Q2 2014 Earnings Conference Call August 8, 2014 CONFIDENTIAL
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements To the extent any statements made in this presentation contain information that is not historical, these statements are forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, as applicable, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and under Canadian securities law (collectively “forward -looking statements”) . Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of words such as “should,” “intend,” “may,” “expect,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “continue,” “plan,” “project,” “will,” “could,” “would,” “target,” “potential” and other similar expressions. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances are forward-looking statements. Although Atlantic Power Corporation (“AT”, “Atlantic Power” or the “Company”) believes that the expectations reflected in such forward- looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Please refer to the factors discussed under “Risk Factors” and “Forward -Looking Information” in the Company’s periodic reports as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time for a detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties affecting the Company, including, without limitation, the Company’s ability to evaluate and/or implement a broad range of potential options, including further selected asset sales or joint ventures to raise additional capital for growth or potential debt reduction, the acquisition of assets, the dividend level, as well as broader strategic options, including a sale or merger of the Company, and the impact any such potential options may have on the Company or the Company’s stock price. Although the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon what are believed to be reasonable assumptions, investors cannot be assured that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements, and the differences may be material. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation and, except as expressly required by applicable law, the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances. Disclaimer – Non-GAAP Measures Free Cash Flow, Cash Distributions from Projects and APLP Project Adjusted EBITDA are not measures recognized under GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP. Free Cash Flow is defined as cash flows from operating activities less capex; project-level debt repayments, including amortization of the new term loan; and distributions to noncontrolling interests, including preferred share dividends. Management believes that Free Cash Flow and Cash Distributions from Projects are relevant supplemental measures of the Company's ability to earn and distribute cash returns to investors. Reconciliations of Free Cash Flow to cash flows from operating activities and of Cash Distributions from Projects to project income (loss) are provided on slide 39 of this presentation. Investors are cautioned that the Company may calculate these measures in a manner that is different from other companies. Project Adjusted EBITDA is defined as project income (loss) plus interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (including non-cash impairment charges) and changes in fair value of derivative instruments. Project Adjusted EBITDA is not a measure recognized under GAAP and is therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies and does not have a standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP. Management uses Project Adjusted EBITDA at the project level to provide comparative information about project performance and believes such information is helpful to investors. A reconciliation of Project Adjusted EBITDA to project income (loss) and a bridge to Cash Distributions from Projects are provided on slide 39 of this presentation. Investors are cautioned that the Company may calculate this measure in a manner that is different from other companies. The Company has not reconciled non-GAAP financial measures relating to individual projects or to the APLP projects to the directly comparable GAAP measures due to the difficulty in making the relevant adjustments on an individual project basis. The Company has not provided a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP measures, because not all of the information necessary for a quantitative reconciliation is available to the Company without unreasonable efforts primarily as a result of the variability and difficulty in making accurate forecasts and projections. All amounts in this presentation are in US$ and approximate unless otherwise stated. 2
Agenda • Q2 Highlights • Operations Update • Commercial Update • Q2 2014 Financial Review • Wrap-Up and Q&A 3
Q2 2014 Highlights $75.0 $34.0 $55.9 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 34% (101)% 372% $(7.5) $7.2 $(15.1) Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Project Adjusted EBITDA ($ mm) Free Cash Flow ($ mm) Cash flows from operating activities ($ mm) Excludes results from discontinued operations Includes results from discontinued operations Includes results from discontinued operations 34% increase in Project Adjusted EBITDA to $75 million Reported Free Cash Flow was $(15.1) million + Lower maintenance expense at several projects due to fewer gas + Increased cash flows from operating activities of $26.8 million turbine outages this year than last - Offset by APLP term loan repayment of $37.5 million + Stronger wind generation, particularly at Meadow Creek + Increased water flows at Curtis Palmer + Increased waste heat generation by our Ontario projects Expect positive Free Cash Flow generation in second half + Full quarter of Piedmont operation vs. partial quarter last year + Lower gas costs and higher capacity payments at Orlando Key Takeaways Strong wind, water and waste heat in Q2 offset most of the Q1 shortfall caused by plant outages Affirming our 2014 guidance for Project Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow On track to reduce debt on a net basis this year by approximately $80 million 4
̶ ̶ ̶ Q2 2014 Operational Performance: Outage Comparisons; Strong Wind, Water and Waste Heat Weighted Average Availability Aggregate Power Generation Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013 (thousands, Net MWh) Q2 2014 Q2 2013 2,023 2,009 East 90.2% 93.9% 0.7% West 90.9% 88.7% 960 958 Wind 98.3% 98.6% 544 559 521 490 (0.2)% (2.7)% 6.3% Total 91.2% 92.9% Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Availability factor of 91% vs. 93% East Wind Total West Extended scheduled maintenance outages at Cadillac, Generation across our portfolio increased 0.7% for the quarter, driven by: Orlando and Naval Station in + increased generation from Curtis Palmer 2014 + a full quarter of Piedmont + Favorable outage comparisons vs 2013: Mamquam, Williams favorable outage comparisons at Williams Lake + Lake and Naval Training Center + strong wind conditions at Meadow Creek and Rockland Piedmont Update reduced dispatch at Manchief and Selkirk • Scheduled outage completed scheduled maintenance outages at Cadillac, Orlando and Naval Station (April) Business recap: • 100% of capacity revenues in Q2 • Wind – Ahead of budget; wind volumes up 6.4%, with Meadow Creek and Rockland up 13% (vs Q2 2013) • July outage (generator • Hydro – Ahead of budget; Curtis Palmer generation up 24% in Q2 (vs Q2 2013) connection) • Thermal – Slightly ahead of budget; increased waste heat levels at Ontario projects • Reduced capacity payments likely in Q3 5
̶ ̶ YTD June 2014 Operational Highlights Aggregate Power Generation YTD June 2014 vs. YTD June 2013 (thousands, Net MWh) Weighted Average Availability 4,111 3,891 YTD YTD June 2014 June 2013 6% East 92.1% 94.9% 2,053 1,902 West 90.2% 91.1% 1,100 1,063 8% 926 959 4% 4% Wind 95.8% 98.4% Total 91.9% 93.9% YTD June 2013 YTD June 2014 YTD June 2013 YTD June 2014 YTD June 2013 YTD June 2014 YTD June 2013 YTD June 2014 East West Wind Total Generation increased 6%: Extreme weather and several forced outages in Q1 affected results + Piedmont added in April 2013 + favorable performance of Idaho wind projects Q1 forced outages at Kapuskasing, Tunis, Piedmont, + higher water flows at Curtis Palmer Williams Lake and Canadian Hills; + increased dispatch at Chambers extended scheduled outages at increased generation at Frederickson + North Island and Mamquam - reduced dispatch at Manchief Q2 extended scheduled outages at Cadillac, Orlando and Naval Business recap: Station • Wind – Ahead of budget; strong Q2 more than offset Canadian Hills weather- + Fewer forced outages in Q2 2014 related outage in Q1 • Hydro – Slightly ahead of budget; Curtis Palmer water volumes up 24% in Q2 Piedmont forced outage in July, but and 9% YTD (vs Q2 and YTD June 2013); added 4 MW at Mamquam better performance since then • Thermal – Below budget due to Q1 outages and $4.7 million capacity payment shortfall; Ontario waste heat levels up compared to Q2 2013 6
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