Q2.16 Financial Results August 31, 2016
Important Notice – Forward Looking Information No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on them. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group’s view only as of the date hereof. National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results 1 Legal
Table of Contents 1 Financial Highlights 2 Liquidity 3 Profitability 4 Asset quality 5 Capital 6 Macro 7 Appendix
Financial Highlights 1
H1.16 Group PAT from continued operations breaks even at € 3m Group P&L P&L Highlights € m 1H16 1H15 yoy 2Q16 1Q16 qoq Q2 Group core PPI at € 247m, driven by domestic core PPI, up by NII 961 959 0% 482 479 +1% 10% qoq Fees & Commissions 1 149 150 -1% 76 73 +4% Pillar-2 costs (45) (91) -51% (15) (30) -50% • Domestic core income is driven by funding cost improvements as time Insurance income 41 63 -35% 23 18 +30% deposit repricing continued unabated in Q2 (-19bps qoq), ELA was reduced further (- € 4.9bn qoq) and Pillar II exposure dropped further Trading & other income (49) (30) 63% (43) (6) >100% and was eliminated in July allowing for the Government representative Income 1,058 1,051 1% 524 534 -2% to leave the Board Operating Expenses (628) (641) -2% (319) (309) +3% • H1.16 OpEx in Greece, down by 3% yoy, driven by both personnel Core PPI 478 440 9% 247 231 +7% (-2.9% yoy) and G&A (-4.3%); future VRS savings will provide further PPI 429 410 5% 205 225 -9% cost containment Provisions (365) (2,680) -86% (208) (158) +32% • Q2 domestic provisioning run rate at 231bps vs 164bps in Q1, due to credit charges relating to a limited number of corporate defaults Operating Profit 64 (2,271) n/m (3) 67 n/m during Q2. H1.16 CoR at 197bps, or 189bps at Group level Other impairments (46) (171) -73% (12) (34) -66% • Q2 trading income includes € 35m related to the VISA transaction PBT 18 (2,442) n/m (15) 33 n/m Taxes (15) 535 n/m (9) (7) +34% H1.16 Group PAT 2 from continued operations breaks even at € 3m, PAT (cont. ops) 3 (1,908) n/m (23) 26 n/m reflecting domestic core income growth and CoR reduction relative PAT (discount. ops) (2,957) 150 n/m (3.028) 71 n/m to 2015 Minorities (21) (15) 34% (10) (10) 0% Positive recurring PAT contribution from our SEE international Other one-offs - - n/m - - n/m business rises to € 52m in H1, +98% yoy Attributable PAT 2 (2,975) (1,773) 68% (3.062) 87 n/m 1. Excludes Pillar-2 costs 2. Group attributable income includes a loss of € 3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income related to Finansbank . This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results 4 Highlights
Improving liquidity profile, substantially reduced NPE stock, strong capital position Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 Significant ELA reduction and elimination of Pillar II and III exposure 3Q15 2Q15 ELA reduced by an impressive € 6b from end Q1.16, resulting into a current exposure of just • Liquidity € 5. 0b, underscoring NBG’s unique liquidity profile L/D ratio 91% 92% 91% 96% 99% Elimination of Pillar II and III exposure, reduces fee costs by half in Q2.16; implies an • annualized funding cost saving of ca € 200m compared with 2015 ELA exposure ( € bn) 6.1 11.0 11.5 15.6 17.6 Regain access to repo market with EFSF bonds currently at € 3.4b • o/w Pillar exposure (nominal) 2 2.4 7.1 11.8 18.0 16.9 L:D ratio at 91% in Greece and the Group • Profitability Domestic deposits broadly stable in Q2, + € 300m qtd • 1 st Quarter of NPE stock reduction, excluding write offs NIM (bps) 285 280 280 279 264 The stock of NPEs contracts for the first time (- € 0.9bn qoq) reflecting the combined positive • 56% 57% 64% Cost / Core income 64% 62% impact of favourable formation trends, curing and write offs Asset quality Domestic 90dpd retail formation remains negative (- € 98m); all retail segments, including SB, • recorded negative formation NPE ratio 45.8% 47.3% 46.8% 45.1% 43.5% Domestic 90dpd corporate formation edges sharply lower qoq but remains elevated due to a • NPE coverage ratio 54.3% 53.0% 52.8% 52.2% 52.4% small number of corporate exposures lapsing into default Cost of Risk (bps) 216 162 746 H1.16 domestic CoR at 197bps; NPE coverage at an industry leading 55% (+140bps qoq) 251 2 195 • UBB ranked top among peers with excellent results in both the AQR and the ST, confirming a • Capital solid capital position with CET1 adjusting by just 40bps to 25.7%. 16.8% 1 17.2% 3 17.5% 3 CET1 phased-in 9.6% 9.5% CET 1 pro forma 1 ratio at 16.8% 16.2% 1 16.7% 3 16.8% 3 CET1 ratio CRD4 FL 8.8% 8.7% CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 16.2% 1 , including CoCos, CET 1 at 21.6% • Group RWAs at 40.5b 1 of which € 34.7b in Greece (phased in) 40.5 1 40.4 3 40.3 3 RWAs ( € b) 60.7 62.9 • Capital adequacy to be further enhanced by implementation of the restructuring plan • 1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and NBGI divestments and CoCos repayment, 2. Pillar II zero as of July 2016 3. Pro forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments, Finansbank sale and CoCos repayment, National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results 5 Highlights
Liquidity 2
ELA drops by € 6bn to just €5bn, underscoring NBG’s unique liquidity advantage Peer group analysis 1 : liquidity position Eurosystem funding ( € bn) L:D ratio 91% 127% 144% 150% 27.6 25.6 ELA / € 3.6bn repo 8% 20% 24% 29% 24.0 Assets 2 23.6 placed with 22.8 the market 18.3 over the past 5 months 15.4 17.6 11.5 15.6 11.0 13.5 13.9 14.9 14.2 13.2 6.1 5.0 5.0 14.2 12.5 11.8 10.1 10.0 9.8 8.9 8.2 ELA exposure ( € bn) NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Aug 1. Latest available data 2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results 7 Liquidity
Pillar II and III exposure fully repaid Pillar II & Pillar III eliminated Eurosystem collateral cash values ( € bn) | Aug 2016 15.6 Other 1.2 1.9 Cov. bonds Other ELA collateral ECB: (cash value) 5.7 11.0 Credit claims € 8.2bn 14.6 11.5 EFSF / ESM 11.0 6.3 No Pillar 9.8 exposure Other 2.4 5.1 7.2 6.1 Pillar-2 & 3 bonds 5.0 (cash value) 9.9 Cash value of eligible collateral: € 22.9bn 4.3 6.4 3.8 1.8 ELA Sep-15 ELA Dec-15 ELA Mar-16 ELA Jun-16 ELA Aug-16 Undrawn liquidity National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results 8 Liquidity
Deposits stabilize in Q2, increasing in Q3 Greek deposit flows per quarter ( € bn) Deposit evolution by geography ( € bn) YoY Group 41.5 41.9 43.0 42.0 42.2 +1.7% ex-TUR 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 6.5 +8.1% 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.0 SEE & Other -0.9 36.6 +0.6% 35.7 35.7 35.5 35.8 +2.2% -2.2 -2.5% 0% +0.9% -3.6 -4.8 Greece - € 10.6 bn + € 0.5 bn 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 qtd 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results 9 Liquidity
L:D ratio steady at 91% Gross loan evolution by geography ( € bn) L:D ratio evolution YoY Group -4.3% 53.4 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.1 ex-TUR 7.6 7.6 7.2 7.3 -7.0% 7.1 SEE & 107% other SEE & Other 104% 45.8 44.9 44.7 44.3 44.0 -3.9% 99% -2.0% -0.5% -0.9% -0.7% Group 97% 96% 96% Greece 98% 92% 91% 92% 94% 91% 91% 90% Greece 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results 10 Liquidity
Profitability 3
Recommend
More recommend
