Public insurance ê large income decline -35% Sp UK It Por US Income decline Ire Can Swi Asl Aus Bel Ger Den Fin Nth Fr Kor Swe Nor -8 8 21% Public insurance (minus health and ALMP) Income decline: average year-to-year household disposable income decline for households in which an individual experiences an earnings decline of 20% or more. 2005-2010. Data source: Cournède et al, "Effects of Pro-Growth Policies … " 2015, figure 18. Public insurance generosity: public social expenditures as a share of GDP, adjusted for the size of the elderly population and the unemployment rate and subtracting spending on health and ALMP. 2000-2010. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Employment ê large income decline -35% Sp UK It Por US Income decline Ire Can Swi Aus Asl Bel Ger Den Fin Nth Fr Kor Swe Nor -8 62 81% Employment rate Income decline: average year-to-year household disposable income decline for households in which an individual experiences an earnings decline of 20% or more. 2005-2010. Data source: Cournède et al, "Effects of Pro-Growth Policies … " 2015, figure 18. Employment rate: employed persons age 25-64 as a share of the population age 25-64. 2000-2007. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Equality of opportunity
Early educ é intergenerational mobility .1 Den Intergenerational mobility Swe Ger Nor Asl Can Fin UK Fr It US .5 0 1.5% Early education expenditures Intergenerational mobility: correlation between the earnings of parents and those of their children, with axis values reversed. Data source: John Ermisch et al, eds., From Parents to Children , Russell Sage Foundation, 2012, figure 1.1. Early education expenditures: share of GDP. 1980-95. Data source: OECD, Social Expenditures Database. "Asl" is Australia.
Social democratic capitalism seems to be superior at producing an "expanded Rawlsian" result
An "expanded Rawlsian" result Basic liberties Equality of opportunity Distribution favoring the least well-off Today Rawls likely would add income security
Tradeoffs?
We want more than "expanded Rawls" Community Freedom Democracy Good government Economic equality Happiness Economic opportunity Health Economic prosperity Housing Economic security Inclusion Economic stability Information Education Law and order Employment Openness and support Environment for other countries Family Privacy Finance Safety
Tradeoffs? Here I will use the Nordic countries as stand-ins for social democratic capitalism I'll compare across countries, rather than look at associations between variables
Services and fairness instead of income Rich and upper-middle-class households forgo cash income in favor of Services for themselves: early education, free college, retraining, job placement Fairness: higher wages and more transfers and services for the least well-off
Services and fairness instead of income P75 household income $80k US Swi, Nor, Asl, Can Den, Aus, Ja, Ger, Nth UK, Fin, Ire, Fr Kor, Bel 48 Swe, It, Sp 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Posttransfer-posttax household income. The incomes are adjusted for household size and then rescaled to reflect a three-person household, adjusted for inflation, and converted to US dollars using purchasing power parities. "k" = thousand. The lines are loess curves. Data sources: Luxembourg Income Study; OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Freedom Personal freedom 10 Den Aus, Nor, Nth, Ger Fin, Swi, Swe Ire, Asl, UK, Bel, Can Por It, NZ Fr, US Ja Kor, Sp 8 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Average score for legal protection, security, freedom of movement, freedom of religion, freedom of association/assembly/civil society, freedom of expression, and freedom in relationships. Scale is 0 to 10. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: Ian Vasquez and Tanja Porcnik, The Human Freedom Index, Cato Institute. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Freedom Perceived freedom to make life choices 100% Nor, Fin, Den Swi, NZ, Asl, Swe Can, Nth Aus, Ire, Ger, Bel Por, Ja, UK Fr Sp, US It, Kor 50 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Share responding "satisfied" to the question "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your freedom to choose what you do with your life?" The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: Gallup World Poll, via the World Happiness Report 2017, online appendix. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Freedom
Economic growth Innovation 1 Swi Fin, US, Swe Nth, UK Ger, Den Ja Ire Nor, Kor, Aus Can, Fr, NZ, Asl Bel Por 32 It, Sp 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Innovation rank: average innovation ranking for 2015 according to the Global Competitiveness Report and the Global Innovation Index. Data sources: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016, pillar 12, table 5; Cornell University, Insead, and WIPO, The Global Innovation Index 2015, p. xxx. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Economic growth GDP per capita (log) $60k Nor Swi, US Ire, Nth, Asl, Swe Aus, Ger, Can, Den Bel, UK, Fin, Fr Ja, NZ It, Sp 30 Por 15 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Adjusted for inflation and converted to US dollars using purchasing power parities. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Economic growth High Ire Economic growth Nor US Fin Nth Swe Aus UK Asl Den Swi Can Bel Ja Sp Ger Fr It Por NZ Low 30% 60% Government revenues The data are for 1979-2007. The line is a linear regression line, with Ireland and Norway excluded. Economic growth: average annual rate of change in GDP per capita, adjusted for initial level (catch-up). Data source: OECD. Government revenues: share of GDP. Includes all levels of government: central, regional, and local. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Economic growth Denmark Government revenues: share of GDP. Includes all levels of government: federal, state, and local. The line is a loess curve. Data sources: for 1960- 2007, OECD; for 1913-60, Vito Tanzi, Government versus Markets , Cambridge University Press, 2011, pp. 9, 92 (with a minor adjustment). GDP per capita: natural log of inflation-adjusted GDP per capita. A log scale is used to focus on rates of change. The vertical axis does not begin at zero. The line is a linear regression line; it represents a constant rate of economic growth. Data source: Angus Maddison, "Statistics on World Population, GDP, and Per Capita GDP," ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm.
Economic growth Sweden Government revenues: share of GDP. Includes all levels of government: federal, state, and local. The line is a loess curve. Data sources: for 1960- 2007, OECD; for 1913-60, Vito Tanzi, Government versus Markets , Cambridge University Press, 2011, pp. 9, 92 (with a minor adjustment). GDP per capita: natural log of inflation-adjusted GDP per capita. A log scale is used to focus on rates of change. The vertical axis does not begin at zero. The line is a linear regression line; it represents a constant rate of economic growth. Data source: Angus Maddison, "Statistics on World Population, GDP, and Per Capita GDP," ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm.
Economic growth United States Government revenues: share of GDP. Includes all levels of government: federal, state, and local. The line is a loess curve. Data sources: for 1960- 2007, OECD; for 1946-55, Economic Report of the President , 2011, tables B-79, B-86; for 1913-25, Vito Tanzi, Government versus Markets , Cambridge University Press, 2011, pp. 9, 92 (with a minor adjustment). GDP per capita: natural log of inflation-adjusted GDP per capita. A log scale is used to focus on rates of change. The vertical axis does not begin at zero. The line is a linear regression line; it represents a constant rate of economic growth. Data source: Angus Maddison, "Statistics on World Population, GDP, and Per Capita GDP," ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm.
Economic growth Ire 1% Change in economic growth NZ UK Asl US Nor Can Den Swe Nth Bel Fin Swi Fr Sp Aus Por It Ger -6 Ja 2 16% Change in tax revenues Economic growth: average annual rate of change in GDP per capita. 1979-2007 minus 1950-73. Data source: Angus Maddison, "Statistics on World Population, GDP, and Per Capita GDP," ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm. Tax revenues: share of GDP. Includes all levels of government: central, regional, and local. 1979-2007 minus 1965. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Economic growth Is social democratic capitalism better for economic growth? Encourages entrepreneurship Facilitates employment by women and those from less-advantaged backgrounds Allows unemployed workers more time to reskill and choose a productive job Limits income inequality But I don't see support for this hypothesis in the cross-country or over-time data
Employment Employment rate 84% Swe, Swi NZ, Nor, Ja, Ger Den, UK, Nth Can, Asl, Aus, Fin US, Kor, Por, Fr Ire, Bel Sp It 64 50 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Employed persons as a share of all persons. Age 25-64. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Health Life expectancy Ja, Sp, Swi, It, Fr 83 Asl, Swe, Kor, Nor, Nth Aus, NZ, Can, Bel, Ire UK, Fin, Ger, Por, Den 79 US 50 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Years of life expectancy at birth. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Health Healthy life expectancy Swe 70 Nor UK, Ire Swi Bel, Sp, Fr It Den Nth Aus Fin 58 Por, Ger 50 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Expected years of life without limitations on usual activities. At birth. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD, Health at a Glance: Europe, 2012 . "Aus" is Austria.
Education PISA scores, 15-year-olds 530 Ja Can, Fin Kor Ire, Ger, Nth, Swi, NZ Den, Nor, Bel, Asl UK, Por, Swe, Fr Aus, Sp US, It 485 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Average student score on PISA reading, math, and science tests. 15-year-olds. The PISA tests ask students to solve problems they haven’t seen before, to identify patterns that aren't obvious, and to make compelling written arguments. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Education College degree Nor Nth, UK 40% Kor, Fin Den, Asl US NZ, Ja Swe, Can, Ire Swi, Por Fr, Sp Bel, It Aus 20 Ger 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Ages 25 to 34. Bachelor's (or bachelor's equivalent) or more. Data sources: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics , table 603.30, using OECD data; OECD, Education at a Glance 2015 , table A1.3a, p. 41. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Safety Homicides 10 US 5 Fin, NZ, Can Por, Asl, Bel, Nth, Swe, UK Fr, Den, Ire, It, Nor, Sp Ger, Aus, Swi, Ja 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Homicides per 100,000 population. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Safety Feel safe walking alone at night 90% Nor Swi Fin, Den Can, Sp, Aus, Nth UK, Ire, Swe Ger, US Fr, Ja, Bel, Por Kor NZ Asl 60 It 50 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Question: "Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city or area where you live?" The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD Better Life, using Gallup World Poll data. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Shared prosperity Median household income $58k Nor, Swi US Asl, Can, Aus Den, Swe, Fin Ger, Bel, Nth, Fr Kor Ja, Ire, It, UK Sp 23 Por 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Posttransfer-posttax household income. The incomes are adjusted for household size and then rescaled to reflect a three-person household, adjusted for inflation, and converted to US dollars using purchasing power parities. "k" = thousand. The lines are loess curves. Data sources: Luxembourg Income Study; OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Shared prosperity P10 household income $31k Nor Swi Aus, Den Can, Fin, Nth Asl, Ger Bel, Fr, Ire, Swe NZ, US It, UK Kor Ja Sp Por 10 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Posttransfer-posttax household income. The incomes are adjusted for household size and then rescaled to reflect a three-person household, adjusted for inflation, and converted to US dollars using purchasing power parities. "k" = thousand. The lines are loess curves. Data sources: Luxembourg Income Study; OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Income inequality Top 1%'s income share 22% US UK, Can Ger Kor Ire, Swi, Ja Por, It, Asl, NZ, Sp Swe, Fr, Nor, Fin Den, Nth 6 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Pretax income. Excludes capital gains. Data source: World Wealth and Income Database. "Asl" is Australia.
Wealth inequality Top 1%'s wealth share 37% US Ger, Aus, Nth Por Nor, Fr, UK Can Sp, It Asl, Bel, Fin 12 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Wealth = assets minus liabilities. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Gender pay inequality Gender pay gap 37% Kor Ja Por, Can, US, Fin Ger, Aus, Swi, UK Ire, Asl, Nth, Swe Sp, Fr Nor, NZ, Den, It 3 Bel 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Difference between median full-time male pay and median full-time female pay as a share of median male pay. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Family Children living in two-parent families It 89% Aus, Ja, Nth Sp, Asl Por, Ire, Swe Ger Can, Fr UK, US Den 66 50 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Share of all children. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Family Fertility rate 3 NZ, Ire, Fr 2 Swe, US, Asl, UK Nor, Den, Bel Nth, Fin, Can Swi, Ger, Aus, Ja It, Sp, Por, Kor 1 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Average number of children born per woman. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Work-family-leisure balance Work more than 50 hours per week 23% Kor Ja NZ, Asl, UK US Por Fr, Aus Swi, Sp Ger, Bel, Ire, Can, It Fin, Nor, Den Swe, Nth 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Share of employed persons whose usual hours of work per week are 50 hours or more. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Civic engagement Active member of a voluntary organization Can 18% NZ UK Swi Asl, US Nth, Nor Swe, Fin Fr Ger, It Kor Ja Sp 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Average for 8 types of organization: sports-recreation, religious, art-music-education, charitable, professional, labor union, environment, consumer. Question: “Now I am going to read off a list of voluntary organizations. For each organization, could you tell me whether you are an active member, an inactive member, or not a member of that type of organization?” Data source: World Values Survey, worldvaluessurvey.org. “Asl” is Australia.
Environment Carbon dioxide emissions per capita US, Asl 16 Can Kor, Nor Nth, Ja Ger, Fin, Bel Ire, NZ, Aus, UK, Den It Fr, Sp, Swi, Swe, Por 4 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Metric tons per person. Data source: World Bank. “Asl” is Australia; “Aus” is Austria.
Openness to other peoples Trade 90 Swi, Nor Den, Fin, Swe, others US, Asl, NZ Fr, Ja 73 Kor 60 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Scale of 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating greater freedom. The score is based on a country’s average tariff rate and the extensiveness of non-tariff barriers to imports. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: Heritage Foundation, heritage.org/index. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Openness to other peoples Immigration 28% Swi, Asl NZ Can Aus, Ire Swe, Bel Nor, Sp, US, Ger UK, Fr, Nth It Den, Por Fin Ja, Kor 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Foreign-born share of the population. Includes both legal and illegal immigrants. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Government debt Government net debt It, Ja Por 100% Bel Bel US US Sp, UK, Fr, Ire Aus Ger, Nth Can Swi, Den, NZ 0 Asl Swe -50 Fin 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Government financial liabilities minus government financial assets, measured as a share of GDP. Higher on the vertical axis indicates larger debt. Data source: OECD. Norway, which has a negative net debt of better than 200% of GDP, is omitted.
Happiness Suicides 29 Kor Ja Bel Fr, Fin, Aus, US NZ, Asl, Swi, Swe Can, Ire, Ger, Den Nor, Nth, Por 8 Sp, UK, It 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Suicides per 100,000 population. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Happiness Life satisfaction 8.5 Den Nor, Ire Swi Fin, Can, NZ UK, Swe, Nth US Ger Asl Aus, Por Fr, It, Ja Sp, Bel 6.5 Kor 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Question: "All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days?" Scale from 1 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied). The vertical axis doesn't begin at one. Data source: World Values Survey, via the World Database of Happiness, series 122F. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Tradeoffs? Conclusion: The Nordic countries have done as well as other rich democratic nations on nearly all outcomes, and better on some
Is the model's success generalizable?
Is the model's success generalizable? Are the Nordic countries uniquely able to avoid tradeoffs? In other words, is the Nordics' ability to use social democratic policies (and thereby achieve "expanded Rawlsian" outcomes) while avoiding tradeoffs nonreplicable?
Why nongeneralizable? Intelligence Work ethic, honesty, responsibility Trust Institutional coherence Small size and ethnic homogeneity Effective government Strong unions
Intelligence PISA scores, 15-year-olds 530 Ja Ca, Fin Kor Ire, Ger, Nth, Swi, NZ Den, Nor, Bel, Asl UK, Por, Swe, Fr Aus, Sp US, It 485 1980 90 2000 10 Year Average student score on PISA reading, math, and science tests. 15-year-olds. The PISA tests ask students to solve problems they haven’t seen before, to identify patterns that aren't obvious, and to make compelling written arguments. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Work ethic, honesty, responsibility "The uniquely strong norms associated with personal responsibility and work in the Nordics made these societies particularly well suited for avoiding the moral hazard of generous welfare systems."
Work ethic, honesty, responsibility "Wrongly claiming government benefits is never justified" 90% Nth Den UK, Swi It, Asl NZ Can, Ger, Ire US, Ja, Fin Bel, Sp Nor, Por, Swe, Aus Kor 30 Fr 1980 90 2000 10 Year Question: "Please tell me for each of the following actions whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between: claiming government benefits to which you are not entitled." The lines show the share responding "never be justified." The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data sources: World Values Survey and European Values Survey. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Work ethic, honesty, responsibility Hours worked per employed person 2.1k Por Ire US US NZ It, Ja, Can Sp, UK, Asl Fin, Aus Swe, Swi Bel Fr, Den Nor, Nth 1.4k Ger 1980 90 2000 10 Year Average annual hours worked per employed person. "k" = thousand. The vertical axis doesn't begin at zero. Data source: OECD. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Work ethic, honesty, responsibility Response to work disincentives: In the late 1980s, when sickness insurance benefits were very generous and easy to qualify for, Swedes missed work due to "sickness" an average of 25 days per year (Americans average 5 days)
Trust "Most people can be trusted" 75% Den, Nor Nth Swe, Fin NZ Asl, Swi Ger Can US Ire, Ja UK, Bel, It, Kor Fr, Sp 0 1980 90 2000 10 Year Share of adults who believe most people can be trusted. Question: "Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you need to be very careful in dealing with people?" Data source: World Values Survey. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
Trust Some conclude trust is key to good outcomes (Fukuyama 1995; Putnam 2000) But supportive evidence is thin (Kenworthy 2001)
Trust In any event, trust isn't set in stone
Trust "Most people can be trusted" Den 75% Swe US 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Share of adults who believe most people can be trusted. Data sources: World Values Survey; General Social Survey, sda.berkeley.edu, series trust; National Opinion Research Corp.
Trust The key determinant seems to be confidence/ trust in government
Trust Trust: Share of adults saying “most people can be trusted.” The other response option is “You can never be too careful when dealing with others.” Data source: World Values Survey. Confidence in government question: “Do you have confidence in the national government: yes or no?” Data source: Gallup World Poll, via the OECD. The correlation is +.76. “Asl” is Australia; “Aus” is Austria.
Trust United States Share of adults. Trust in government question: “Do you trust the government in Washington to do what is right always, most of the time, some of the time, or never?” Data source: Pew Research Center, “Public Trust in Government, 1958-2017,” using data from assorted public opinion surveys. Trust question: “Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can’t be too careful in life?” Data sources: General Social Survey, sda.berkeley.edu, series trust; National Opinion Research Corp. The correlation is +.85.
Trust How to increase trust in government? A big welfare state
Institutional coherence The Nordic countries' configuration of institutions and policies hasn't been more coherent than those of Germany, Japan, the US, and some others The Nordics' policies and institutions have changed over time There is no empirical association between coherence and economic success (Kenworthy 2006)
Small size and ethnic homogeneity These features likely helped the Nordic countries adopt social democratic policies But it isn't clear why they would contribute directly to successful outcomes
Effective government Nordic governments have been good at experimenting and adjusting ("The streets of Stockholm are awash with the blood of sacred cows") Yet they've made plenty of mistakes: excessive generosity in some social programs, Sweden's rapid reduction of capital controls coupled with austerity in the early 1990s, Denmark's failure to prevent a housing bubble pre-2008, and more
Strong unions Unionization 70% Fin, Swe, Den Bel, Nor It, Ire Can, Aus, UK NZ, Por, Nth, Ja Ger, Asl, Sp, Swi 10 US, Kor, Fr 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Union members as a share of all employees. Data source: Jelle Visser, "ICTWSS: Database on Institutional Characteristics of Trade Unions, Wage Setting, State Intervention, and Social Pacts," version 5.1, 2016, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies, series ud, ud_s.
Strong unions Unions, like small population size and ethnic homogeneity, increase the likelihood that a country will adopt social democratic policies The key question is whether, and if so to what extent, unions contribute directly to successful outcomes
Strong unions In the 1970s and 1980s, coordinated wage bargaining encouraged wage moderation and thereby contributed to healthy macroeconomic performance But in the era of independent central banks and restrictive monetary policy, wage coordination is no longer needed to achieve this outcome
Strong unions They're probably one of the reasons why the Nordic countries have had a moderate rather than large rise in income inequality Solidaristic wage policy compresses earnings Unions push against skyrocketing executive pay (top 1%)
Strong unions They contribute to economic security and shared prosperity by boosting wages Potential alternatives Wage extension practices (Nth, Ger) Extension laws (France) Tribunals (Australia)
Strong unions Collective bargaining coverage 98% Aus, Fr, Bel Fin, Swe Nth, Den It, Sp Nor, Por Asl, Ger Swi Ire UK, Can Ja, NZ 12 Kor, US 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Share of employees whose wages are determined by a collective agreement. Data source: Jelle Visser, "ICTWSS: Database on Institutional Characteristics of Trade Unions, Wage Setting, State Intervention, and Social Pacts," version 5.1, 2016, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies, series adjcov.
Strong unions If a country like the US with very weak unions and no mechanism to compensate adopts social democratic capitalism, wage growth (in the middle and below) will be slower and income inequality will be higher than in the Nordics Other outcomes should be similar
Have the Nordic countries moved away from the social democratic model?
Have the Nordics abandoned the model? Benefit reductions: stricter eligibility criteria, lower replacement rates, shorter duration, heavier tax clawbacks Changes to services: more user fees, more private supplements At the same time, some benefits and services have become more generous: parental/family leave, early education, child allowance
Have the Nordics abandoned the model? More risks are now covered ("old" plus "new") Some are covered less generously than before More targeting within universalism Enhanced emphasis on employment
Have the Nordics abandoned the model? Public transfer replacement rates 92% Aus, Nor Bel, Fin, Ger Swe, Ja It, Can Fr, Den Nth Ire Swi UK, US NZ, Asl 32 0 1960 70 80 90 2000 10 Year Average replacement rate for public insurance programs aimed at risks during childhood, working age, and old age. 2000-2010. Data source: Simon Birnbaum, Tommy Ferrarini, Kenneth Nelson, and Joakim Palme, The Generational Social Contract , Edward Elgar, 2017, using data from the Social Policy Indicators (SPIN) database. "Asl" is Australia; "Aus" is Austria.
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