System and evolution System and evolution analysis of environment analysis of environment and climate forming and climate forming processes in Siberia processes in Siberia V. .I I . . Shishlov Shishlov, , Yu Yu. .I I . . Preis Preis, , V V. .A A. . Krutikov Krutikov V Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RA S
Cycles organization of a climate formation processes • Mode of exchanges inside of system between layers (sites) of ocean (turbulent exchanges, wave exchanges, a storm) • I nteroceanic transfer of energy mass (waters circulation, streams) • The global conveyor (formation of deep waters in the field of deep convektion in Northern Atlantic and outflow of cold waters) • Mode of ocean and atmosphere interaction with transformation of water energy to energy of air mass movement (a typhoon, etc.)
The spatial spatial organization organization of of the the The climate system system climate
Global factors and mechanisms of Global factors and mechanisms of climatic changes climatic changes - An increase atmospheric humidity under influence of tidal forces An increase atmospheric humidity under influence of tidal forces. . - - The expansion of a zone of a high pressure, aggravation of high The expansion of a zone of a high pressure, aggravation of high- -altitude zone altitude zone - circulation and cyclogenesis circulation and cyclogenesis. . - - The mechanism of change of atmospheric circulation under influe The mechanism of change of atmospheric circulation under influence of nce of external forces, redistributions of the moment of a pulse between space n space external forces, redistributions of the moment of a pulse betwee bodies during orbital movements in a gravitation field of CGM. bodies during orbital movements in a gravitation field of CGM. - The planetary mechanism of redistribution of energy and directio The planetary mechanism of redistribution of energy and direction of n of - movement of air weights at interactions AAC and the connected movement of air weights at interactions AAC and the connected transformations thermal and baric fields. transformations thermal and baric fields. A mechanism of dynamic changes of a multiregime multiregime process of the weather process of the weather A mechanism of dynamic changes of a n n formation based on the reorganization of energy conversion processes in sses in formation based on the reorganization of energy conversion proce the surface ECS at change of a media properties and conditionally y the surface ECS at change of a media properties and conditionall reversible transformation of relations between elements. reversible transformation of relations between elements. A mechanism of change of energy conversion and energy- -mass transfer mass transfer A mechanism of change of energy conversion and energy n n cycles at transformations of relations in the ocean- -cryosphere cryosphere- -atmosphere atmosphere- - cycles at transformations of relations in the ocean land system. land system. Relations between Atmospheric Action Centers (AAC) have signific Relations between Atmospheric Action Centers (AAC) have significant ant influence on energy- -mass transfer through the circulation mechanism. mass transfer through the circulation mechanism. influence on energy
Connection of processes and Connection of processes and intersystem relations intersystem relations
The o organization rganization of of education education The habitat and and climate climate cycles cycles habitat
Factors of warming: Factors of warming: carry ВМ ВМ with Global factors: : Intensive Intensive zone zone carry with the the Global factors n n high maintenance maintenance water water pair pair, , hotbed gases hotbed gases, , high strengthening trengthening of of cyclogenesis cyclogenesis ( ( c cyclones yclones from from s northwest sector sector of of Atlantic Atlantic, c , cyclones yclones from from northwest Caspian sea sea, , Cyclones Cyclones from from Aral Aral sea sea) ) and and g growth rowth Caspian of cloudy cloudy formations formations during during the the cold cold period period of of of year. . year Regional factors: : change change the the surface surface albedo albedo Regional factors n n ( pollution pollution of of snow snow cover cover), ), evaporation evaporation with with ( wetted surfaces surfaces in in the the oil oil area area and and residential residential wetted zones, , h heat eat i island sland ( ( tehnosfera tehnosfera), ), changing changing the the zones timing of of hydrological hydrological ice ice phenomena phenomena on on rivers rivers, , timing Influence of of river river valleys valleys ( ( Tobol Tobol, , Irtysh Irtysh, , Ob Ob), ), Influence water basins basins ( ( hydrological and thermal hydrological and thermal power power water station) ) and and bogs bogs on on increase increase in in warming warming. . station
Estimation of a regional climate changes on the basis Estimation of a regional climate changes on the basis of the changes analysis of annual ensemble conditions of the changes analysis of annual ensemble conditions in phase space of estimated characteristics in phase space of estimated characteristics General feature for all General feature for all n n regions - - displacement displacement regions of conditions of conditions ensemble of last ensemble of last stages since 1978. stages since 1978. Feature of Tobolsk Tobolsk, , Feature of n n Khanty- - Mansiysk Mansiysk, , Khanty Kolpashevo – – area area Kolpashevo expansion of expansion of conditions ensemble. conditions ensemble.
Estimation of characteristics and limits of temperature of characteristics and limits of temperature Estimation variability for Tobolsk Tobolsk variability for
Estimation of variability limits of average annual Estimation of variability limits of average annual temperature for Siberia regions temperature for Siberia regions
Analysis of of changes changes in in regional regional Analysis climate trends trends climate Changes trajectories and areas of the forest-climate states ensembles zone of Siberia
Oscillation of regional climates of Siberia Oscillation of regional climates of Siberia single directed changes were in all regions. Arrows show directed changes. CS of all regions made a cycle of transition and return to the initial state (1963-1966 yrs). The profile ( Π ) of space distribution of estimation functions was conserved during all transitions. Rate of estimation characteristic change was 56 % per year in Tomsk, 68% in Hanty-Mansiysk. Amplitude of oscillation was 154% . A single cycle of climatic mesoscale Figure 7. Mapping of an processes in the single CS of West ensemble of CS states Siberia.
Estimation of regional climatic changes tendencies in Estimation of regional climatic changes tendencies in Western Siberia Western Siberia 20 Tw, o C Ts, o C з з з з з з з з з з з од од 10 0 г г г г г г г -10 к к рк к к рк рк рк 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 emble of Omsk climate. ( Т Т s Identification results of temperature changes for conditions ens Identification results of temperature changes for conditions ensemble of Omsk climate. ( s - - average average IX months. Т Т w temperature for the V temperature for the V- - IX months. w - - average temperature for the X average temperature for the X- - IV months) IV months) Variability of conditions has increased; Variability of conditions has increased; n n ( К К ) has decreased at preservation of sharply continental Continentality Continentality ( ) has decreased at preservation of sharply continental n n РК ) З ) in the summer; ( РК with frosty winter and droughty ( З conditions ( ) with frosty winter and droughty ( ) in the summer; conditions The tendency of growth of number of warm conditions of the cold The tendency of growth of number of warm conditions of the cold period of period of n n year with plentiful deposits (cyclogenesis year with plentiful deposits ( cyclogenesis, advection of heat) is established; , advection of heat) is established; ( Г Г ) annual conditions and intensive hydrological cycle The number of humid ( ) annual conditions and intensive hydrological cycle The number of humid n n has increased. has increased.
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