RESEARCH BRIEF The overall mission of the OFP is: “To develop and oversee the implementation of labour market driven approaches to skills and employability services for individuals, which reflect the needs of employers. ” 1. Initial research conducted in 2014 by Prof. Alan McGregor (TERU): • To identify Fife’s Business Base • To analyse Fife’s Labour Market Supply • To model Fife’s Future Workforce Needs • To develop Workforce Modelling system for future use 2. 2015 update has involved: • Analysis of statistical data • Review of published labour market intelligence (LMI) – at sectoral and national level • Employer consultations
ANALYSIS OF FIFE’S EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS BASE 1. Fife’s main employment sectors are health (including social care and residential care); manufacturing; and retail 2. Fife is under-represented in professional, scientific and technical services; and business administration and support services 3. Fife’s employment projected to increase by 6,300 jobs by 2022 By sector, growth greatest in • Health, residential and social care, +3,200 jobs • Information and communication, +1,000 jobs • Construction, +800 jobs By occupation, growth greatest in: • Professional, +5,000 jobs • Caring, leisure and other services, +5,000 jobs • Associate professional and technical, +2,700 jobs
ANALYSIS OF FIFE’S EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS BASE 4. Again by occupation: While net declines projected in administrative and • secretarial; skilled trades; and plant, process and machine operatives…. …these occupations will continue to demand future workers • 5. From analysis, nothing to indicate change in Fife’s key sectors from 2014 workforce modelling: Construction and civil engineering Energy and engineering/manufacturing Food and drink Health and care ICT and technology Tourism and hospitality
ANALYSIS OF FIFE’S LABOUR SUPPLY 1. Population analysis suggests Fife in relatively strong position to respond to future labour market changes 2. Fife’s population is projected to grow above Scottish average (7% to 4%) by 2022 However, working age population projected to decline by 2,400 • 3. Fife has net in-migration: Averaging over 1,300 per annum over last 5 years • Migrants from overseas averaging 1,800 per year • 4. 2011 Census Travel to Work data now released 88% of Fife’s jobs are held by Fife residents • But Fife has net commuting outflow of 18,300 people – many of • whom will be highly skilled individuals 5. Qualifications and occupational level of Fife’s working age population is similar to Scotland’s
ANALYSIS OF FIFE’S LABOUR MARKET ENTRANTS 1. Statistical evidence shows: Fife’s schools could do better in increasing pupil attainment percentages • But strong improvement in positive School Leaver Destination results • 2. Fife College has central role to play in developing Fife’s future workforce School leaver destination statistics show 35% into FE, Scotland 26% • 58% of Fife’s school leavers who enter HE or FE enrol with Fife College • 3. Fife College’s curriculum in terms of number of enrolments largely aligns with Fife’s key sectors Higher FE enrolments in health; engineering; and ICT relative to • Scotland But low numbers enrolling in catering, food, leisure services and tourism • 4. For Modern Apprenticeship starts in 2013-14, Fife compared to Scotland had proportionately: More starts in construction; transport and logistics; and energy and • engineering Fewer starts in hospitality and tourism; and health, social care and sport •
SECTOR ANALYSIS GENERATED FIFE WORKFORCE PLANNING MATRIX
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS BY SECTOR Maintain construction MA numbers Ensure college capacity to increase enrolments if construction industry picks up as projected Construction and civil Employability providers to help re-engage unemployed skilled tradesmen engineering Develop mechanisms to consult with Fife’s construction employers on a regular basis following end of Fife Construction Forum Sector requires continued college investment in engineering and related subject areas Significant increase in engineering MAs needed to meet future demands Energy and engineering/ Pathways should be established to up-skill existing workforce to higher skilled positions manufacturing Continue to develop links between industry and education to raise awareness of and interest in sector, while also ensuring future supply of hand and technical skills Raise awareness of the diversity of opportunities in the food and drink sector Food and Ensure flow of engineers into food and drink manufacturing – e.g. through MAs drink For lower-skilled positions, need core skills along with food hygiene and basic machinery skills Maintain health and social care MAs and college provision Health and Build relationship with NHS Fife to help support workforce planning process care Gain stronger understanding of residential care sector within Fife and its employment and skills demands Increase Fife College places to help train future programme/software designers ICT and Ensure college provision responds to future ICT trends – including demand for Big Data analysts technology Consider whether Fife should aim to become ‘Centre of Excellence’ for ICT and software skills Fife Skills Partners to work more closely with Dundee partners to understand the plan for future demands from the tourism workforce Build awareness of the tourism sector and its career opportunities within schools and with young people’s influencers. This in turn will hopefully attract more enrolments onto Fife College (and Dundee and Angus Tourism and College) catering, food, leisure services and tourism courses hospitality Develop skills pathways to enable tourism workforce to progress into higher skilled jobs in the sector (eg. Supervisory, managerial and chef positions) This will support workforce retention ambitions. Align employability activities to help meet lower skilled tourism vacancies.
RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Employer Engagement Employer e-surveys and focus groups not seen to be effective • mechanisms in longer term Alternative approach should be tested and proposal is that Fife • public sector partners record and share employment and skills intelligence from employers when discussed Requires a simple data recording and sharing protocol • 2. Aligning with Regional Skills Assessment Fife is in privileged position of having only single local authority RSA • Given that RSA and this Workforce Modelling exercise have similar • aims, proposal is: − Partnership identifies the best elements of Workforce Modelling and feed these back to SDS to influence future RSA − Where SDS not in a position to respond, then local partners can decide whether additional, local research is required
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