SPENDING PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MEXICAN NATIONALS ON EL - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SPENDING PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MEXICAN NATIONALS ON EL PASO: A COMPARISON TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS, 2010-2012 Presented to: ICSC West Texas Idea Exchange Presented by: Steve Nivin, Ph.D. Presented on: April 22, 2015 Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at steve.nivin@gmail.com or 210-517-3609.

Data & Methodology 2 ¨ Core data: Visa card spending by month ¨ Time period: 2010-2012 ¨ Spending by category based on survey results reported in other studies ¤ Does not capture real estate purchases or business investments ¨ Economic impacts calculated using IMPLAN input- output model ¨ 20-county region

20-County Region 3

Spending in the region is substantial and growing 4 Total Spending by Mexican Nationals Across 20-County Area $500,000,000 Total Spending 2011: $2.4B $450,000,000 2012: $2.7B $400,000,000 $350,000,000 $300,000,000 2010 $250,000,000 2011 2012 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Counties along border with MX, Bexar, and Central TX see largest amount of activity 5 Total Annual Spending by Mexican Nationals by County County Total Spending (January data not available in 2010) (2012) $1,000,000,000 $900,000,000 Hidalgo $863,089,738 $800,000,000 El Paso $445,991,683 $700,000,000 Annual Spending $600,000,000 Webb $392,629,269 $500,000,000 Bexar $373,995,021 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 Cameron $232,317,331 $200,000,000 Hays $157,625,455 $100,000,000 $0 Aransas Atascosa Bandera Bexar Cameron Comal ElPaso Guadalupe Hidalgo Kendall Maverick Medina Nueces SanPatricio ValVerde Webb Wilson Hays Travis Williamson Travis $66,977,248 County 2010 2011 2012

Mexican nationals spending increased across most counties from 2011-2012 6 Growth of Spending by Mexican Nationals: 2011-2012 50.0% 44.3% 44.5% % Change in Annual Spending 40.0% 30.8% 30.0% 29.2% 30.0% from 2011-2012 21.3% 17.5% 17.2% 16.6% 16.5% 20.0% 12.9% 11.3% 11.2% 6.3% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.5% 0.0% -1.1% -3.8% -10.0% -6.2% -9.7% -20.0% County

Big increases in spending during months with major holidays 7 Month-to-Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending Across 20-County Area 100% 80% 60% 40% 2010 20% 2011 0% 2012 -20% -40% -60% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Spending growth around holidays has been increasing 8 Month-to-Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending Across 20-County Area for Select Months 100% 92.53% 84.24% 87.70% 90% 82.25% 80% 66.12% 70% 62.70% 60% 2010 50% 45.23% 2011 38.86% 40% 35.03% 34.49% 2012 31.19% 26.96% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr Jul Nov Dec

Big increases in spending during months with major holidays in El Paso, too 9 Month-to Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending in El Paso 100% 80% 60% 40% 2010 20% 2011 0% 2012 -20% -40% -60% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Similar holiday spending pattern in El Paso 10 Month-to-Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending in El Paso for Select Months 80% 75.56% 64.60% 70% 63.14% 60% 53.03% 48.22% 50% 42.47% 2010 38.50% 40% 34.23% 2011 27.19% 30% 2012 24.33% 20.56% 20% 12.74% 10% 0% Apr Jul Nov Dec

Spending boosts around major holidays persist across counties 11

Fluctuations in peso could be one reason for increases in spending 12 Change in Mexican National Spending Relative to Peso/$ Exchange Rate 50.00% 14.5000 14.0000 40.00% % Change in Spending from Same 13.5000 MX Pesos Per U.S. $ Period Previous Year 30.00% 13.0000 20.00% 12.5000 12.0000 10.00% 11.5000 0.00% 11.0000 -10.00% 10.5000 Growth in Spending from Same Period Previous Year MX Pesos to One US$ Source for exchange rate data: Federal Reserve System

Largest proportion of spending is on clothing 13

$446 million in total spending by Mexican Nationals in El Paso in 2012 14

Spending translates into substantial impacts on the local and state economies annually 15 Economic Impacts Resulting from Mexican Nationals Spending: 2012 (2013 $) Employment Income Output El Paso County 4,768 $128,920,928 $399,760,138 San Antonio MSA 4,343 $144,762,606 $394,540,989 Border Area 22,190 $592,954,096 $1,821,790,562 Central Texas 2,550 $85,717,997 $229,434,724 Entire Region 29,456 $925,884,587 $2,632,930,021

A large source of revenue to local and State government coffers 16 Fiscal Impacts Resulting from Mexican Nationals Spending in 2012 (2013 $) Indirect Household Taxes Business Taxes El Paso County $17,956,893 $763,138 San Antonio MSA $15,858,227 $969,455 Border Area $81,910,822 $3,686,438 Central Texas $9,388,815 $561,632 Entire Region $108,315,954 $6,009,050 NOTE: Includes revenues to local governments and the State government but does not include sales taxes.

Summary 17 ¨ Impacts are large especially in those communities bordering Mexico, San Antonio, and the Central Texas area ¤ Even larger when consider spending on real estate and business investments ¨ Big boosts in spending around major holidays ¨ Provides substantial support to a variety of industries ¨ Lends stability to local economies ¤ Strengthens ties between two economies and helps drive international trade

18 Thank you!!!