Preliminary results for the full year ended 30 September 2014 20 November 2014 v1.3
Disclaimer This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Any statement in this presentation that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding Grainger plc’s future financial condition, business, operations, financial performance and other future expectations, is a forward-looking statement. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty as they relate to events which occur in the future. Actual outcomes or results may differ materially from the outcomes or results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Factors which may give rise to such differences include (but are not limited to) changing economic, financial, business, regulatory, legal or other market conditions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the events specified in this presentation. The forward-looking statements reflect knowledge and information available at the date they are made and Grainger plc does not intend to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. This presentation is for information purposes only and no reliance may be placed upon it. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation. Past performance of securities in Grainger plc cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such securities. This presentation does not constitute an offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities of Grainger plc. FY Results 2014 2
Executive Directors Andrew Cunningham, Chief Executive Mark Greenwood, Finance Director Nick Jopling, Executive Director, Property FY Results 2014 3
Agenda 1. Introduction Andrew Cunningham 2. UK housing market overview Andrew Cunningham 3. The Grainger portfolio Andrew Cunningham 4. Financial highlights Mark Greenwood 5. Operational highlights Nick Jopling 6. Summary and outlook Andrew Cunningham FY Results 2014 4
Grainger overview • A pure residential play with consistent outperformance • Returns driven by asset value growth and income from sales, rents and fees • Highly cash generative business model • A high quality, national portfolio with significant defensive characteristics • Latent value in reversionary portfolio is supplementary to reported net assets FY Results 2014 5
Financial highlights NAV NNNAV Total Dividend +20% +24% +22.6% 291p 242p 2.50p (FY13: 242p) (FY13: 195p) (FY13: 2.04p) Profit before tax Recurring PBT Return on +26% +27% Shareholder Equity £81.1m £47.1m +25.6% (FY13: £64.3m ) (FY13: £37.0m ) FY Results 2014 6
Operational highlights Strong performance in the year Market value of our residential UK portfolios - Continued outperformance rose by 14.6% compared to Nationwide and Halifax indices of 9.5% (average) - Strong sales Vacant sales at 14.1% above Sept 13 values Sales and profit in second half of 2014, - Successful sales launch at Macaulay Walk which will continue in H1 2015 Building business for the future Widening our access to public land build to - Established strategic partnership with Sigma rent opportunities in the regions - Pontoon Dock development with Bouygues Strategic alignment will generate fees and and London Pension Funds Authority returns from our equity investment - Acquisition of Chelsea Houses Portfolio for Reversionary assets with significant £160m refurbishment and extension potential FY Results 2014 7
Strong long term performance Grainger market value vs Nationwide & Halifax Loan to value* and NNNAV (p) 140 61% 135 235 59% 130 57% 215 125 55% 120 195 53% 115 51% 175 110 105 49% 155 100 47% 95 45% 135 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nationwide Halifax NNNAV (right axis) Grainger UKR Grainger UKR & RS LTV (left axis) * Consolidated LTV FY Results 2014 8
Agenda 1. Introduction Andrew Cunningham 2. UK housing market overview Andrew Cunningham 3. The Grainger portfolio Andrew Cunningham 4. Financial highlights Mark Greenwood 5. Operational highlights Nick Jopling 6. Summary and outlook Andrew Cunningham FY Results 2014 9
UK housing market – House Prices • • After two very strong years of Major influencing factors: growth, we believe we are now mortgages, interest rates, politics, seeing signs of stabilisation and employment rate and wages more sustainable levels of growth • Favourable medium-term supply- • Continued signs of positive demand dynamics, improving jobs movement in capital values in market, low mortgage finance costs regions FY Results 2014 10
UK housing market – Growing Private Rental Sector • • Strong, growing demand Government and institutional support to develop a professionally • 2 nd largest housing tenure in the UK managed private rental sector • • Growing opportunities in the regions Stable growth in underlying rents, but remain at affordable levels FY Results 2014 11
Agenda 1. Introduction Andrew Cunningham 2. UK housing market overview Andrew Cunningham 3. The Grainger portfolio Andrew Cunningham 4. Financial highlights Mark Greenwood 5. Operational highlights Nick Jopling 6. Summary and outlook Andrew Cunningham FY Results 2014 12
The Grainger portfolio Asset type by market value (£m) Asset type by units 5% 21% Market rented assets 33% Market rented Reversionary assets Development Reversionary assets 67% 74% Annualised No. of Market VP Reversionary gross units Value Value surplus IV/VP rent £m £m £m % £m Reversionary Assets 7,536 1,507 1,929 422 78% 29 Market Rented Assets* 3,779 434 467 33 93% 28 Development 107 107 - 100% - Total 11,315 2,048 2,503 455 79% 57 * Including German assets, market value of £148m FY Results 2014 13
Our UK geographical exposure (wholly owned) Vacant No of % by Possession % by Avg VP* IPD region units Value units VP (£k) 1 London (Total) 2,357 1,294 58% 557 28% 2 South East 1,307 245 11% 225 15% 3 South West 1,302 244 11% 212 15% 4 East 832 124 6% 181 10% 5 East Midlands 292 35 2% 158 3% 6 West Midlands 719 119 5% 186 9% 7 Wales 71 8 0% 147 1% 8 Yorkshire 396 46 2% 145 5% 9 North West 863 95 4% 130 10% 10 North East 268 30 1% 125 3% 11 Scotland 49 6 0% 134 1% 8,456 100% 2,246 100% 288 * Calculated using full VP value whereas rest of table shows only Grainger’s share 14 FY Results 2014
Grainger’s UK portfolio • A resilient and defensive portfolio due to Units by price brackets* pricing, type, location and condition, with limited exposure to more volatile market 183, 2% areas 564, 7% • 80 units out of c.11,500 are worth £2m Under £250k and over in the UK (vacant possession value) £250k-500k 2,532, 30% £500k-1m 5,177, 61% • £1m+ Strong increases in like-for-like rent levels on our UK market rented portfolio which we manage (9.1% on new lets, 4.2% on renewals) • A proven ability to sell well in all market conditions * Calculated using full VP value whereas rest of table shows only Grainger’s share FY Results 2014 15
Reversionary surplus £2.8bn £2.3bn Reversionary surplus: £503m (120p) £1.4bn Book value Market value Vacant possession value Acquisition – Buy at a Hold Period – Returns Sale – Reversal of discount to vacant from rental income and discount, crystallise possession value house price inflation profits, generate cash • Reversionary surplus, latent value not included in our NAV or NNNAV of 120p per share (£503m), including owned assets and our share of joint ventures and associates • Our reversionary portfolio is estimated to generate over £120m cash per year until 2030 * The above chart includes our share of JVs and associates FY Results 2014 16
Example: Pewsey, Wiltshire Purchased 26 Sept 2003 Tenancy Regulated Est. VP at acquisition £185,000 Price paid (excl. costs) £134,000 Discount (reversion) 27.6% 2003 Rent £3,510 pa 2014 Rent £6,656 pa Vacancy Jan 14 Sale agreed April 14 Pewsey, Wiltshire Sale Price £372,000 Ungeared IRR 11.2% Annualised HPI 6.6% Annualised Rental Growth 6.0% FY Results 2014 17
Agenda 1. Introduction Andrew Cunningham 2. UK housing market overview Andrew Cunningham 3. The Grainger portfolio Andrew Cunningham 4. Financial highlights Mark Greenwood 5. Operational highlights Nick Jopling 6. Summary and outlook Andrew Cunningham FY Results 2014 18
2014 financial highlights Balance sheet Gross NAV NNNAV +20% +24% 291p 242p • In addition, there is the (FY13: 242p) (FY13: 195p) reversionary surplus of 120p per share* • Issued £275m Group LTV corporate bond 46.5% (FY13: 48.0%) * Includes our share of investment in Joint Ventures/Associates FY Results 2014 19
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