Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Research Project : Development of decision support system for optimal agricultural production under global environment changes S. Ninomiya (University of Tokyo) The University of Tokyo National Agriculture and Food Research Organization National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences Ishikawa Prefectural University Toyama Prefecture Fukui Prefecture 1
Background • Food shortage crisis – Population increase by 200,000 per day – Usage shift from food to bio-fuel – Meat consumption increase – Unstable and short water supply – Land shortage – Damage by global warming and frequent extreme whether conditions • Needs for stable and profitable productivity against global warming – High productivity – Profit performance – Sustainability • Low impact on environment, low emission • Sustainable resource management – Food safety
Objectives To Develop Decision support system for optimal agricultural production under global environment changes • In order to realize robust, stable and profitable agriculture under long- term global warming and frequent extreme weather conditions • The system realizes – Optimal crop management, considering profitability – Optimal water management in an area of a watershed • Expected outcomes of studies – Stable food supply – Stable farm profitability – Optimal usage of water resource – Sustainable agriculture
Former related studies by the group • Modeling – High resolution grid data generation model – Rice yield simulator – Heat and water transfer model • Efficient field monitoring systems – Filedserver, Fieldrouter, Agriserver, eKakashi • Framework – Ground data database – Data integration framework - Metbroker
Rice yield simulator • No considerations on soil and water conditions • Terribly low resolution of prediction • No guidance for optimal cropping
Outline of research Climatic downscaling data Weather model for high resolution data High resolution data generation for local area Local climatic data Soil condition and resource availability Crop modeling Soil and water modeling Prediction of yield and quality Estimation of water resource and soil Crop water demand condition n o Monitoring data for i t a z assimilation and i m e Integration of models parameter tuning t s y Easy-to-use user interface s Evaluation of system by ground monitoring Development of monitoring system Decision support system for optimal cropping Farm base optimal cropping for productivity and profitability Guideline for local water management Evaluation at test beds
Weather model for locally useful high resolution data Daily and hourly high resolution data Uncertainty evaluation based on ・ Seasonal prediction multiple climatic scenarios ・ Past to future ・ Reanalysis data Y1980-y2030 ・ Climatic Senario data （ CMIP 5 ） • Temperature • Rainfall Statistical and dynamic downscaling • Wind speed of climatic and weather data • Solar rad. • Snow fall • Humidity • long-wave rad. DIAS database DIAS database High resolution data Crop model SW model Crop model SW model
Crop model to consider quality Crop model to consider quality Ground data for Climatic data Crop growth model Crop growth model tuning and evaluation Biomass growth and yield formation Phenological development Photosynthesis Rice Development Sugar (Su) DVI ・ Crop growth Maintenance Wheat and barley respiration Root Root growth Spikelet number ・ Yield and quality Storage starch Differentiation Vegetative Grain Accumulation tissue growth growth Spikelet # Prediction of quality degrading Storage starch (ST) ・ Prediction of crop damage Degeneration Translocation Vegetative Tissues Grain Yield (V) (Y) Attainable Yield Plant N dynamics Soil/water model Spikelet sterility Translocation Translocation For water supply and stem N leaf N Grain N soil moisture LAI development Senescence Senescence dead N Grain N Expansion accumulation stem N leaf N accumulation accumulation LAI Senescence soil N uptake Double cropping optimization against Double cropping optimization against global warming global warming ・ Optimal cropping timing, Optimal variety ・ Optimal cropping timing, Optimal variety ・ Risk management, optimal land productivity ・ Risk management, optimal land productivity ・ Optimal resource utilization ・ Optimal resource utilization 食糧自給率向上のための水田の高度利用 食糧自給率向上のための水田の高度利用 Double cropping of rice and wheat
Soil and water modeling for local circulation Soil and water modeling for local circulation material cycle modeling under climatic change Amount and quality change of local water resource Water availability Water demand Local water cycle and usage Nutrient salt cycle pattern Chemical impact Soil moisture Crop production Temperature, nutrition Cropping system change Land use change 40 Temperature( ℃ ) 10cm 30 ) Temperature(℃ 20 10 Crop model 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 -10 ・ Demand prediction and optimal water management and usage plan ・ Demand prediction and optimal water management and usage plan ・ Combination with crop model to make more accuracy ・ Combination with crop model to make more accuracy ・ Optimal reduction of enviromental impact by material cycle model ・ Optimal reduction of enviromental impact by material cycle model
Evaluation of system by ground monitoring Evaluation of system by ground monitoring Ground monitoring data Models Ground monitoring data Models Data assimilation Parameter tuning Evaluation Evaluation Development of monitoring Development of monitoring systems operational under poor systems operational under poor network and power infrastructure network and power infrastructure Evaluation of system based on Evaluation of system based on productivity and profit performance productivity and profit performance
DSS for optimal crop production DSS for optimal crop production DSS for OCP Local climatic model Data exchange framework Crop model DIAS Database Downscaling data Soil and Water Models Ground data Ground monitoring Local climatic data Tools for optimal cropping Tools for optimal local water management User interface • Farm base optimal cropping for productivity and profitability – Optimal amount and timing of fertilizer and irrigation, selection cropping period and variety, double cropping system • Guideline for local water management
Test beds in three prefectures in Hokuriku • Test beds – Toyama, Ishikawa and Fukui Prefectures – Tedorigawa watershed • Reasons – Urgency • Main production area for high quality rice • Rice quality is recently degrading because of high temperature • Much reduction snowfall which is resource of paddy water in summer, is expected • Optimal secondary crop may shift from barley to wheat because of global warming – Advantages for model development and evalution • Various topology and local climatic conditions • One of the most important rice production area in Japan • Double cropping is popular • Water resource amount and water quality, soil conditions have been surveyed in detail by former research projects
Expected outcomes of project • Generation of high resolution climatic data useful for site- specific agriculture • Crop model to consider quality • Mutual combination of crop model and soil/water model – Soil condition and water supply ability to contribute for crop model – Crop water demand to optimize water management • Optimal cropping timing and system can be suggested – Stable and profitable robust production even under global warming and unstable condition – Stable supply and price of agro products • System concept will not depend on local conditions and be usable in other places
Thank you very much 14
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