Presentation Elementary Boundary Study April 23, 2019 1
Preview of Tonight’s Meeting • Welcome Dr. Sidle, Superintendent • Scope and Purpose of Study Mr. Schoch, Consultant • Objectives and Goals Mr. Schoch • Decision Making Methods Mr. Schoch • Boundary Recommendations Mr. Schoch • Supporting Data and Rationale • Implementation Plan Dr. Sidle • Questions Dr. Sidle, Mr. Schoch 2
Scope and Purpose of Study • Scope: • Limited to Kindergarten to 3 rd Grade boundaries, in four existing schools because all other schools serve students districtwide • Purpose: • Analyze enrollment trends within each of the four existing K to 3 rd grade attendance boundaries • Compare projected enrollments in each attendance area with the capacity of the existing K to 3 rd grade school serving that area • Recommend any necessary changes to attendance boundaries anticipating the projected enrollments • Change boundaries to utilize school capacity • Reserve capacity at schools serving residential growth areas • Identify adjustment methods in the event that minor adjustments are needed in the future 3
Decision Making Process • Committee with wide representation and viewpoints • Met six times over three months reviewing extensive amounts of data and options • Developed an understanding of enrollment trends and enrollment projection methods • Established objectives for drawing new boundary lines and implementing the changes • Used sophisticated computer mapping (Geographic Information Systems-GIS) to display many types of information • Developed boundary options and minor variations • Evaluated how well the various options met objectives • Consensus recommendation of committee to the School Board for new boundary lines 4
Objectives • For establishing elementary boundaries • Anticipate enrollment change districtwide and by elementary school in order to utilize available capacity of the schools • Balance class size for instructional, administrative, and financial reasons • Assigned to the closest school to minimize travel time for students • Keep families/neighborhoods together • For implementing the boundary changes • Reroute buses to minimize travel time • Minimize the number of students and families reassigned, while reserving capacity for future • Review guidelines, policies, processes and practices regarding student assignment • For the future • Establish annual review process to monitor plan • Develop an adjustment mechanism to maintain the plan as long as possible
The Major Questions to Be Answered • What are the capacities of the existing elementary schools to provide a modern educational program? • What are the projected enrollments of the existing elementary attendance areas? • Can the existing facilities accommodate projected enrollments? • How much, if any, additional capacity is needed? • Can reassignment of students from one elementary school to another accommodate the projected enrollments? • How long will new attendance areas remain adequate? • Can the longevity of new attendance areas be extended through interim adjustment methods?
Preview of Recommended Boundaries • Preview for overall understanding of areas and extent of redistricting • The data and reasons for each area will be explained individually • General background information will be provided first to demonstrate why the extent of redistricting is required and where 7
Proposed moves are dots with color different from area shading. From York Haven to Orendorf Data and objectives for each area will be explained later. From Orendorf From to Mt. Conewago Wolf to Orendorf 8
Enrollment is Affected by Economic Factors • Birth rates declined by 10% from 2009 to 2014 resulting in 30 fewer students per birth year (age cohort). This is a known phenomenon when severe economic recession causes insecurity about jobs. In other school districts in Pennsylvania, the decline was as much as 30%. • The residential growth required to offset birth rate decline is calculated as follows: • 500 single family homes yield 0.93 students per home equals 465 new students divided by 13 grade levels (K plus grades 1-12) equals 36 students per grade level (age cohort) • In summary, it takes almost 500 new homes to offset birth rate decline in the age group currently entering as Kindergarten students. • While you can see new homes and expect crowded schools, declining birth rates are not apparent. • Great Recession of 2008-09 continues to impact enrollment • Birth rates took several years to rebound to 2009 levels • Pent-up demand for new housing is slowing • Normal economic cycles can change again, possibly soon 9
Students Per School 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Conewago Mount Wolf Orendorf York Haven Shallow Brook Spring Forge Northeastern Northeastern Elementary Elementary Elementary Elementary Intermediate Intermediate Middle School High School School School
Students Per Grade Level 400 350 300 Difference of 2 to 3 classes 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Level (0=K)
Non-public Students Per Grade 80 70 60 50 Nonpublic students 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Levels
Public and Non-Public by Grade 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Non-Public Public
Students by School / Grade 350 Annual adjustment of staffing levels 300 is required as age cohort progresses. 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 9 10 11 12 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 Conewago Elementary Mount Wolf Elem Northeastern High School Northeastern Orendorf Elementary Shallow Brook Spring Forge Intermediate York Haven Elementary Middle School Intermediate School School
Class Size Trends-Kindergarten (guideline 18-20) School Classroom Grade 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Conewago C102 K 18 17 16 16 18 19 Conewago C104 K 19 17 17 18 17 20 Conewago C106 K 18 18 15 16 17 19 Conewago C108 K 19 17 17 17 18 19 Conewago C201 K 17 18 13 14 17 20 Mt Wolf W107 K 20 Lower Mt Wolf W203 K 19 17 16 17 12 16 class size Mt Wolf W204 K 14 15 14 11 16 than Mt Wolf W206 K 21 15 15 16 10 15 other Orendorf Z101 K 21 21 19 18 19 18 schools Orendorf Z102 K 21 21 17 19 17 18 Orendorf Z103 K 17 19 18 Orendorf Z104 K 18 21 14 20 19 16 One classroom available Orendorf Z105 K 19 22 17 19 York Haven Y203 K 18 15 12 11 16 19 York Haven Y205 K 19 18 14 11 14 20 York Haven Y207 K 19 17 17 11 16 21 York Haven Y209 K 18 18 17 14 16 20
Class Size Trends-Grade 1 (guideline 20-22) School Classroom Grade 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Conewago C203 01 23 18 19 16 17 17 Conewago C204 01 23 19 18 17 19 18 Conewago C205 01 23 18 18 18 19 18 Conewago C206 01 20 18 17 15 19 15 Conewago C208 01 17 14 16 18 18 Reduced Mt Wolf W105 01 3 3 17 14 13 from 3 to Mt Wolf W106 01 20 20 16 12 13 18 2 classes Mt Wolf W107 01 21 14 16 16 19 to balance Mt Wolf W108 01 21 21 class size Orendorf Z107 01 23 20 19 20 18 18 Orendorf Z108 01 24 21 18 23 21 19 Orendorf Z109 01 22 22 20 22 19 19 Orendorf Z110 01 22 21 20 22 19 18 Reduced York Haven Y210 01 18 21 16 17 22 20 from 4 to 3 York Haven Y211 01 14 17 11 14 18 19 classes York Haven Y212 01 18 19 15 18 York Haven Y213 01 18 18 13 17 20 19
Class Size Trends-Grade 2 (guideline 20-22) School Classroom Grade 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Conewago C202 02 21 18 21 22 Conewago C303 02 26 22 18 23 23 19 Increase 1 class Conewago C304 02 26 19 21 23 21 17 to lower class Conewago C305 02 23 23 21 19 22 16 sizes Conewago C400 02 20 Conewago C405 02 15 Mt Wolf W105 02 2 2 13 Mt Wolf W200 02 22 19 21 17 14 15 Lower class Mt Wolf W202 02 21 19 18 17 14 sizes than Mt Wolf W205 02 18 19 other schools Mt Wolf W207 02 17 15 14 Orendorf Z202 02 18 22 23 23 23 18 Orendorf Z203 02 16 24 20 22 24 21 Orendorf Z204 02 17 23 20 23 20 19 Higher class Orendorf Z205 02 21 24 22 22 23 18 Orendorf Z206 02 22 One classroom available sizes than York Haven Y103 02 20 21 22 19 18 22 other York Haven Y105 02 18 19 19 16 15 19 schools, still York Haven Y107 02 22 21 21 22 20 22 within York Haven Y212 02 19 guidelines
Class Size Trends-Grade 3 (guideline 22-24) School Classroom Grade 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Higher class Conewago C306 03 25 18 23 18 23 23 sizes Conewago C307 03 22 19 19 21 24 24 Conewago C308 03 24 18 23 19 20 22 Conewago C309 03 22 20 22 21 24 24 Mt Wolf W108 03 20 21 17 15 Lower class Mt Wolf W202 03 13 sizes, much Mt Wolf W205 03 16 20 18 decline in 2 Mt Wolf W207 03 15 22 20 years Mt Wolf W208 03 15 21 19 22 18 13 Orendorf Z207 03 18 18 23 20 21 24 138 total One classroom available Orendorf Z208 03 22 divided by Orendorf Z209 03 17 18 24 23 22 25 7 classes = Orendorf Z210 03 24 18 24 20 22 24 20/class Orendorf Z211 03 24 20 21 23 24 24 York Haven Y108 03 19 17 18 21 16 16 York Haven Y109 03 23 19 21 21 24 18 York Haven Y110 03 20 York Haven Y111 03 24 21 20 20 22 19
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