Regional Solar Dialog CLEER/NREL Workshop 2/21/2019 Glenwood Springs, CO
Outline • Update on the 70/70/30 goals • Looking to the 20s in the 20s • Local Solution drivers
Update on Holy Cross Energy 70/70/30 Program Goals
Update on 70/70/30 Resource planning assumptions • Bulk Wind = ~100MW wind PPA, scheduled for 2021 delivery (Reviewing RFP bids for contracting in mid-2019) • Bulk Solar = ~25MW solar PPA, expected for 2022 delivery • Distribution System = ~25MW solar through 2030 @ 5MW/3- years (includes Gypsum and Woody Creek 5MW projects, in permitting) • Behind-the-Meter = ~24MW solar through 2030 @ 2MW/year (HCE currently has about 33MW of active distributed generation capability installed at ~ 1300 member locations) These assumptions are guiding our decisions with respect to resource selection and program development
CO2 Emissions Projection
RE % Projection RE% forecast by 2030 ~ 75%
The 20s in the 20s
Driving the final wedge… During the 2020s installed renewable resources will be serving above 70% of Holy Cross’ annual energy supply This causes many hours where available renewable energy production is greater than electric use by customers This “oversupply” creates lost opportunity • It is a lost chance to generate electricity from renewable resources and to supply our customers from renewable energy
Changing the optimization question HCE expects that getting the last available 20% of thermal/combustion resources out of the power supply will be less about generation than it will need to focus on load The oversupply opportunity of renewables creates economic incentives to meet energy demand through greater flexibility from the load side, rather than installing more and more renewable generating resources • Storage is just one form of demand flexibility, among many additional options
Local Solution Drivers
Local Solution Drivers In achieving the last 20% renewable supply, load becomes a key variable that can be matched to the supply opportunity • New utility programs will give our members an incentive to help • New products and rates will create avenues to achieve savings Also – as electric supply becomes more renewable, the environmental benefits of electrification increase • Electric Vehicles avoid combustion and can create flexible load for the utility through time-of-use rates and dispatchable charging options • Creates a win/win scenario in taking full advantage of available renewable energy
Why Consumer Programs? Consumer programs can provide multiple flexibility benefits to HCE • Capacity management • Energy management • Energy e ffj ciency • Beneficial electrification Programs must be designed in parallel with new rates and incentives to achieve desired outcomes in a cost-e fg ective (and equitable) way
Compensation for New Programs Avoided costs form foundation for rebates/incentives • Capacity – tie to resource capabilities, seek measurable performance • E ffj ciency benefits tied to installation are not “pay for performance” but are based on one-time initial installation rebates, with validation • Pay-for-performance is based on ongoing operational participation and response in HCE programs • Energy – tie to expected production or reduction
Example: Demand Response Program Payment Valuation Demand Response Program Participation Options Member Control Option Response HCE Control Option Response Highest value/payment Measured/metered Response Next-highest value/payment Statistical, Lower value/payment Behavioral, No member direct payment
Coop Ability and Incentives Our members are our owners, we are a non-profit business We do not generate earnings based on capital investment We expect incentives for our members’ demand/energy programs to be based on the avoided costs of alternatives Rates and program development to complement renewable integration will be an important focus in the coming years Regional partners like CLEER and research institutions like NREL will be key collaborators in our development of the capability to achieve the last 20%
END
Recommend
More recommend
