Surviving in a changing world: maximising the resilience of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Surviving in a changing world: maximising the resilience of biodiversity Prof Steve Williams Stephen.williams@jcu.edu.au www.jcu.edu.au/ctbcc

Queensland Science & Research Priorities Protecting our biodiversity • Understanding cumulative impacts • Biodiversity conservation • Optimal resource allocation • Dealing with climatic change Building Resilience …particularly in tropical environments

How can we use science to make more informed decisions about natural resource management? … by understanding the processes that shape patterns of biodiversity and the factors that promote species and ecosystem resilience

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5 th Assessment Report 2013 “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” ‐ unprecedented over millennia. ‐ The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, ‐ the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, ‐ sea level has risen, and the ‐ concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. “

Extreme weather will become more common Heat waves; Fires; Droughts; Floods

What is Resilience?

Resilience: a pragmatic definition ‐ factors that influence the ability of species and ecosystems to survive in a changing and more variable environment Species characteristics • Reproductive characteristics • Movement potential • Physiological tolerances • Ecological flexibility / specialisation Landscape (spatial context) • Habitat area • Habitat quality • Connectivity • Refugia • Buffering of extremes – heat waves, drought, floods, cyclones

Most biologically rich area in Australia with many unique species: RANKED SECOND - globally most important World Heritage Area Mike Trenerry ~ 10,000 sq km rainforest

How vulnerable is this amazing biodiversity?

Herbert River Ringtail Possum (Pseudochirulus herbertensis) Herbert River Ringtail Possum ( Pseudochirops herbertensis ) 5.0 25 % 4.0 20 % 3.0 15 % 2.0 10 % 1.0 5 % Temp. Seasonality

Predicted changes in the Conservation Status of Vertebrates (endemics) of the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area Ensemble 18 GCMs, 200+ spp, 10 years time step~1,000,000 SDMs estimating change in population size Increasing No change 88% of the Vulnerable endemic We We vertebrate species are Endangered threatened Crit. End. / Extinct

Increased fragmentation of species distributions • Landscape connectivity now and into the future becomes even more critical

Using a greater understanding of resilience to inform prioritisation of resources for species and places for better policy and conservation management

Species Resilience Biological traits of species associated with recovering from an impact and reducing extinction proneness such as: • fecundity • longevity • dispersal ability specialisation • • behaviour Provides a more realistic and balanced assessment of vulnerability

TAXA SPECIES Common_name Rank +19 FROG Taudactylus rheophilus Northern Tinkerfrog 1 +9 BIRD Prionodura newtoniana Golden Bowerbird 2 +17 BIRD Sericornis keri Atherton Scrubwren 3 - FROG Cophixalus aenigma Tapping Nursery-Frog 4 +9 FROG Cophixalus exiguus Bloomfield Nursery-Frog 5 -5 FROG Cophixalus hosmeri Pipping Nursery-Frog 6 -1 FROG Cophixalus neglectus Tangerine Nursery-Frog 7 +12 MAMM Dasyurus maculatus Spotted-tailed Quoll 8 -5 FROG Mixophyes carbinensis . 9 +2 BIRD Acanthiza katherina Mountain Thornbill 10 +18 BIRD Colluricincla boweri Bowers Shrike-Thrush 11 +17 BIRD Oreoscopus gutturalis Fernwren 12 +3 FROG Cophixalus monticola Mountain Top Nursery-Frog 13 -14 FROG Cophixalus concinnus Beautiful Nursery-Frog 14 -13 REPT Techmarscincus jigurru Bartle Frere Skink 15

Species Resilience So by combining sophisticated spatial analyses and the biological traits of species we have a more robust assessment of the relative vulnerability of each species,but… How do we validate or test our revised estimates of resilience?? ‐ Use past climatic change as a test

Species Resilience • Confirms our measures of resilience successfully predict extinction proneness • Gives us greater confidence in the future predictions • Allows more confident prioritisation of species that are vulnerable (or not)

Are we already seeing changes in the vertebrates of the Wet Tropics rainforests?

Observed changes in bird population size over the last 15 years No Change Declined

Observed changes in population size of Bridled Honeyeater 30% Decline in Bridled Honeyeater total population size across the region

Observed changes in population size of birds Using long ‐ term monitoring data we show significant changes in the distributions of 28 of 56 bird species for which data were sufficient. Integrating abundance data from monitoring program with available habitat area in elevational bands, we highlight the synergistic effects of up ‐ slope shift and declining habitat area in driving rapid population declines in >20 species of birds, 6 of which are endemic to the region .

Mammals are also declining and moving higher… Southern Population ‐ Lemuroid Ringtail Possum ( Hemibelideus lemuroides ) 600 m 800 m 1000 m

Mammals are also declining and moving higher… Herbert River Ringtail Possum ( Pseudochirulus herbertensis ) 600 m 800 m 1000 m

Increasing severity of heat waves The number of consecutive days where daily maximums were above the 90 th percentile (~28 º C)

Observed changes • Many upland species, especially regional endemics, have already declined in abundance and moved higher up the mountains • Species disappearing at lower edge of range • Some lowland species have expanded into higher elevations • Many more species show trend but not statistically significant yet

Landscape Resilience Some practical examples of things that can help…..

QLD Landscape Resilience Program Prioritisation of locations for acquisition into the protected area estate in Queensland based on landscape and climatic resilience • Climatic stability • Remnant vegetation • Landscape connectivity • Rare habitats

Identified aggregations of climate resilient properties that support existing reserves

Current status of the Landscape Resilience Program based on our collaborative work is:  identified 39 highest resilience properties;  5 of the 39 properties have been purchased or are in in advanced stages of purchase for addition to the Protected Area Estate. Negotiations are continuing relative to another 3.  1 nature refuge has been finalised of the remaining 31 properties, with active negotiations at various stages for nature refuges on 13 of the remaining 30 properties. If all negotiations are successful, protected areas will cover 22 of the 39 identified properties (54%).

In the Wet Tropics, analysis of landscape resilience resulted in a new protected area Mt Baldy protected!

Analysis of landscape resilience and prioritisation of areas to give the best biodiversity outcomes for rehabilitation resulted in an award winning WTMA / community reforestation project funded by Caring for Country program

Conclusions • The biodiversity of the Wet Tropics is in trouble!!!! • There are predictable, observable and significant declines in ~50 species that would qualify them for a “Threatened” status under EPBC / IUCN criteria • Future vulnerability of the biodiversity of the region is HIGH, particularly within the regionally ‐ endemic species that are so significant to the outstanding universal value of the region • Long ‐ term biodiversity monitoring and research can inform effective strategies to protect our natural heritage • Assessment of species and landscape resilience is an important tool in designing more efficient and effective policy and management strategies

Thanks  Questions?

Research program Understanding biodiversity Understanding resilience Continued monitoring Vulnerability traits • • • Predicting biodiversity change • Refuges / corridors • Species inventories • Adaptive potential of • Species (re)discovery biodiversity assets • Monitoring potential drivers • Novel dimensions • Extreme events • Physiology Decision support • Systematic conservation planning • Balancing development with biodiversity objectives Online resources and tools • Immediate mobility of raw research outputs Transformed output for direct use by general public, industry and government • • Knowledge export (local, state, national, international)