Türk Ekonomi Bankas ı A. Ş . Earnings Presentation September 30, 2009
Overview Makro Economic Environment and Banking Sector
2009 Macro Economic Developments BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE 1st quarter GDP growth: 14.3 % contraction USD/TRY (eop): 1.6682 benchmark interest rate : %14.1 In the first quarter of 2009 the contraction in the Turkish economy was very strong. Due to the decrease in demand and the falling oil and commodity prices in the world economy, the CPI inflation was 7.89 (y/y). The Central Bank suprised the markets with dramatic interest rate cuts, 450bps between December and March. Unemployment increased very rapidly and reached 15.5% in January. 2nd quarter GDP growth: 7.0 % contraction Although some green shoots emerged, it was another quarter of serious contraction. The unemployment rate slightly improved due to seasonality and the industrial production increased a few points giving the impression that Feb 09 was the peak. Inflation came down to an all time low indicating a undershooting of target levels. Thus, the central bank continued to ease the policy rates by another 400 bps. USD/TRY (eop): 1.5742 benchmark interest rate : %11.9 3rd quarter GDP growth: -4.1% (TEB estimate) We expect another quarter of contraction, although not as severe as the first half of the year. There are signs of improvement also visible in the form of competition in retail banking, the housing loans in particular. The central bank continued to ease the policy rates. USD/TRY (eop): 1.4770 benchmark interest rate : %8.67 3
Macro Economic Developments BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE GDP Growth (% yoy) Industrial Production vs GDP Growth (% y/y) 8.1 7.2 20 10 3.2 15 3.8 0.9 5 4.2 10 2.8 0 5 1.0 0 -7.0 -5 -6.5 -5 -10 Net Exports -10 Change in Stocks Private Investment Industrial Production (% y/y) -15 -15 Gov. Cons. and Inv. Industry GDP (% y/y) Consumption of Households -20 Difference GDP -14.3 -20 -25 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 -25 Jun-07 Jun-08 Year 2008 Jun-09 (f) Mar-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 The slow-down that started in mid-2008 Total industry -21.3 -23.8 -20.8 -18.5 -17.4 turned into a substantial contraction in the Intermediate goods -23.8 -24.4 -22.1 -20.0 -19.5 last quarter followed by a severe 14.3% and Durable consumer goods -25.7 -25.5 -27.9 -15.4 -4.0 then 7% contraction, the former unseen Undurable consumer goods -10.2 -15.4 -8.6 -4.1 -8.0 Energy -6.4 -11.0 -6.5 -6.9 -8.2 since the WW2. We expect an overall 5.5 % Capital goods -45.1 -44.5 -42.0 -41.7 -35.8 contraction in 2009 followed by 3 % growth in 2010. 4 Source: Turkstat; TurkeyDataMonitor; TEB.
Macro Economic Developments BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE Unemployment (%) Capacity Utilisation Rate (%) 90 20 85 Total (SA) 18 Non-farm (SA) 18.2 80 Total 16 Non-farm 75 14 14.9 70 12 Aug-09, 69.7 65 10 8 60 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-05 Apr-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Turkstat; TurkeyDataMonitor. Source: Turkstat; TEB. Unemployment rate continued its steep rise in 2009 placing Turkey in the 4th highest rank in the world. Although there is some improvement in capacity utilisation rate, the former carries a seasonality effect and the latter is partly due to a number of government incentives introduced in 2009. 5
Macro Economic Developments BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE Benchmark Bond Yield vs. CBT Rates CPI Inflation and Core Inflation (% y/y) (Comp. Ann. %) 25.0 22.5 14 12 20.0 10 17.5 8 15.0 Aug-09, 5.3 6 12.5 4 Benchmark Rate 3.8 CPI 2.7 CBT o/n H-Index 2 10.0 I-Index 0 7.5 Oct-07 Oct-08 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Source: CBT, ISE Source: Turkstat. Continuing decline in core inflation has led the CB to lower its policy rates further down which resulted in a very dramatic rate cut of 10 points since Nov 2008. The CB is indicating some more cuts in 2009 and no increase in 2010 implying its firm belief in the lack of inflationary pressures in the economy. We are expecting 150 bps increase in 2010. 6
Developments In Banking Sector BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE Loan Growth 14.0% 11.2% 10.3% 7.8% 7.7% 6.9% 6.5% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% -0.3% Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 -4.0% -8.3% -9.1% Deposit Growth Sector TEB 24.2% 8.0% 7.9% 8.0% 5.4% -2.9% 4.1% 3.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 -14.0% 7 Source: BRSA, TEB Bank-Only BRSA Financials
2009 3Q TEB’s Performance – Financial Results
TEB Highligts of the 3 nd Quarter BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE � Growth in loans and deposits, both way above sector averages, � Asset quality below sector averages, � Slight contraction in the interest margin almost totally compensated by the volume growth, � Excess liquidity transferred to higher interest earning assets, � Continuing profitability from management of securities portfolio, � Positive results from cost cutting projects, � Increasing share of fees and commission income due to investments in retail business, � Very strong CAR to support growth in the following quarters, 9
TEB Consolidated Balance Sheet BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE Reviewed Audited Reviewed Audited 9/30/2009 12/31/2008 9/30/2009 12/31/2008 TL Million Share Change Share Change Assets Liabilities Cash & banks 2,368 4,025 Deposits 9,728 10,496 15% -41% 63% -7% M.sec + repos 2,451 2,071 Repos 323 202 16% 18% 2% 60% Loans + Trade rec. 9,912 10,269 Funds Borrowed 2,154 3,470 64% -3% 14% -38% Other Assets 576 582 Other Liab. 1,015 926 4% -1% 7% 10% Total Liabilities 13,220 15,094 Non- IE Assets 180 190 1% -5% 85% -12% Total Assets 15,487 17,137 100% -10% Subordinated Loans 490 495 3% -1% Sh. Equity Capital & Res. 1,575 1,361 10% 16% Income 203 187 1% n.m. Total Sh. Equity 1,777 1,548 11% 15% Total Liab + Equity 15,487 17,137 100% -10% 10
TEB Consolidated Income Statement BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE Reviewed Reviewed 30/09/09 30/09/08 TL Million Change Net Interest Income 676.0 650.2 4% Marketable Securities Revaluation Differences -12.0 -13.1 Adjusted Net Interest Income 664.0 637.0 4% FX Gains / (Losses) 130.6 21.6 Derivatives Trading -150.7 -29.5 Securities Trading Income 63.4 -22.2 Net Fees & Commissions Income 209.0 170.4 23% Other Operating Income 23.6 75.5 -69% Net Banking Income 939.9 852.8 10% Loan Loss Provisions -135.1 -79.3 70% Net Operating Income 804.8 773.4 4% Operating Expenses -552.7 -565.2 -2% Provision for Taxes on Income -49.6 -41.6 19% Net Income / (Loss) 202.5 166.6 22% 11
TEB Quarterly Income Statement BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE m TL m TL Q2-Q1 m TL Q2-Q3 US$ Million Q1 Q2 Change Q3 Change Net Interest Income 223.6 221.8 230.6 0.8% 3.1% Marketable Securities Revaluation Differences -0.4 -1.8 -9.8 -77.3% 2327.2% Adjusted Net Interest Income 220.0 223.2 220.8 1.5% -1.1% 36.9 FX Gains / (Losses) 25.8 67.9 -61.9% 42.9% Derivatives Trading -63.9 -32.2 -54.6 -49.6% 69.3% Securities Trading Income 21.2 26.1 16.2 -18.9% -23.5% Net Fees & Commissions Income 73.2 67.4 68.4 8.5% -6.5% Other Operating Income 7.8 8.7 7.0 -11.1% -9.7% Net Banking Income 326.2 318.9 294.7 -2.2% -7.6% Loan Loss Provisions -46.2 -44.9 -44.1 2.9% -4.5% Net Operating Income 281.3 272.8 250.7 -3.0% -8.1% Operating Expenses -187.5 -186.1 -179.1 0.8% -4.4% Provision for Taxes on Income -16.3 -16.9 -16.4 -3.0% 0.2% Net Income / (Loss) 78.4 69.0 55.1 -12.0% -20.1% 12
Improved NIM and Cost/Income Ratio BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE Net Interest Margin Cost/Income Ratio 6.79% 6.54% 68.30% 6.32% 6.23% 66.90% 6.60% 66.30% 6.31% 65.70% 6.03% 6.39% 6.38% 6.35% 5.82% 5.27% 58.80% 57.90% 57.00% 2008/1Q 2008/2Q 2008/3Q 2008/4Q 2009/1Q 2009/2Q 2009/3Q 2008/1Q 2008/2Q 2008/3Q 2008/4Q 2009/1Q 2009/2Q 2009/3Q Net Interest Margin (cumulative) Net Interest Margin (quarterly) Net Interest Margin : (Net interest income+Net FX gains/losses+Derivative Cost/Income : Operating Expenses / Net Banking Income (Cumulative & Gains)/ (Liquid Assets+Marketable Securities+Credits) (Bank-only) consolidated) Source: TEB BRSA Bank-only and Consolidated Financials 13
Liquidity BNP PARIBAS JOINT VENTURE Liquidity Ratio Cost of Risk Cost of Risk (quarterly) 39.10% 38.35% 37.30% 35.53% 34.48% 29.63% 2,42% 4190 1,98% 4025 3792 3839 23.34% 3197 3104 1,95% 1,91% 2368 1,35% 2008/3Q 2008/4Q 2009/1Q 2009/2Q 2009/3Q 2008/1Q 2008/1H 2008/3Q 2008/4Q 2009/1Q 2009/1H 2009/3Q Cost of Risk (quarterly) Liquid Assets Liquid Assets/Deposits Cost of Risk : loan loss provisions/ average loans for the period 14 Source: BRSA, TEB BRSA Consolidated Financials
Recommend
More recommend
