September 28, 2017 Executive Briefing Survey Overview September - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service Quarterly Hogs and Pigs September 28, 2017 Executive Briefing

Survey Overview September Hogs and Pigs August 31 – September 15 Data Collection Period Sample Size 7,560 Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter; Primary Data Items Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter September 28, 2017

U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions Initial Previous Current Net Current Survey Item Estimate Revision Revision Revision Estimate (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) All Hogs +1,035 -100 +935 September 1, 2016 70,851 71,786 and Pigs +1.5% -0.1% +1.3% All Hogs -55 -250 -305 March 1, 2017 70,976 70,671 and Pigs -0.1% -0.4% -0.4% -262 -262 Pig Crop 31,400 No revision 31,138 -0.8% -0.8% All Hogs -220 -220 June 1, 2017 71,650 71,430 and Pigs -0.3% -0.3% September 28, 2017

U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1 Item 2016 2017 % PY 1,000 head All Hogs and Pigs 102 71,786 73,549 Breeding Hogs 6,016 6,087 101 Market Hogs 65,770 67,462 103 less than 50 lbs 21,215 21,568 102 50-119 lbs 19,271 19,626 102 120-179 lbs 13,600 14,129 104 180 lbs & over 11,683 12,139 104 Sows Farrowed 3,057 3,103 102 Pig Crop 32,331 33,048 102 number Pigs per Litter 10.58 10.65 101 1,000 head Sep-Nov Farrowings 3,046 3,070 101 Dec-Feb Farrowings 2,986 3,025 101 September 28, 2017

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs 2008 - 2017 75 73.5 73 71.4 71.8 71 Million head 69 67 65 63 61 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 September 1 June 1 September 28, 2017

September 1, 2017 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Head (1,000) and Percent of Previous Year Non-published States 3,189 103 Up No Change Inventory Down September 28, 2017

Trade Expectations Compared to NASS Estimates Percent of Previous Year NASS Trade Trade Inventory Items Estimate Average Range 101.7% – 103.3% All Hogs and Pigs 102.5% 102.5% 100.8% – 101.4% Breeding Hogs 101.2% 101.2% 101.7% – 103.5% Market Hogs 102.6% 102.6% Jun – Aug Pig Crop 100.3% – 103.0% 102.2% 101.8% Farrowing Intentions Sep – Nov 99.7% – 101.0% 100.8% 100.6% Dec – Feb 97.8% – 101.2% 101.3% 100.1% September 28, 2017

All Hogs and Pigs First Estimate Versus Final Estimate 2008 - 2017 75 73 71 69 Million head 67 65 63 61 59 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range September 28, 2017

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 2008-2017 3.2 3.10 3.1 3.07 3.02 Million head 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jun-Aug Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions September 28, 2017

Breeding Herd Inventory Disposition and Utilization Jun 1 Sep 1 Sow Estimate Slaughter Additions Estimate Utilization Year (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (Percent) 2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50 2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50 2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51 2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50 2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50 2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49 2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51 2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 51 2016 802 839 6,016 51 5,979 2017 828 846 6,087 51 6,069 September 28, 2017

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 2008-2017 10.80 10.65 10.58 10.50 10.55 10.20 Pigs per Litter 9.90 9.60 9.30 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jun-Aug Mar-May September 28, 2017

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation June - August 2017 11.00 10.70 10.65 10.40 10.50 10.00 Pigs per Litter 9.50 9.50 9.10 9.00 8.50 8.50 8.00 7.80 7.50 All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+ Size of Operation September 28, 2017

Canadian Imports by Quarter Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs 1,400 1,200 1,000 Thousand head 800 600 400 200 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Feeder Slaughter September 28, 2017

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers for Hogs and Corn $100 $8.50 $90 $7.50 $80 $6.50 Hogs $/cwt Corn $/bu $70 $5.50 $60 $4.50 $50 $3.50 $40 $2.50 $30 $1.50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hogs Corn September 28, 2017

Upcoming NASS Reports Release Date Report Title September 29 Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks October 2 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings October 12 Crop Production October 20 Milk Production and Cattle on Feed October 30 Agricultural Prices September 28, 2017

September 28, 2017

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At www.nass.usda.gov For Questions (202) 720-3570 (800) 727-9540 nass@nass.usda.gov September 28, 2017