Preparation of scenarios Function on workshop: Illustrate potential consequences and conflicts – different possible futures Frame and stimulate debate among participant Only a starting point for the participant, who are going to develop their own visions for the future Represent different priorities and sets of value Must be plausible The Danish Board of Technology
Preparation of scenarios How and how many? 3 or 4 is ideal. Less offers too little variety. More causes confusion Journalistic products with scientific filter: Journalist is hired to do the writing. Experts give input and control the plausibility and balance Based on research in local community 2-3 pages each – given to participants before the workshop The Danish Board of Technology
4 scenarios from Næstved Technical solutions and physical consequences Group work: Identify possible consequences for various interest groups in the area The Danish Board of Technology
The Danish Board of Technology
The Danish Board of Technology
The Danish Board of Technology
Looking 100 years ahead Scenario 1. “Do nothing scenario” – No action taken Loss of natural wetlands Loss of holiday cottages and other properties Loss of farmland Loss of tourist centre on Enø Island Beach erosion The Danish Board of Technology
Looking 100 years ahead Scenario 2. “Holiday cottage scenario” – Protection with dikes of Enø Island Beach and properties secured Dike building is costly (Who should pay?) View of the ocean blocked for low-lying holiday cottages The Danish Board of Technology
Looking 100 years ahead Scenario 3. “Nature preservation scenario” – Turning the area into a National Park Letting wetlands move inland at the cost of farm land Letting the ocean flood the currently drained and cultivated bog “Nylandsmosen” Beach erosion Loss of holiday cottages and other properties Loss of tourist centre on Enø Island The Danish Board of Technology
Looking 100 years ahead Scenario 4. “Grand dike scenario” – Protecting the inlet “Karrebæk Fjord” with a dike and a sluice to regulate the water level: Protection of farm land Protection of holiday cottages and other properties Protection of tourist centre on Enø Island Loss of natural wetlands The Danish Board of Technology
Group work How are the technical solutions presented in the different scenarios going to affect the various stakeholders present at the workshop? What kind of conflicts could this result in? One scenario for each group Presentations from each group The Danish Board of Technology
Some of the stakeholders Local and regional politicians Technicians Farmers House owners ’ associations Summer cottage owners Nature conservancy associations Tourist and Business associations Hunters, fishermen, bird watchers and more The Danish Board of Technology
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