberta to Engagement Process consult with Fort McKay community and coordinate with existing organisations to 5. Reflection on les s ons 1. Pre-as s es s ment monitor and explore Core inclusion cumulative impacts of values*: Respect industry Relevance 2. Development Reciprocity Meaningful consultation : • 4. Monitoring & Responsibility learning free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) in United 3. Implementation Nations Declaration on the Censuses: trust built between the Rights of Indigenous peoples Indigenous right holders and other parties (UNDRIP). Source : Authors’ own
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