RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016
RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 AGENDA − Economy and retail environment Doug Murray − Business overview Doug Murray − Review of the period Doug Murray − Financial review Anthony Thunström − TFG Financial Services Jane Fisher − Growth Doug Murray − Outlook Doug Murray 2 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 1 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
ECONOMY AND RETAIL ENVIRONMENT THE ECONOMY AND RETAIL ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL ECONOMY − Outlook remains subdued • Brexit – impact on UK and Europe • US elections and economy • Chinese economy UK ECONOMY − Brexit uncertainties − Retail numbers weak DOMESTIC ECONOMY − Outlook for consumer spending remains muted – impact of: • Affordability regulations • Reduced credit lending • Unemployment • Low consumer confidence − Impact of political uncertainty and corruption on the South African economy is of deep concern − Threat of ratings downgrade remains a risk − Rand stronger but remains volatile − Uncertainty around future interest rate outlook − Inflation outlook • 6,1% at end September 2016 vs 4,6% at end September 2015 • Potentially above target range until early 2017 − GDP growth outlook for 2016 at 0,3% (BER) 4 • Outlook for 2017 at 1,1% (BER) TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 2 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
TRADING ENVIRONMENT 5 Source of graphs: BER Economic Snapshot October 2016 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 TRADING ENVIRONMENT 6 Source of graphs: BER Economic Snapshot October 2016 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 3 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
BUSINESS OVERVIEW BUSINESS OVERVIEW TFG GROUP − Offers prominent lifestyle brands to consumers across the majority of LSM groups, from value to upper market − Comprises 22 brands • Towards the end of the 2016 financial year, we commenced the roll-out of the rebranding of Fashion Express to The FIX which is continuing in the 2017 financial year • During the 2017 financial year, we rebranded DonnaClaire to Donna • We continue to benefit from and leverage our existing infrastructure and leading IT systems ensuring that new brands can be added with minimal capital outlay and investment − Broad product offering across various merchandise categories: 8 • Clothing, jewellery, homeware & furniture, cellphones and cosmetics TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 4 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
DONNA REBRANDING 9 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 THE FIX REBRANDING 10 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 5 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
FOOTPRINT : TFG GROUP 3 221 OUTLETS IN 34 COUNTRIES: − TFG Africa: 8 countries − TFG International: 26 countries • South Africa: 2 341 outlets • Phase Eight: 569 outlets • Rest of Africa: 185 outlets in 7 countries • Whistles: 126 outlets 11 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 FOOTPRINT : TFG AFRICA South Rest of Total Africa Africa @home 83 6 89 @homelivingspace 2 29 31 American Swiss 217 23 240 Charles & Keith 12 - 12 Colette 8 - 8 Donna 97 4 101 Duesouth 57 5 62 Exact 260 17 277 Fabiani 24 - 24 Foschini 272 22 294 G-Star Raw 11 - 11 hi 6 - 6 Markham 303 25 328 Mat & May 26 - 26 Next 2 - 2 SODA Bloc 21 - 21 sportscene 246 20 266 Sterns 164 20 184 The FIX 217 18 235 Totalsports 286 23 309 12 Total 2 341 185 2 526 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 6 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
FOOTPRINT: TFG INTERNATIONAL Stores Concessions Total outlets UK & Ireland Netherlands 340 495 7 7 14 14 155 - - USA Germany Australia Norway 2 41 43 - 16 16 1 - 1 Switzerland Hong Kong Malaysia 30 41 2 5 1 1 11 3 - Bahrain Mexico Latvia 1 1 13 13 1 1 - - - Kuwait Saudi Arabia Italy - 2 2 - 8 8 - 4 4 United Arab Qatar Japan - 1 1 - 8 8 - 1 1 Emirates Singapore Estonia France 6 6 1 1 2 2 - - - Sweden Belgium Macau* 1 8 9 - 4 4 1 - 1 10 10 - Spain* 13 * New countries for 2017 financial year TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 TURNOVER BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY TFG TFG TFG TFG % same GROUP AFRICA GROUP AFRICA % % store Sept Sept Sept Sept change change growth Retail turnover by 2016 2016 2015 2015 TFG TFG TFG merchandise category (Rm) (Rm) (Rm) (Rm) GROUP AFRICA AFRICA Clothing 8 639,9 6 084,3 7 222,7 5 552,6 19,6 9,6 1,6 Jewellery 687,3 687,3 660,9 660,9 4,0 4,0 0,3 Cellphones 890,8 890,8 740,5 740,5 20,3 20,3 15,2 Homeware & furniture 670,3 670,3 624,9 624,9 7,3 7,3 (4,6) 527,4 527,4 512,2 512,2 3,0 3,0 Cosmetics (0,8) Total 11 415,7 8 860,1 9 761,2 8 091,1 16,9 9,5 2,1 Cash sales 7 006,8 4 451,2 5 411,7 3 741,6 29,5 19,0 Credit sales 4 408,9 4 408,9 4 349,5 4 349,5 1,4 1,4 11 415,7 8 860,1 9 761,2 8 091,1 16,9 9,5 Total − Cash sales • Represent 61,4% (TFG Africa: 50,2%) of total sales (Sept 2015: TFG Group 55,4%, TFG Africa: 46,2%) • Strong growth at 29,5% (TFG Africa: 19,0%) − Credit sales • Growth of 1,4% 14 • Severely impacted by the reduction in new accounts as a result of the Affordability Regulations TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 7 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
TURNOVER: MERCHANDISE CATEGORY CONTRIBUTION 4,6% 5,9% Cosmetics Homeware & furniture Clothing & footwear - 7,8% Sport 18,5% Cellphones 6,0% Jewellery Clothing & footwear – 75,7% International division Clothing & footwear - 22,4% Clothing and footwear Value 10,4% Clothing & footwear – Fashion 24,4% 15 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 TURNOVER: GEOGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION Sept 2016 Sept 2015 TFG TFG International International 17,1% 22,4% TFG Africa TFG Africa 77,6% 82,9% 16 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 8 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
TURNOVER: CASH VS CREDIT Sept 2016 Sept 2015 Credit 38,6% Credit 44,6% Cash Cash 61,4% 55,4% 17 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 CASH VS CREDIT TURNOVER GROWTH (TFG AFRICA) EXCLUDING PHASE EIGHT 9,5% 10,8% 12,3% 11,6% 25% 20% 20,6% 19,0% Growth in turnover (%) 18,4% 15% 15,8% 10% 6,8% 5% 5,9% 5,1% 1,4% 0% April 2016 - Sept 2016 April 2015 - Sept 2015 Oct 2015 - March 2016 FY 2016 Total turnover growth Growth in cash turnover Growth in credit turnover 18 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 9 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
REVIEW OF THE PERIOD REVIEW OF THE PERIOD CHANGES IN GROUP STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD • Phase Eight: 6 months’ trading included in both current and prior year (acquired January 2015) • Whistles: 6 months’ trading included in current year (acquired March 2016) CHANGES IN E-COMMERCE • Launched online selling of Foschini cosmetics, Markham and Fabiani brands CHANGES IN INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT • Prior year: repo rate increases in July 2015 (25 bps), November 2015 (25 bps), January 2016 (50bps) and March 2016 (25bps) • Current period: no changes 20 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 10 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
SEPTEMBER 2016: SALIENT FEATURES Retail turnover R11,4 bn Retail turnover growth +16,9% Gross margin 49,6% Net bad debt / closing debtors’ book 14,0% Debt / equity - recourse 53,2% Debt / equity - total 67,6% 21 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2016: SALIENT FEATURES CONTINUED Headline earnings growth +8,1% HEPS (cents) 496,8 HEPS growth +5,7% Interim dividend (cents per share) 320,0 Growth in interim distribution +4,6% − Interim headline earnings above R1 billion for the first time 22 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 11 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
FINANCIAL REVIEW FINANCIAL REVIEW: INCOME STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTS TFG TFG TFG TFG % % GROUP AFRICA GROUP AFRICA change change Sept Sept Sept Sept TFG TFG 2016 2016 2015 2015 GROUP AFRICA Revenue (Rm) 12 854,9 10 299,3 11 082,6 9 412,5 16,0 9,4 Retail turnover (Rm) 11 415,7 8 860,1 9 761,2 8 091,1 16,9 9,5 Gross margin (%) 49,6 45,5 49,1 46,1 Total trading expenses (Rm) 5 369,5 4 007,7 4 511,9 3 654,7 19,0 9,7 Net bad debt (Rm) 485,6 485,6 506,7 506,7 (4,2) (4,2) Operating margin (%) 15,1 16,5 16,4 17,2 HEPS (cents) 496,8 470,2 5,7 24 TFG RESULTS PRESENTATION FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 12 TFG | SEPTEMBER 2016 RESULTS PRESENTATION
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