San Antonio, Texas Housing Analysis Primary Work Elements - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Rental and For-Sale Housing Analysis Fall 2013 San Antonio, Texas

Housing Analysis Primary Work Elements Established a Primary Market Area - PMA (study area) • Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics • Conducted approximately a dozen stakeholder interviews • Surveyed over 34 rental properties the PMA • Evaluated PMA’s historical for-sale data on 913 units sold between • 8/2011 – 8/2013 & 141 available for-sale units Completed a housing gap analysis by tenure and income • Evaluated various “ other housing factors ” affecting the housing • market (i.e. community services, crime, drive times, etc.) Provided recommendations as to product types that should be • considered for development

Primary Market Area PMA – The smallest area from which most support will originate PMA Based Upon: - Interviews - Demographics - Drive-times - Mobility Patterns

Demographic Highlights San Antonio PMA - Population Trends  After a decline of 6.0% b/w 2000-2010, increased 2.8% b/w 2010- 2012  Projected 7.5% growth b/w 2012-2017, adding 5,347 people (exceeding 2000 total population) Population by Year 77,000 76,211 75,000 75,352 73,000 Population 71,000 70,864 69,000 68,931 67,000 65,000 63,000 2000 2010 2012 2017 Year

Demographic Highlights San Antonio PMA - Population Trends Population by Age  All age cohorts projected to 25,000 grow in total population 22,500 between 2012-17 20,000 17,500 Population 2010 15,000  Greatest population growth 2012 12,500 2017 10,000 among ages 65 to 74 (1,372 7,500 5,000 or 29.2%) 2,500 <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age Range Population by Age  Population shares by age 35.0% will decline among young, 30.0% increase among old 25.0% 2010 20.0% Share  Greatest population share 2012 15.0% 2017 growth among ages 65 to 74 10.0% (1,372 or 29.2%); Greatest 5.0% 0.0% declines among age 25 or <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age Range younger

Demographic Highlights San Antonio PMA - Household Trends  After a decline of 6.0% b/w 2000-2010, increased 2.8% b/w 2010- 2012  Projected 7.5% growth b/w 2012-2017, adding 5,347 people (exceeding 2000 total population) Households by Year 28,000 27,560 27,000 26,000 Households 25,000 25,094 24,715 24,000 24,233 23,000 22,000 2000 2010 2012 2017 Year

Demographic Highlights San Antonio PMA - Household Trends Household Heads by Age • Households (HH) by age 6,000 5,500 cohort are projected to 5,000 4,500 grow among all but the 25- 4,000 Households 2010 3,500 3,000 2012 34 age group 2,500 2017 2,000 1,500 • Greatest growth among 65- 1,000 500 0 74 and 55-64 <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age Range Household Heads by Age • The shares of HHs are 25.0% declining among younger 20.0% HHs (< age55), but 15.0% 2010 Share 2012 increasing among older 2017 10.0% HHs (55 to 74) 5.0% 0.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age Range

Demographic Highlights San Antonio PMA - Household IncomeTrends Households by Income 40.0% Shares of households 35.0% (HH) by income are 30.0% 25.0% 2010 projected to increase Share 20.0% 2012 2017 among higher income 15.0% 10.0% households ($60k+) 5.0% 0.0% <$20K $20K - $40K $40K - $60K $60K - $100K $100K+ Household Income Median Household Income $30,000 Median HH incomes are $29,500 $29,508 $29,000 Median Income projected to increase by $28,500 6.6% between 2012 and $28,000 $28,053 2017 $27,500 $27,687 $27,000 $26,500 2010 2012 2017 Year

Economic Highlights Bexar County - Economic Trends • County experienced slight slowdown in 2009, but has grown each year since 2003 • County gained 26,830 jobs (3.6%) since 2010 • County unemployment rate declined past three years • July 2013 rate of 6.3% is a five-year low (lower than state/nation) Unemployment Rates Total Employment

Housing Supply San Antonio PMA - Rental Housing Overview • Surveyed 34 projects w/ 4,677 units & only 45 vacancies • All segments 96.8%+ occupancy, no apparent weaknesses • All market-rate units 98.5% occupied & Tax Credit 99.7% occupied • Subsidized housing market is very strong: 99.9% occupancy • All 9 subsidized projects have wait lists, 6-24 months long • Housing Choice Voucher wait list: 28,500 households Projects Total Vacant Occupancy Project Type Surveyed Units Units Rate 16 2,192 30 98.6% Market-rate 1 249 8 96.8% Market-rate/Government-Subsidized Market-rate/Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 3 677 3 99.6% Tax Credit 4 528 2 99.6% Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 2 124 2 98.4% 8 907 0 100.0% Government-Subsidized 34 4,677 45 99.0% Total

Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments) Rental Housing Supply - Locations

Housing Supply - Rental San Antonio PMA – Market-rate Housing Market-rate Median Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant Gross Rent Studio 1.0 635 23.3% 13 2.0% $549 One-Bedroom 1.0 1,261 46.3% 22 1.7% $800 Two-Bedroom 1.0 137 5.0% 1 0.7% $869 Two-Bedroom 1.5 26 1.0% 0 0.0% $813 Two-Bedroom 2.0 538 19.8% 1 0.2% $1,947 Two-Bedroom 2.5 45 1.7% 2 4.4% $3,251 Three-Bedroom 2.0 81 3.0% 2 2.5% $3,005 Three-Bedroom 3.5 1 0.0% 0 0.0% $4,904 Total Market-rate 2,724 100.0% 41 1.5% -

Housing Supply - Rental San Antonio PMA – Tax Credit Housing Tax Credit, Non-Subsidized Median Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant Gross Rent Studio 1.0 93 15.6% 2 2.2% $600 One-Bedroom 1.0 198 33.1% 0 0.0% $660 Two-Bedroom 1.0 9 1.5% 0 0.0% $780 Two-Bedroom 2.0 189 31.6% 0 0.0% $841 Three-Bedroom 2.0 109 18.2% 0 0.0% $979 Total Tax Credit 598 100.0% 2 0.3% -

Housing Supply - Rental San Antonio PMA – Government-subsidized Housing Subsidized Tax Credit Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant One-Bedroom 1.0 146 48.5% 2 1.4% Two-Bedroom 1.0 88 29.2% 0 0.0% Two-Bedroom 2.0 26 8.6% 0 0.0% Three-Bedroom 2.0 41 13.6% 0 0.0% Total Subsidized Tax Credit 301 100.0% 2 0.7% Government-Subsidized Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant Studio 1.0 250 23.7% 0 0.0% One-Bedroom 1.0 642 60.9% 0 0.0% Two-Bedroom 1.0 121 11.5% 0 0.0% Two-Bedroom 2.0 32 3.0% 0 0.0% Three-Bedroom 1.0 1 0.1% 0 0.0% Three-Bedroom 2.0 8 0.8% 0 0.0% Total Subsidized 1,054 100.0% 0 0.0%

Housing Supply – For-sale Sales History by Year Built – (August 13, 2011 to August 13, 2013) Number Average Average Price Median Avg Days Year Built Sold Beds/Baths Sq. Feet Range Sales Price on Market 1939 or $2,600 - earlier 539 3/1.75 1,767 $2,600,000 $94,900 150 1940 to $14,100 - 1950 150 2/1.25 1,233 $385,000 $61,550 122 1951 to $15,500 - 1960 29 3/1.5 1,282 $261,000 $53,500 127 1961 to $20,500 - 1970 9 3/1.5 1,905 $810,000 $89,000 132 1971 to $43,000 - 1980 8 3/2.0 1,354 $135,000 $67,550 78 1981 to $21,900 - 1990 13 3/2.25 1,984 $725,000 $138,000 93 1991 to $36,000 - 2000/ 27 3/2.5 2,193 $997,000 $175,000 93 2001 to $28,157 - present 138 3/2.75 2,021 $1,085,000 $207,000 129 $2,600 - Total 913 3/2.0 1,716 $2,600,000 $99,900 138

Housing Supply – For-sale Sales History by Year Built • Nearly 60% of all homes sold in past 2 years was built pre-1940 • Notable share (15.1%) of new product sold in past 2-years Sales History by Year Built 59.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Share 30.0% 16.4% 20.0% 15.1% 10.0% 3.2% 3.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1939 or 1940 - 1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 to earlier present Year Built

Housing Supply – For-sale New Home Sales by Bedrooms – Year Built (2010 and later) Avg. Avg. Median Price Per Avg. Days Bedrooms Sold Baths Sq. Feet Price Range Price Sq. Ft. on Market $173,739 – Two-Br. 13 2.25 1,296 $599,000 $219,000 $168.98 145 $110,325 – Three-Br. 18 2.25 1,693 $649,000 $165,500 $97.76 102 $212,000 – Four-Br. 6 3.25 2,974 $390,000 $286,950 $96.49 91 $243,226 – Five-Br. 9 3.5 3,364 $732,500 $269,720 $80.18 79 $110,325 – - Total 46 2,075 $732,500 $224,333 $108.11 108

Housing Supply – For-sale

Housing Supply – For-sale San Antonio PMA - Available For-Sale Housing by Bedroom • PMA has 141 available homes for-sale (most 2-br and 3-br) • Median homes sales (asking) price of $139,000 • Average days on market of 117 (Three-bedroom shortest, 84 days) Homes Avg. Avg. Avg. Price Median Price Avg. Days Bedrooms Listed Baths Sq. Ft. Year Built Range Price Sq. Ft. on Market $15,000 - One-Br. 4 1.0 1,080 1969 $208,000 $107,500 $99.54 206 $19,900 - Two-Br. 52 1.25 1,346 1937 $799,000 $82,950 $61.63 137 $20,000 - Three-Br. 53 1.75 1,693 1935 $998,000 $99,900 $59.00 84 $72,000 - Four-Br. 22 2.75 2,761 1959 $899,000 $390,016 $141.26 102 $75,000 - Five-Br.+ 10 3.75 3,930 1972 $895,000 $519,495 $132.19 183 $15,000 – - Total 141 1,873 1943 $998,000 $139,000 $74.21 117