Som e Aspects of Vision 2 0 3 0 Conference On Security And Cooperation In South Asia: A Global Perspective October 8-10, 2007 Berlin, Germany Dr Shaukat Hameed Khan Planning Commission Government of Pakistan Islamabad
Vision 2030 “ Developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan through rapid and sustainable development in a resource constrained economy by deploying knowledge inputs ”
The Historical Context for Vision 2030 Playing Catch-up: Earlier Exercises and Studies Germany with the UK: ~ 140 years ago: ( Gerschenkron , 1962) History’s Most Ambitious Benchmarking Exercise: Dec 1871 Meiji Japan’s blueprint for a modern state. ( Morishima , 1982 Western Europe and the US: Concepts of “technological congruence” & “social capability” to (Abramovitz , 1994) characterize the situation for latecomers The Pacific Rim Countries …. and now China
What Can / Should Pakistan Look Like in 2030 Six Themes for Vision 2030 • The Global Imperatives and Societal Transformations • The Just and Sustainable Society • The Innovative Society: Knowledge, Technology, and Competition • The Prosperous Society • Macroeconomic Framework • The State; its institutions and Instruments Perils of forecasting ! (the 640 K syndrome)
Global Imperatives • The Techno-Economic- Knowledge Revolution • Dispersion of information and technology • The changing nature of work and the workplace • Massive Realignment of Economic Activity: • Economic liberalization • Technological advances • Capital market developments • Demographic shifts • Centers of economic activity are shifting profoundly, not just globally, but also regionally. • Relocation of manufacturing, services and design activities
Major Challenges for Pakistan • Depleting Natural Resources : water, land, energy • The Demographic Transition • The 24 / 7 Society • The city of the future as a self-sustaining unit • Urban and rural economics ? • The Looming Global Mono-culture • Global Race for Talent
Valu e USD, b illio n 1000 1500 2000 2500 500 0 M ach in ery/sem i m an u factu res Electro n ics 1. Composition /Tech. Content of World Trade F u els The Nature and Scale of the Challenge C h em icals / Ph arm aceu ticals Growth Rate ( %) Value, USD ( B) A u to m o tive Pro d u cts A g ricu ltu ral Pro d u cts Group C lo th in g & T extiles 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 Iro n & Steel 1976 1978 M in erals/O th er Resource Based M etals 1980 0 10 20 30 40 50 1982 G ro w th ( p ercen t) 1984 1986 Low Tech 1988 1990 ref: WTO 2006 1992 Medium Tech 1994 1996 1998 2000 Hi-Tech 2002 2004
2. Changing Share of High-technology in Manufacturing, by Country / Region: 1990–2003 The United States, China, and other Asian countries have Shifted ted The United States, China, and other Asian countries have Shif into high- -tech manufacturing more rapidly than the EU and Japan tech manufacturing more rapidly than the EU and Japan into high Asia-8 includes S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and India Source: “SEI 2006” National Science Foundation USA
3. China’s R&D expenditures relative to those of USA, Japan, and EU-25 [ 1991–2003 ] Chinese R&D investment, 1991 to 2003: Average annual increase >> USA, EU 25 , Japan Source: “SEI 2006” National Science Foundation USA
3. Shift in Global Labour Skill Levels Example: Irish Workforce , Educational Attainments ( %) 1972 1982 1992 2002 Primary 50 36 22 8 Secondary 21 24 28 28 H. Secondary 20 24 29 28 Tertiary 9 16 21 35 Ease of Doing Business: Pakistan ranks at 76 out of 180 countries. Rankings of the famous BRIC economies? Brazil at 122, Russia at 106, India at 120, China at 83. Vietnam is at 91 [ Ref: World Bank, Doing Business 2008 ]
Bandwidth Connectivity as seen from the USA Teledensity at present in Pakistan is ~ 45 % of the 160 m population ( over 71 million connections, growing 2.8 – 3.0 m / month ) Behind Europe 6 Yrs: Russia, L. Am. 7 Yrs: M.E / SE Asia 10 Yrs: South Asia 11 Yrs: Cent. Asia 12 Yrs: Africa Ref: Rehm atullah et al. Stanford, 2 0 0 5 , The Pinger Project
Many More Challenges for Pakistan: A Sample • The Demographic Transition • The Habitat and Loss of Diverity : Water, Land, Climate Change, Food and the Environment • Food Security • Urbanisation • Education and Skills: Shortages, gaps • Energy and Security: Competition, or cooperation
Current Population: 160 m 224 - 260 million in 2030 (over 60 % urban) 2005 2030 90-94 Age Different times of Male Age 90-94 Male Female 75-79 Female 75-79 60-64 peaking 60-64 45-49 45-49 30-34 The demographic 30-34 15-19 15-19 transition is a unique event 0-4 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 China Per cent Per cent Millions Millions In Pakistan. It has never Age happened before, and once 90-94 90-94 Male Age Male Female 75-79 75-79 Female completed will never 60-64 60-64 45-49 45-49 happen again. We are 30-34 30-34 15-19 15-19 living it now. 0-4 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 India Per cent per cent Rich countries grew rich 90-94 90-94 Male Age Age Male 75-79 Female before they became old. 75-79 Female 60-64 60-64 45-49 45-49 30-34 30-34 15-19 15-19 0-4 0-4 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 Per cent Per cent
Pakistan: Most Urbanised Country in S. Asia • Globally, urban dw ellers exceeded those in rural areas for the first tim e in hum an history in 2 0 0 6 … Shenzen in China • Pakistan’s urban population : from 5 5 m to 1 3 5 m ( 2 0 3 0 ) • More and m ore settlem ents w ill grow into their equilibrium size – optim al and functional hierarchies More and more of the economic power is concentrated in mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants Klaus Klienfeld , CEO Siemens, 2006
The Looming Water Shortage in Pakistan Current storage capacity : 9 % of avg annual flows World average : 40 % of avg annual flows Year Population (m) Water / Capita (m 3 ) 1951 34 5650 2003 146 1200 2010 168 1000 2030 230 - 260 770 - 680 Efficient Water Use : Ownership, Technology, Processes , Mindset ? Climate Change & the Monsoon Model
The Water Challenge World’s largest contiguous irrigation system; BUT • The cropping intensity for major crops in Pakistan: (twice the 75% assumed in the Indus Basin Treaty) • Total arable land : 22 million hectares • 11 % declared ‘disaster area’ because of severe water- logging and salinity (water table only 0 – 5 feet) • 20 % under stress (water table 5–10 ft below the surface). • Overpumping of the aquifers: Islamabad / Rawalpindi :~ water table fell by 1-2 meters/year (1982 to 2000) • Severe pollution in cotton growing areas Green Revolution essentially over
Food Security / Crop Improvements expected Changing Dietary Habits !! • Fed ourselves & exported 1-2 m tons nearly every year • Case of Cotton from NIAB ! Potential Science Gap ? T 4 Pak- World Gap 55 - 83 % Outpu t T 3 Pakistani Research, 25-57% T 2 Best Pak. Practice, 31-75% T 1 Current Pakistani Average T 0 Inputs The gene revolution
Need to make the accumulation of knowledge and collective competence the driver of economic growth. 50.0 Possible Enrolment Figures 2002-2030 14.0 Population, (m), Enrolment numbers in Age Group 17- 23 40.0 12.0 10.0 30.0 8.0 (m) 20.0 6.0 4.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Population in age group, 17-23 Year Enrolment stays at present rate of ~4% Desired Enrolment increase, reaching 8% in 2010 and 20% in 2022 Linear (Enrolment stays at present rate of ~4%) Ref: MTDF 2005-10 How do we pay for all this? The Tradition of Waqf?
Maintaining the societal infrastructure? OR Produce more goods, services, food etc etc ? 60.0 20 2003- 48.4 46.9 50.0 TVE enrolment, % 10 [Ref: EFA Global 04 40.0 Monitoring Report, 32.5 31.6 2003-04, except 4,0 30.0 24.9 Pakistan (Min. of 19.0 20.0 1.3 Edu. 2006) 13.1 11.4 8.3 6.0 10.0 3.8 1.0 0.0 a n K d e a n d a l n h n i i c e a i z l n e a n a s U s a n r a a p r t e d a y r o I s r l a e a l a d t r B K i i s r e w J a k a l F u a h a l z . S g M A t S P T i n w a Country S B 25 250.0 Allocation ( Rs billion) Percent 23.5 19.2 20 200.0 (Rs billions) Allocations, 219.0 P ercent 15 150.0 Share of Technical 10.5 133.5 9.5 10 100.0 11.2 69.0 Education as Percent 8.7 8.2 6.7 of Total Allocation for 5 50.0 23.1 13.8 11.5 3.7 0.3 3.6 3.5 1.4 0.6 Education 0 0.0 Ist , 1955-60 2nd, 1960-65 3rd , 1965-70 5th, 1978-83 6th, 1983-88 7th, 1988-93 8th, 1993-98 MTDF, 2005-10 Non Plan 1998-05 Non Plan 1970-78 Plan Periods
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