Surface Transportation Board Rail Energy Transportation Advisory - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Surface Transportation Board – Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee Meeting Performance Measures Subcommittee Update October 2, 2014

Using EIA, AAR and individual railroad data sources, a data table is assimilated, and from it…... Six coal-related dashboards, organized as follows: 1. Coal Production, Consumption, and Inventories Dashboard 2. Net Generation by Fuel Type Dashboard 3. Coal Exports Dashboard 4. Western Rail Coal Carloads Dashboard 5. Eastern Rail Coal Carloads Dashboard 6. Canadian Rail Coal Carloads Dashboard 7. Railroad Coal Train Speed Dashboard Most dashboards have three sections: a. Left - historical and forecasted data (no forecasts of rail metrics) b. Middle - comparison for the most recent quarter (Q3 or Q4 as noted) c. Right - current YTD comparison versus the 5-year range 2

Coal Production MM Tons 2013 YTD Appalachia Interior Western Total Performance Summary Q1 71.3 45 126.8 243.1 Q2 66.2 48.1 142.4 256.7 Sum: 137.5 93.1 269.2 499.8 Coal Production ( 2014 YTD vs 2013 YTD) 2014 YTD Appalachia Interior Western Total Appalachia: Increased 3.4 million tons (+2.5%) Q1 70.9 46.8 127.2 244.9 Q2 70 49.5 135.2 254.7 Interior: Increased 3.2 million tons (+3.4%) Sum: 140.9 96.3 262.4 499.6 Western: Decreased 6.8 million tons (-2.5%) Tonnage 3.4 3.2 -6.8 -0.2 Percent 2.47% 3.44% -2.53% -0.04% Total Production: Decreased 0.2 million tons (-.04%) Coal Consumption MM Tons Coal Exports MM Tons 2013 YTD Electric Pwr Other Coke Total 2013 YTD Met Steam Total Coal Consumption ( 2014 YTD vs 2013 YTD) Q1 212 11.8 5.3 229.1 Q1 18.2 13.7 31.8 Q2 200.2 10.6 5.1 215.9 Q2 16.1 13.3 29.4 Electricity/Power Increased 16.3 million tons (+3.9%) Sum: 412.2 22.4 10.4 445 Sum: 34.3 27 61.2 Retail/Other Increased 1.3 million tons (+5.8%) 2014 YTD Electric Pwr Other Coke Total 2014 YTD Met Steam Total Q1 231.7 12.2 5 248.9 Q1 16.9 10.9 27.7 Q2 196.8 11.5 5.1 213.4 Q2 14.7 8.3 23 Met/Coke Decreased 0.3 million tons (-2.9%) Sum: 428.5 23.7 10.1 462.3 Sum: 31.6 19.2 50.7 Total Consumption Increased 31.1 million tons (+3.5%) Tonnage 16.3 1.3 -0.3 17.3 Tonnage -2.7 -7.8 -10.5 Percent 3.95% 5.80% -2.88% 3.89% Percent -7.87% -28.89% -17.16% Coal Exports ( 2014 YTD vs 2013 YTD) Coal Inventories MM Tons 2013 YTD Electric Pwr Bit Sub-Bit Total Met Coal: Decreased 2.7 million net tons (-7.9%) Q1 171.5 81.8 88.7 342 Sum: 171.5 81.8 88.7 342 Steam Coal: Decreased 7.8 million net tons (-28%) 2014 YTD Electric Pwr Bit Sub-Bit Total Total Exports: Decreased 10 million net tons (-17%) Q1 117.9 57 60.7 235.6 Sum: 117.9 57 60.7 235.6 Tonnage -53.6 -24.8 -28 -106.4 Percent -31.25% -30.32% -31.57% -31.11% 3

Performance Summary Railroad Carloads (CY 2013 estimate versus CY 2012) BNSF: Increased 56,500 carloads (+5.4%) Union Pacific: Increased 23,300 carloads (+3.3%) Kansas City Southern: Decreased 2,200 carloads (-3.1%) Norfolk Southern: Decreased 30,000 carloads (-5.7%) CSX Transportation: Decreased 10,800 carloads (-2.1%) Canadian National: Decreased 3,500 carloads (-4.2%) Canadian Pacific: Increased 9,000 carloads (+8.7%) Total Carloads: Increased 43,300 carloads (+1.4%) Car Originations / *KCS Receipts (000 Carloads) 2013 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN CP Total Q1 542 364 49 266 235 58 60 1,574 Q2 513 373 48 262 239 61 55 1,551 Sum: 1,055 737 97 528 474 119 115 3,125 Average Train Speeds (MPH) 2013 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN Avg 2014 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN CP Total Q1 23.4 27.9 28.1 17.8 19.6 25.1 24 Q1 565 388 48 229 218 53 60 1,561 Q2 20.7 27.1 26.6 17.5 19.3 25.6 23 Q2 547 373 46 269 246 61 65 1,607 Sum: 1,112 761 94 498 464 114 125 3,168 2014 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN Avg Q1 18.8 25.6 26 17.1 18.2 24.9 22 Carloads 57 24 -3 -30 -10 -5 10 43 Percent 5.4% 3.3% -3.1% -5.7% -2.1% -4.2% 8.7% 1.4% Q2 17.5 24.3 25.1 16.6 16.6 25.5 21 4

U.S. COAL PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND INVENTORIES DASHBOARD Historical and Forecasted Production Q2 Production Comparison 2014 Production vs 5-Year Range Total Appalachia Interior Western 5 Year Range 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 350 300 Forecast Forecast 300 300 250 250 280 Mn Short Tons Mn Short Tons 200 Mn Short Tons 200 260 150 150 100 240 100 50 50 220 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Appalachia Interior Western Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Historical and Forecasted Consumption Q2 Consumption Comparison 2014 Consumption vs 5-Year Range 5 Year Range 2014 Electric Pwr Sector Retail & Other Industry Coke 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 350 350 Forecast Forecast 300 300 300 250 250 280 Mn Short Tons Mn Short tons 200 Mn Short Tons 200 260 150 150 100 240 100 50 50 220 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 200 Electric Pwr Sector Retail & Other Industry Coke Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Historical and Forecasted End-of-Period Inventories Q2 End-of-Period Inventories Comparison 2014 End-of-Period Inventories vs 5-Year Range Bituminous Coal Sub-Bituminous Coal Electric Pwr Sector 5 Year Range 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 250 220 250 Forecast 200 200 180 200 160 Mn Short Tons 150 Mn Short Tons Mn Short Tons 140 150 120 100 100 100 80 50 60 50 0 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Electric Pwr Sector Bituminous Coal Sub-Bituminous Coal 5 Source Data: EIA

NET GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE DASHBOARD Historical Net Generation by Fuel Type Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydroelectric Renewables 1200000 1000000 (000 Megawatthours) 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Data: EIA 6

U.S. COAL EXPORTS DASHBOARD Historical and Forecasted Exports Q2 Exports Comparison 2014 Exports vs 5-Year Range Met Steam 5 Year Range 2014 40 40 40 Forecast Forecas t 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 Mn Short Tons 25 25 Mn Short Tons Mn Short Tons 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Met Steam Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Data: EIA 7

WESTERN RAILROAD COAL CARLOADS DASHBOARD BNSF Q2 Originations Comparison 2013 BNSF Originations vs 5-Year Range BNSF Historical Originations 5 Year Range 2013 640 700 640 620 620 600 600 600 580 580 500 560 Carloads (000) 560 Carloads (000) 540 Carloads (000) 400 540 520 500 520 300 480 500 460 480 200 440 460 420 100 440 400 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 420 0 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 UP Q2 Originations Comparison UP Historical Originations 2013 UP Originations vs 5-Year Range 460 5 Year Range 2013 600 640 620 440 500 600 580 420 400 560 Carloads (000) Carloads (000) 540 Carload (000) 400 300 520 500 380 200 480 460 360 100 440 420 340 400 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 380 320 360 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 KCS Historical Receipts KCS Q2 Receipts Comparison 2013 KCS Receipts vs 5-Year Range 5 Year Range 2013 70 56 70 65 54 65 52 60 60 Carloads (000) Carloads (000) 50 Carloads (000) 55 55 48 50 50 46 45 45 44 40 40 42 35 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Data: AAR, BNSF, UP, KCS 8

EASTERN RAILROAD COAL CARLOADS DASHBOARD CSX Historical Originations CSX Q2 Originations Comparison 2013 CSX Originations vs 5-Year Range 5 Year Range 2013 400 400 380 380 380 360 360 360 340 340 340 Carloads (000) 320 320 Carloads (000) Carloads (000) 320 300 300 300 280 280 280 260 260 260 240 240 240 220 220 220 200 200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 NS Historical Originations NS Q2 Originations Comparison 2013 NS Originations vs 5-Year Range 400 5 Year Range 2013 320 400 380 310 380 360 360 300 340 Carloads (000) Carloads (000) Carloads (000) 340 320 290 320 300 280 280 300 270 260 280 240 260 260 220 250 240 200 220 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 240 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 200 230 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source data: AAR, CSX, NS 9