Recreational Marijuana Tax Revenue Forecast Experience from Colorado - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Recreational Marijuana Tax Revenue Forecast – Experience from Colorado VERMONT SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE L A R S O N S I L B A U G H S E N I O R E C O N O M I S T C O L O R A D O L E G I S L A T I V E C O U N C I L J A N U A R Y 2 0 , 2 0 1 6 L A R S O N . S I L B A U G H @ S T A T E . C O . U S 3 0 3 - 8 6 6 - 4 7 2 0 W W W . C O L O R A D O . G O V / L C S

Colorado Tax Structure Medical Retail Marijuana Marijuana   State Sales Tax (2.9%)  Excise Tax (15.0%)  Special Sales Tax (10.0%)

Estimating Demand  Total market marijuana = price x consumption  Prices = based on medical marijuana  Total consumption = MJ users x avg. annual consumption  Visitor consumption

Estimating Demand  State Population  Usage rate from federal survey  SAMSHA – Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Survey on Drug Use and Health  About 500,000 MJ users

Estimating Demand  Average annual usage  survey data – 6.5 ounces per year  We assumed 3.5 ounces per year

Estimating Demand  Visitor consumption  Colorado visitors x national usage rate x $20 (1 gram)  Visitors to Amsterdam purchased between $20 and $40 per visit

Supply of Marijuana Total Marijuana Demand Regulated Grow Gray Black Medical Retail your Market Market Marijuana Marijuana own Marijuana Supply Channels

Supply of Marijuana Other Legal Regulated Adult Use Marijuana Total Marijuana Demand Marijuana Market Market Grow Medical your Regulated Marijuana Gray Black own Retail = Market Market = Marijuana 114,600 1.4% of Users Users Marijuana Supply Channels

Initial Estimate Recreational Medical  $67.0 Million Marijuana Marijuana   State Sales Tax (2.9%) $27.5 million Excise Tax (15.0%) $39.5 million Special Sales Tax (10.0%)

Initial Estimate Initial Estimate for Recreational Medical  $67.0 Million FY 2014-15, Summer 2013 Marijuana Marijuana   State Sales Tax (2.9%) $67.0 Million Actual FY 2014-15 $27.5 million Excise Tax (15.0%) Collections $39.5 million Special Sales Tax (10.0%) $66.1 Million

Revenue Estimates FY 2014-15 Retail Marijuana Revenue Estimates Over Time Source: Colorado Legislative Council, CO Department of Revenue, Colorado Center on Law and Policy, Colorado Futures

Monthly Tax Collections Source: CO Department of Revenue

Sales by County – January 2014 Source: CO Department of Revenue, map produced by Legislative Council Staff

Sales by County – July 2015 Source: CO Department of Revenue, map produced by Legislative Council Staff

Medical vs. Recreational Marijuana Sales Source: CO Department of Revenue

Questions