T HI NKI NG A BOUT C ONSERVATI ON P ARADI GMS . D EVASTATION IN THE D - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

N EW P ARADI GM FOR C ONSERVATI ON F ARM F OU ON F OR OUNDATI ON ORUM Jonathan Coppess Gard rdner r Ag Policy Pro rogra ram November 1, 2017

T HI NKI NG A BOUT C ONSERVATI ON P ARADI GMS . D EVASTATION IN THE D UST B OWL E RA • Homesteading and WWI expansion for wheat in the Plains • Depression + Dust = Conservation + Acreage Reduction + Price Support E ROSION IN THE T ARGET P RICE E RA • Chasing high prices and exports, from fencerow-to-fencerow • Crisis + Erosion = target prices + CRP + compliance N UTRIENT L OSS IN THE RFS E RA • Yields (GE) + Acres (RFS & high prices) = nutrient loss • Working lands challenges on a massive scale; EQIP , CSP , RCPP …? w w w .farm doc.illinois.edu

B ASELI NE C HALLENGES FOR F ARM B I LL CBO June 2017 Baseline  Budget rules and $9,000 CBO baseline creates ‘zero-sum’ $8,000 policy effort. $7,000  Adding funds to $6,000 one title must $5,000 come out of others. $4,000 $3,000  Expanding CRP acres would $2,000 require offsets, $1,000 possibly working lands. $0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 CRP CSP EQIP Crop Insurance Conservation Total Title 1 w w w .farm doc.illinois.edu

C ONSERVATI ON AND F ARM (R I SK ) P ERSPECTI VES  Lower crop prices + costs Corn: Per-Acre Revenue, Cost and Returns (Central IL) slow to adjust = farm income squeeze. $1,000.00 $500.00  Conservation risks being a “nice to have” item when $0.00 times are good, abandoned in the squeeze. -$500.00  Example: cover crops at $25 -$1,000.00 to $30 per acre. Crop Rev Gov. Pmt Insurance Direct Costs  Nutrient loss requires Power Costs Overhead Costs Land Costs Farmer Return conservation that is relevant to farming, risk & finances. w w w .farm doc.illinois.edu

T HI NKI NG ABOUT A N EW P ARADI GM  Farming’s twin Corn Prices and Yields risks. $8.00 200 180 $7.00 160  Conservation $6.00 140 and relevance. Bushels per acre $5.00 $ per bushel 120 $4.00 100  I n a baseline- 80 $3.00 challenged 60 $2.00 (zero-sum) 40 $1.00 effort. 20 $0.00 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Yield Projected Harvest 5yr OMA-MYA Reference Loan w w w .farm doc.illinois.edu

THANK YOU! Jonathan Coppess Gard rdner r Agri ricult ure re Policy Pro rogra ram University of I llinois jwcoppes@illinois.edu w w w .farm doc.illinois.edu