Transformative Projects & Project Performance Assessment Horizon & Plan Bay Area 2050 Anup Tapase, MTC/ABAG – November 15, 2018 1
Horizon Overview: Preparing for an Uncertain Future 2
The Horizon initiative is designed to identify strategies and investments to prepare the Bay Area for an uncertain future – to ensure we are resilient to ever-changing economic, political, technological, and environmental conditions. 3
Horizon and Plan Bay Area 2050 Transportation will be more comprehensive than past RTP/SCS cycles. Other Potential Topics TBD Land Use (new) Horizon ’s Guiding Principles and Plan Bay Area 2050 ’s goals & targets will guide decision-making and integrate cross-cutting Economic Resilience issues, including equity Development (new) (new) and sustainability. 4
Key Components of Horizon Outreach Perspective Futures Project Papers Performance 5
Three Futures – “What If?” Scenarios What if... new technologies and a national carbon tax enabled greater telecommuting and distributed job A centers? What if... the federal government cuts spending and B reduces regulations, leaving more policy decisions to states and regions? What if... an economic boom and new transportation C options spur a new wave of development? 6
Futures – External Forces For more information on the Horizon futures, visit bayareametro.gov/horizon . COLOR LEGEND Lower value Higher value 7
Futures – Population and Jobs Year 2040 Forecasts (for reference) COLOR LEGEND 9.6 million residents and 4.7 million jobs Lower value Higher value 8
Project Performance Assessment 9
The Project Performance Assessment evaluates major transportation investments for the Bay Area , through a primary benefit-cost assessment and secondary assessments that study impacts with respect to Guiding Principles and equity. 10
Spring 2015 to February 2018 September 2019 July 2017 to August 2019 to June 2021 High-performing projects from Horizon – those that are resilient to uncertainties – will be recommended for inclusion in the Preferred Plan Bay Area 2050 (RTP/SCS). 11
Project Performance Assessment: Projects Slated for Assessment – Total: ~94 Capacity Full list available at: Major Projects (>$250M) Increasing https://mtc.ca.gov/our-work/plans- from PBA2040 Projects projects/horizon/project- (31) performance-assessment Bay Crossing Alternatives (7) Transformative Projects (>$1B) from Partner Agencies (37) Transformative Projects Online Transformative Project Finalists Submission Process from Public/NGOs (6) Selected Transformative Project Finalists by Jury Operational Strategies from Agencies/Public/NGOs (6) Resilience Resilience Projects (7) Projects 12
Major Project Examples (Total: 31) Bus Pricing • AC Transit Frequency Increases • Express Lanes • Muni Forward • Downtown SF Congestion Pricing • San Pablo BRT • SR-239 Tollway • El Camino Real BRT BART and Commuter Rail Freeways and Interchanges • BART Core Capacity • I-680/SR-4 Interchange + Widening SR-4 Widening • BART to Silicon Valley Phase 2 • Caltrain Modernization Phase 2 • SMART to Cloverdale Other (Ferry, Bicycle, etc.) LRT • Downtown San Jose LRT Subway • WETA Ferry Expansion • Stevens Creek LRT • Bay Bridge West Span Bike Path • Better Market Street 13
Transformative Project Examples (Total: 37) Bus/LRT Bridges and Tunnels • Richmond-San Rafael Bridge • AC Transit Transbay Replacement Improvements • Webster/Posey Tube Replacements • Muni Metro Southwest Subway • SR-87 Tunnel • Fremont-Newark LRT BART and Commuter Rail Networks • BART Evening Service Frequency • South Bay Rail + Resilience Increase • Megaregional Rail Network • Caltrain Grade Separation Program • Oakland/Alameda Gondola • Dumbarton Rail Network Freeways Multimodal / Next Generation • SR-37 Widening + Resilience • Alameda County BRT Network + • I-580/I-680 Corridor Enhancements Connected Vehicle Corridors • SF Freeway GP to HOT Lane • Contra Costa AV Shuttle Conversions Program 14
Transformative Projects 15
Transformative Projects 500+ big ideas to improve Bay Area transportation 16 16
Filtering Process from Online Submissions 500+ Online Submissions Pre-screened for eligibility, completeness, vagueness Capacity-Increasing Capacity-Increasing Operational Strategies Projects (>$1B) from Projects (>$1B) from from Partner Partner Agencies Public/NGOs Agencies/Public/NGOs Screened for feasibility, potential regional benefits, alignment with program goals, and creativity 20 strategies shortlist 15 projects shortlist for jury for jury 17
Jury selection process Packets provided to Jury Jury Voting 15 projects shortlist 20 strategies shortlist 18
Finalists - Transformative Projects (1 of 2) Finalists: 6 Capacity-Increasing Projects Optimized Express Lane Network + I-80 Corridor Overhaul Regional Express Bus Network (Arup) (SPUR and TransForm) Regional Bicycle Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Superhighway Network on All Bridges (Arup) (Tony Breslin) Bay Trail Completion SMART to Richmond via New Richmond-San Rafael Bridge (Jim Stallman) (William Manley, Joseph Naujokas, Christopher Sork and Sonoma County Transportation & Land Use Coalition) 19
Finalists - Transformative Projects (2 of 2) Finalists: 6 Operational Strategies Demand-Based Tolls Integrated Transit on All Highways Fare System (Eddy Ionescu & Jason Lee, (Jeremy Besmer and City of San Seamless Bay Area and SPUR) Jose) Reversible Lanes on Free Transit Congested Bridges and (Mark Apton, Christian Rodgers, Freeways Danielle Venton and Gabriela Zuniga) (City of San Jose) Freight Delivery Higher-Occupancy Timing Regulation HOV Lanes (Daniel Ayers, Marc Brenman, Kevin (3 Revolutions Book Club) Brooks and Cesar Plata) 20
Next Steps 21
Project Performance Assessment Timeline 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 Prep for Project Project Evaluation Results Evaluation • Finalize project • Evaluate projects in Travel Model 1.5 • Release draft results evaluation of project evaluation • Compare societal impact of projects across methodology futures • Prioritize projects • Flesh out project for Plan Bay Area details 2050 • Prepare travel model 22
Questions? For more information: http://bayareametro.gov/horizon 23
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