See Notes Page INCOSE Mission Statement: “ Our mission is to share, promote and advance the best of systems engineering from across the globe for the benefit of humanity and the planet. ” The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering INCOSE_IL 2013 Applying Complex Systems Engineering in Balancing Our Earth's Population and Natural Resources B. E. White, Ph.D. System of Systems Session 1.3 – Complex Systems Track #1 4 March 2013 – INCOSE IL – Daniel Hotel – Herzlia, Israel The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 1 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
Would Anyone Like to Comment? How much do you care about quality of life 500 years from now? How many people might there be then? What are the chances that Earth’s resources will be sustained that long? How would you characterize quality of life then? What about applying “complex” systems engineering to mitigate potential consequences of “overshoot”? What does that mean? How much might the overshoot likelihood be reduced? T o what extent is human life sanctified compared to other living entities? How much should we do to keep everyone alive? How much should those not yet conceived be desired, welcomed and nurtured? What if the world’s population growth continues unabated? What might we do to motivate lower fertility rates in coming generations? Let’s at least have more dialogues to elicit some pros and cons concerning answers to these questions. The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 2 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
My Motivation This is a highly controversial subject, and one needs humility. It takes courage to even bring it up, particularly in professional forums. After a long career I no longer answer to an employer but could be ostracized or ignored by others. I believe in reducing population growth as a worthwhile cause, and want to stimulate more attention and support to the issue. More eloquent and serious advocates than me have failed in this. (Connor 2006), (Daly 1996) , (Ehrlich 1968, 1990, 1994), (Friedman 2008, 2011), (Meadows et al. 1972, 2004), (Senge et al. 2008) I’d be satisfied if systems engineers question and resist suggestions that would exacerbate the sustainment problem. I think we should all try to enlighten and advise decision-makers to only pursue those courses which are more likely to benefit the long- term viability and quality of life of the human race. My frustration: Why would anyone want more people other than for selfish reasons, short-term benefits, and profit motives!? The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 3 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
The Paper Purpose Call attention to danger of overpopulation already expressed by many learned and respected researchers Bemoan the fact that most dismiss the warnings, ignore the long term, and few care to take any corrective action Apply complex systems engineering principles in suggesting actions Means Interchange among fictitious characters expressing their opinions Attempt to induce shock at how many additional people might result if a group of people devastated by “disaster” instead survived for 20 generations, even at a relative low birth rate of 1.3, say Show how birth rates of just 1.0 or lower would solve the problem and help ensure maintaining or improving quality of life Way forward Suggestions to incentivize future generations to have fewer children The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 4 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
Background on Complex Systems (1 of 2) Some Complex System Behaviors A. Surprising Emergence B. Evolves on Its Own as a Whole C. Acts Robustly I will say more about all these behaviors in my tutorials D. Thrives on Diversity tomorrow: Principles of Complex Systems Engineering. E. Many Factors at Play F. Stimulates Different Perspectives G. Ever Changing H. Informs the Observer I. Performs Openly J. Internal and External Relationships are Key K. Self-Organized L. Sensitive to Small Effects M. Exhibits Tight and Loose Couplings The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 5/22/2014 5 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
Background on Complex Systems (2 of 2) Some Complex Systems Engineering Principles 1. Bring Humility I will say more about all these principles in my tutorials 2. Follow Holism tomorrow: Principles of Complex Systems Engineering. 3. Achieve Balance 4. Utilize Trans-Disciplines 5. Embrace POET* ________ * Political, Operational, Economic, and Technical 6. Nurture Discussions 7. Pursue Opportunities 8. Formulate Heuristics 9. Foster Trust 10. Create Interactive Environment 11. Stimulate Self-Organization 12. Seek Simple Elements 13. Enforce Layered Architecture The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 5/22/2014 6 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
The Characters Character Name Character Type Role in Dialogue Earth Concerned by human behavior that ignores planet's Biggest stakeholder in sustainability long-term interests Complex Systems Engineer Focused on advice for systems engineers concerning Emphasizes complex systems behaviors and complex what might be more effective systems engineering principles Systems Thinker Knowledgeable about complex systems, smart, and Provider of balanced and objective viewpoints and ideas dispassionate for research Facilitator Concerned with fundamental issues, abstract ideas, Leader in posing sustainability concerns and significant progress toward solving human made problems Panel of Judges Collective voices of intelligence and morality Responding spirits (supreme beings, departed parents, overseeing all thoughts and acts spouse, and closest friends) to facilitator Liberal Supporter Concerned with human welfare and favoring Voice of compassion government action Conservative Advocate Believes in individual freedom, right to life, and Naysayer limited government Optimist in solving “world hunger” Agriculturalist Interested in growing food production worldwide through petroleum-based fertilizers provided by fossil fuels This characterization (and ensuing dialogue in the paper) is used to elicit a (more) balanced set of opinions. The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 7 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
Some Facts [In 1900] the entire world population was less than 2 billion people. … in 2012, [it]… exceeded 7 billions. The world’s population [was] growing by 200,000 people a day!, but [both] death and birth rates have declined over the past several decades. (World Bank) (Population 2012) China is first in population with 1,347 billion people. India is second with 1,241 billion, and the U.S. is third with only 312 million people (Population 2012) The 2012 estimated population growth rates of China, India, and the U.S. are 0.481%, 1.31%, and 0.899%, respectively; the world’s is 1.10 % (Factbook1 2012) The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 8 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
Overpopulation Pressures Keep Every Human Life Sacred. Save Lives No Matter What the Cost. Provide Food and Water for All Starving People in Africa. Ignore Greater Water Shortages. Lament Loss of Life in Natural (and Other) Disasters. See next chart Hype Impossible Rescue Attempts. Pay More for Doctors’ Futile Test and Treatment Recommendations. Pursue Voluntary Charitable Initiatives. The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 9 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
Suppose 10,000 People Did Not Die? Years Resulting Population Increases Birth Rate: 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.0 Death Rate: 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 25 13,500 18,000 18,900 19,800 20,700 18,400 22,500 20,000 27,000 50 14,350 25,100 27,790 30,660 33,710 27,720 40,350 33,400 60,100 75 13,965 31,390 36,759 42,882 49,813 38,556 66,315 52,220 125,490 100 13,044 36,951 45,896 56,819 70,018 51,619 104,534 79,426 255,541 125 4,637 34,566 48,000 65,598 88,338 62,661 153,915 114,296 507,697 150 572 32,319 50,454 76,271 112,293 77,385 228,126 166,969 1,012,147 200 0 28,188 56,495 104,835 184,317 122,323 506,841 365,467 4,039,335 250 0 24,461 64,232 146,413 306,506 199,161 1,134,462 813,065 16,148,706 300 0 21,062 73,938 206,649 513,386 329,588 2,547,022 1,820,785 64,586,687 400 0 15,012 100,739 419,249 1,454,960 923,736 12,877,732 9,191,295 1,033,348,683 500 0 9,667 140,807 861,065 4,145,318 2,621,578 65,178,460 46,505,714 16,533,543,470 Note: Here population growth eventually drops to 0 with birth rates of 1.0 or lower The 7 th International Conference for Systems Engineering 10 5/22/2014 of the Israeli Society for Systems Engineering, 4-5 March 2013
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