Working Group (WG) SCENARIO BUILDING STORYLINES TYNDP 2020 Scenario Workshop / Brussels 29 th May 2018
ENTSO Storylines 2050 DECARBONISED FUTURE ? Alpha ( α) Epsilon ( ε) Beta ( β) Delta ( δ) Gamma ( γ) Page 2
• Low growth of storage, P2G develops after 2030 Storyline: Alpha ( α) • Heat pump technology common in new buildings and • National focus on climate change, driven by ETS and moderate growth of the gas condensing boiler national subsidies • Electrification of heating and the light transport fleet • Moderate economic growth sees stable development • Growth of RES but dependent on National Policies • Gas sees a growth in the heavy goods transport • Gas-fired generation provides the necessary sector depending on the country flexibility to balance renewables in the power system • Low surplus capacity in generation portfolio Macroeconomic Industry Electricity Gas Supply Storage Residential Transport Trends Systems ON TARGET Page 3
• P2G and batteries are key storage Storyline: Beta ( β) technologies • Sustainable growth • Electricity generation remains mainly centralised • Global emission trading • Fossil fuels replaced with electricity and green gas • Low-carbon technologies competitive without subsidies in heating & industrial sectors • Wind & solar are the leading sources of generation • Electric vehicles used in passenger transport while • Carbon-free gases substitutes natural gas, centralised gas used in heavy duty & shipping production from P2G • Bio energies sustainably managed Macroeconomic Industry Electricity Gas Supply Storage Residential Transport Trends Systems ON TARGET Page 4
Storyline: Gamma ( γ) • • P2G storage available Favorable economic environment • • High efficiency standards of consumer goods Global emissions scheme • • High increase of electric vehicles and heat pumps RES is built on commercial conditions • • Electrification of cars, LNG for heavy goods and shipping RES is built where the best resources are found • • Flexible gas-fired units provide adequacy High growth of P2G and Bio Methane Macroeconomic Industry Electricity Gas Supply Storage Residential Transport Trends Systems Page 5
Storyline: Delta ( δ) • Significant leaps in innovation of small scale generation and storage technologies • Smart digital solutions develop at all scales • High economic growth with strong climate policy • Home energy storage systems become more • Prosumers engaged in decarbonisation but also selecting common, with smart technology management price competitive solutions • Rapid increase in electric vehicles with smart • Decentralised RES growth, driven mainly by small scale PV charging • Electrification in combination with renewable gases • Renewable gas solutions for heavy transport decarbonises heating residential sector, utilising hybrid & shipping from bio sources solutions Macroeconomic Industry Electricity Gas Supply Storage Residential Transport Trends Systems ON TARGET Page 6
Storyline: Epsilon ( ε) • P2G is slow to develop at scale, used for storage • Hybrid heat pumps and gas boilers installed new • Low economic growth dwellings • Low climate action and limited national subsidies • Oil and hybrid technologies used in private transport, as electric vehicle uptake is slow • Potential for growth of renewable technologies lower, • limited by lack of national policy or delayed Gas and oil significant in the shipping and heavy good transport sectors implementation • • Some importation of carbon free fuels Low growth in new storage with adequacy problems solved locally Macroeconomic Industry Electricity Gas Supply Storage Residential Transport Trends Systems SLIGHTLY BEHIND Page 7
Qualitative Spiders The storyline matrix allows a relative description on growth or short description on the leverage applied by each component of the scenario. From Storylines Matrix to Spider Diagrams The purpose is to identify gaps or overlaps in the Storylines Page 8 NOTE: The figures shown are illustrative.
Evolution of Fuel Use in Transport Electric and hybrid vehicle Alpha ( α) Beta ( β) Gamma ( γ) Delta ( δ) Epsilon ( ε) Renewable Gas vehicle liquid fuels (incl. H2) Page 9
Evolution of Electricity Generation Coal Alpha ( α) Wind Gas Beta ( β) Gamma ( γ) Delta ( δ) Epsilon ( ε) Solar Nuclear Page 10
Evolution of Gas Demand Bio Methane Alpha ( α) Beta ( β) Gamma ( γ) Delta ( δ) Epsilon ( ε) Synthethic Gas Natural Gas (H2/CH4) Page 11
Evolution of Carbon-Neutral Imports Electricity Alpha ( α) Beta ( β) Gamma ( γ) Delta ( δ) Epsilon ( ε) Liquids Gases Page 12
Your comments on the Storylines Based on the Storylines descriptions do you believe that they capture a broad enough scope of possible futures? Are there any elements / drivers in the Storylines that are missing? Page 13
Next Steps in the Process • Storylines & Stakeholder Engagement • Consultation Have your say ! Storylines to Numbers • Data Collection & Stakeholder Engagement Guidelines • Validation • Optimization or Translation • Electricity Market Simulation • Results • Consultation • Scenario Analysis, Discussion & Report Page 14
From Qualitative to Quantifiable Once the storylines are confirmed the next step is to add quantities: Coal Coal Wind Gas Wind Gas From Storylines to Numbers Alpha ( α) Alpha ( α) Beta ( β) Beta ( β) Gamma ( γ) Gamma ( γ) Delta ( δ) Delta ( δ) Epsilon ( ε) Epsilon ( ε) Solar Nuclear Solar Nuclear We propose to use spiders that provide energy volumes (TWh) and installed capacities (GW) to highlight scenario differences, with the possibility to compare to today! Do you agree? Page 15 NOTE: The figures shown are illustrative.
From Qualitative to Quantifiable From storyline to numbers: For TYNDP 2020 we propose to use decarbonisation ambition charts to provide a primary energy mix. Do you agree with this approach? Page 16
Decarbonisation Ambition Proposed GHG reduction projections for our storylines. Do they look reasonable? Page 17
Decarbonisation Ambition Decarbonisation Ambition Level Game Changer & Cost Reduction Development 95% De-centralised Innovation 2050 80% Technology Innovation 60% 2040 Length of arc reflects the range of possible 50% outcomes Scenario 40% 2030 2040 Year & Scenario 2025 Button 2030 2025 2025 2040 2050 Alpha ( α ) 2030 STATUS QUO 20% 2025 95% 2030 2025 Beta ( β ) 2040 Technology Innovation 2050 Gamma ( γ ) 2040 2030 40% Delta ( δ ) 2050 Epsilon ( ε ) 50% 2040 2050 60% 80% 95% Game Changer & Cost Centralised Innovation Reduction Development Smart Prosumer Page 18
Thank you for listening Next on the Agenda Lunch 12:30 Please return to the Room at 13:30 Interactive Sessions: 13:30 Storyline Discussion 15:00 “Build your own Scenario” Page 19
Recommend
More recommend
