RETAIL TRADE AREA PERFORMANCE SPOKANE REGION 2010 2013 Prepared - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RETAIL TRADE AREA PERFORMANCE SPOKANE REGION 2010 – 2013 Prepared by Brett J. Lucas Business/Economic Geographer – Spokane, WA

Introduction  Retail sales within a community are the result of overall economic activity in the region  Retailing often serves as an indicator of community vigor and well being  Development of a local retailing sector addresses the economic development strategy of import substitution

Trade Area Analysis  Trade area analysis is an evaluation of a community retail market  The key to the evaluation is to determine weather a community’s retail sector is experiencing a net leakage or a net surplus of retail dollars

Trade Area Analysis  Eight different retail sectors evaluated  Building & Hardware  General Merchandise  Grocery  Auto & Gasoline  Apparel  Furniture  Lodging & Eating  Liquor

Trade Area Analysis  Retail Sales – City and State calendar year retail sales from the Department of Revenue  Trade Area Capture (TAC) – an estimate for the number of customer equivalents who purchase a specific retail category type in a given locality 𝑺𝑻 𝒋𝒌  TAC ij = 𝑺𝑻 𝒋𝒕 ∗ 𝑸𝑫𝑱 𝒌 𝑸𝑸𝑻 𝒕 𝑸𝑫𝑱 𝒕

Trade Area Analysis  Pull Factor (PF) – calculates what proportion of the consumers that a city draws are from outside its boundaries 𝑼𝑩𝑫 𝒋𝒌  PF = 𝑸𝑷𝑸 𝒌  A pull factor greater than 1.0 means that a city is attracting consumers outside the local population

Regional Population Growth Spokane & Spokane Valley Small Cities 250,000 12,000 10,000 200,000 8,000 150,000 6,000 100,000 4,000 2,000 50,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 Airway Heights Cheney Deer Park Spokane Spokane Valley Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood

Total Taxable Sales Spokane & Spokane Valley – Small Cities – 2010-2013 2010-2013 250,000,000 3,000,000,000 200,000,000 2,500,000,000 150,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 50,000,000 500,000,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 Airway Heights Cheney Deer Park Spokane Spokane Valley Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood

Total Taxable Sales Share Of Total Taxable Retail Annual Percent Change In Total Sales - 2010-2013 Taxable Retail Sales - 2010-2013 100% 80.0% 60.0% 90% 40.0% 80% 20.0% 70% 0.0% 60% -20.0% 50% -40.0% 40% -60.0% 30% -80.0% 20% -100.0% 10% -120.0% 0% -140.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Airway Heights Cheney Deer Park Airway Heights Cheney Deer Park Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood Spokane Spokane Valley Spokane Spokane Valley

Building & Hardware Includes: lumber, building materials, paint, glass, wallpaper, nursery stock, and lawn/garden supplies

Building & Hardware Retail Surplus/Leakage - 2013 Taxable Retail Sales - 2010-2013 Building-Hardware Building-Hardware $45,000,000 $350,000,000 $40,000,000 $300,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $250,000,000 SV $25,000,000 S MW $200,000,000 $20,000,000 ML $15,000,000 LL $150,000,000 DP $10,000,000 C $100,000,000 $5,000,000 AH $- $50,000,000 $(5,000,000) $- $(10,000,000) AH C DP LL ML MW S SV 2010 2011 2012 2013

Building & Hardware Trade Area Capture - 2010-2013 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Building-Hardware Building-Hardware 1,200,000 25.00 1,000,000 20.00 SV SV 800,000 S S 15.00 MW MW ML ML 600,000 LL LL 10.00 DP DP 400,000 C C AH AH 5.00 200,000 - 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013

Building & Hardware Market Share - 2013 Potential Market Share - 2013 Building-Hardware Building-Hardware 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 4% AH AH 27% C C 33% DP DP LL LL ML ML MW MW S S 62% SV SV 63%

Building & Hardware – TAC

Building & Hardware – PF

General Merchandise Stores Includes: dry goods, apparel and accessories, home furnishings, small wares, hardware and food

General Merchandise Taxable Retail Sales - 2010-2013 Retail Surplus/Leakage - 2013 General Merchandise General Merchandise $600,000,000 $100,000,000 $500,000,000 $50,000,000 SV $400,000,000 $- S MW ML $300,000,000 $(50,000,000) LL DP $200,000,000 $(100,000,000) C AH $100,000,000 $(150,000,000) $- $(200,000,000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 AH C DP LL ML MW S SV

General Merchandise Trade Area Capture - 2010-2013 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 General Merchandise General Merchandise 1,200,000 25.00 1,000,000 20.00 SV SV 800,000 S S 15.00 MW MW ML ML 600,000 LL LL 10.00 DP DP 400,000 C C AH AH 5.00 200,000 - 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013

General Merchandise Market Share - 2013 Potential Market Share - 2013 General Merchandise General Merchandise 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 6% 4% AH AH 27% C C 40% DP DP LL LL ML ML MW MW S S 52% SV SV 63%

General Merchandise – TAC

General Merchandise – PF

Grocery/Food Stores Includes: grocery stores, meat & fish markets, fruit & vegetable stores, confectionary stores, dairy retail, bakeries, coffee/tea stores, and health food

Grocery Taxable Retail Sales - 2010-2013 Retail Surplus/Leakage - 2013 Grocery Grocery $250,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $200,000,000 $40,000,000 SV S $150,000,000 MW $30,000,000 ML LL $20,000,000 $100,000,000 DP C $10,000,000 A $50,000,000 $- $- $(10,000,000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 AH C DP LL ML MW S SV

Grocery Trade Area Capture - 2010-2013 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Grocery Grocery 800,000 14.00 700,000 12.00 600,000 10.00 SV SV S S 500,000 MW MW 8.00 ML ML 400,000 LL LL 6.00 300,000 DP DP C C 4.00 200,000 AH AH 2.00 100,000 - 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013

Grocery Market Share - 2013 Potential Market Share - 2013 Grocery Grocery 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% 4% 5% 21% AH AH 27% C C DP DP LL LL ML ML MW MW S S SV SV 63% 69%

Grocery – TAC

Grocery – PF

Automotive Dealers & Gasoline Service Stations Includes: dealers selling new and used automobiles, boats, RV’s, trailers, motorcycles, parts & accessories, and gasoline stations

Auto & Gasoline Taxable Retail Sales - 2010-2013 Retail Surplus/Leakage - 2013 Auto-Gasoline Auto-Gasoline $800,000,000 $150,000,000 $700,000,000 $100,000,000 $600,000,000 $50,000,000 SV S $500,000,000 $- MW ML $400,000,000 $(50,000,000) LL $300,000,000 DP $(100,000,000) C $200,000,000 A $(150,000,000) $100,000,000 $(200,000,000) $- $(250,000,000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 AH C DP LL ML MW S SV

Auto & Gasoline Trade Area Capture - 2010-2013 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Auto-Gasoline Auto-Gasoline 900,000 25.00 800,000 20.00 700,000 SV SV 600,000 S S 15.00 MW MW 500,000 ML ML 400,000 LL LL 10.00 DP DP 300,000 C C AH AH 200,000 5.00 100,000 - 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013

Auto & Gasoline Market Share - 2013 Potential Market Share - 2013 Auto-Gasoline Auto-Gasoline 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% 4% 7% 0% AH AH 27% C C DP DP 44% LL LL ML ML MW MW S S 44% SV SV 63%

Auto & Gasoline – TAC

Auto & Gasoline – PF

Apparel & Accessory Stores Includes: new clothing, shoes, hats undergarments, and related items for personal wear

Apparel Taxable Retail Sales - 2010-2013 Retail Surplus/Leakage - 2013 Apparel Apparel $300,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $250,000,000 $80,000,000 SV $200,000,000 S MW $60,000,000 ML $150,000,000 LL $40,000,000 DP $100,000,000 C $20,000,000 A $50,000,000 $- $- $(20,000,000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 AH C DP LL ML MW S SV

Apparel Trade Area Capture - 2010-2013 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Apparel Apparel 1,000,000 8.00 900,000 7.00 800,000 6.00 SV SV 700,000 S S 5.00 600,000 MW MW ML ML 500,000 4.00 LL LL 400,000 3.00 DP DP C C 300,000 2.00 AH AH 200,000 1.00 100,000 - 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013

Apparel Market Share - 2013 Potential Market Share - 2013 Apparel Apparel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% AH AH 27% C C 39% DP DP LL LL ML ML MW MW 61% S S SV SV 63%

Apparel – TAC

Apparel – PF

Home Furniture, Furnishings, and Equipment Stores Includes: furniture, floor coverings, draperies, glass/chinaware, appliances, consumer electronics, computer software, and music stores

Furniture Taxable Retail Sales - 2010-2013 Retail Surplus/Leakage - 2013 Furniture Furniture $350,000,000 $5,000,000 $300,000,000 $- $250,000,000 SV S $(5,000,000) MW $200,000,000 ML LL $150,000,000 $(10,000,000) DP C $100,000,000 AH $(15,000,000) $50,000,000 $- $(20,000,000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 AH C DP LL ML MW S SV