Sustainability, Public Health and Health inequalities! - and current - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sustainability, Public Health and Health inequalities! - and current policy imperatives Gary McFarlane Director CIEH N. Ireland

Sustainable principles

The Main Determinants of Health

150+ Years of public health

Sustainable systems – the relationships The Bioshere Human Society The Economy Source: Forum for the Future

The times they are a changin…..(???) Bob Dylan

Consumption! Number of planets needed to sustain countries at current consumption levels US 5.3 UK 3.1 France 3 Germany 2.5 Russia 2.4 Brazil 1.2 China 0.8 India 0.4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: New Economics Foundation, April 2006

The extent to which we depend on others! Source: New Economics Foundation, April 2006

Global population 1800 - 1 billion 1930 - 2 billion 1960 - 3 billion 1999 - 6 billion 2050 - 9-27 billion Population is currently increasing by 7 million per month

The environmental consequence of our unsustainable lifestyles – climate change! This generations broad street pump? The greatest public health threat of our time?

Environmental Impacts?

Pollution – types and causes Air • combustion • noise • emissions • discharges Water • deposition • leaching • abstraction Land • spillage • Illegal dumping • Old industrial sites/mines/quarries/oil and gas

Resource Depletion • RENEWABLE can be replaced by natural processes at a rate comparable to, or faster than, the rate of consumption • NON RENEWABLE cannot be produced, re-grown, regenerated, or reused on a scale to sustain the rate of consumption

Biodiversity – a question of balance • the number and variety of species in an area • ecosystem – the interrelationship between species and their environment

Climate change • ‘ greenhouse effect ’ – a natural phenomenon • greenhouse gases (GHGs) – trap heat and warm atmosphere

Carbon Dioxide in the 360 340 atmosphere has risen Carbon Dioxide 320 C0 2 (ppm) by over 30% due to 300 280 human activities 260 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 20

Degree by degree (The “incident” pit!) 2 degrees 3 degrees 4,5,6 degrees

Degree by degree! 1 – 2 degrees • Significant biodiversity impacts • Heatwaves in europe • Major impacts on food production • Water Conclusion – survivable, but with significant impacts

3 Degrees • Drought and famine in the tropics and subtropics. Conflict (food wars!) • Massive population shifts • Australia on fire! • Storm surges in Europe BUT MOST CATASTROPHIC OF ALL – the complete obliteration of the Amazon

4 Degrees • Continuing sea level rise forces millions more people onto the move. • Collapse of china’s food system • Australia – virtually unihabitable with nowhere left that will support agriculture • UK – summer temps of 45 degrees SIBERIAN ROULETTE

5 Degrees • No ice sheets; no rainforests; and much of coastal areas gone – an unrecognisable planet! • All out War (for habitable land) • The return of the hunter gatherer • A “cull” of the human race – billions of deaths

6 Degrees • Methane explosions and subsequent fireballs from the ocean floor • Hydrogen sulphide poisoning • Mass extinction • The obliteration of Homo sapiens ?

Choosing our future Degree Change Action needed CO 2 Target 1 degree Avoidance probably not 350 ppm (todays level possible around 384 ppm) 2 degrees Peak global 400 ppm emissions by 2015 3 degrees Peak global emissions 450 ppm by 2030 4 degrees Peak global emissions 550 ppm by 2050 5 degrees Allow constantly rising 650 ppm emissions 6 degrees Allow very high 800 ppm emissions

Climate change – a health warning!? PREDICTED INCREASES IN: • cold related deaths. (20,000 per yr) • Heat related summer deaths (2800 per yr) • Food poisoning (10000 per yr) • Skin cancer (5000 cases per year) • cataracts (2000 per year) • Increase in insect and water borne diseases. • Increased risk from disasters (gales; coastal flooding)

It looks like war and it is! – although they are not soldiers but rather health workers fumigating the streets of Kolkotta against the number one enemy, the malaria mosquito. Increasing temperatures speed up parasite development in the mosquito increasing the chance of transmission FACT: Blue tongue disease, previously unheard of in the British Isles, is now caused by ticks previously unrecorded there ……what will countries inherit in the future due to vector changes?

Current knowledge suggests that climatic changes since the 1970s may already be causing over 150,000 deaths annually. World Health Organisation

In 2003 there was a summer heat wave in Europe – on average the temperature was 2.3 degrees C above the “norm.” In Paris, in August 2003, over 10,000 people, most of them elderly or marginalised, died! A “2 degree world” is highly likely – even if we manage to achieve an 80 -90% reduction in Carbon emissions by 2050. SO - If we don’t it will be more than 2 degrees (3? 4?.....6 if we keep on as we are) The consequences? UNTHINKABLE

Low-lying deltas represent large populations exposed to flood risk Demographics • More older people (living younger lives!) 2021 - 12 million over 65 • Fewer under 25s • Immigration (and refugees) Indicative population potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050. Extreme > 1 million people displaced High 1 million to 50,000 people displaced Medium 50,000 to 5,000 people displaced

Health inequalities and climate change “ Among influences which largely affect the national statistics of disease and death, few are greater than poverty. ” John Simon, Medical Officer of Health, 1897 Deprivation increases vunerability to climate change and climate change increases deprivation Differential Social Impacts of Climate Change in UK: SNIFFER: January 2009 “ The wide and increasing social differential in premature illness and death should be a matter of serious public concern. Today the question is not whether the facts of these differentials are valid but rather who cares and what can be done about them ” . Sir Donald Acheson, Chief Medical Officer 1983-91

Climate change affects everyone. But not equally! Fatalities due to weather related events 1991 - 2001 1298 USA 362 0 Extreme temp Ireland 3 Floods 14 UK 10 Venezuala 30068 690 Pakistan 4515 4230 India 14912 159 China 16864 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Number of deaths In this sense it is yet another perverse, socially unjust, consequence of an excessive lifestyle visited on those who have the least by those who have the most

OUR FOOD SYSTEM! – a case study in unsustainability, ill health, and inequity!

Lifestyle and choice I ’ ll ask the babysitter to get a take-away for the Kids! • Working mothers • “ Dashboard dining ” • Global foodbaskets

The looming food crisis – security of supply and price Global food demand will double between now and 2050 as world population reaches 9.2 billion World Economic Forum 2010 The number of farmers within the UK is decreasing dramatically and the UK is less self sufficient in food than ever before BBC Farm Matters 2010

Examples of ecologically wasteful trade - madness? or good economics? Product Imports Exports (tonnes) (tonnes) Gingerbread 465 460 Fresh boneless chicken 44,000 51,000 Chocolate covered waffles 17,200 17,600 Milk and cream 10,200 9,900 Potatoes 1500 1500 Source: uktradeinfo 2005

Economics The Bioshere Anyone who believes Human Society exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a The Economy madman or an economist. Kenneth Boulding, economist Source: Forum for the Future

“Every Society clings to a myth by which it lives; ours is the myth of economic progress.” Chasing Progress, New Economics Foundation 10.7 million children do not live to see their fifth birthday. Many die for want of a simple anti mosquito bed net One fifth of humanity live in countries where many people think nothing of spending $2 a day on a capuccino. More than 1 billion people survive in abject poverty on less than $1 a day. The highest level of dissatisfaction (contentment and wellbeing) and emotional distress are in the richest countries in the world like the US and UK

IPCC climate change report: averting catastrophe is eminently affordable Landmark UN analysis concludes global roll-out of clean energy would shave only a tiny fraction off economic growth The Guardian, Sunday 13 April 2014 11.19 BST

The current policy course!?

The imperatives! • we need to reduce the amount of resources we consume and the pollutants and greenhouse gases we emit – at the same time and combined with rebuilding a new economy. • we need to adapt - our buildings; our environment; our agricultural systems; our communities to be better prepared for change – it is coming!!