POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: GOAL Our goal: Understand tradeoffs Agricultural/ among agricultural/silvicultural Silvicultural Economy economy , water quantity , and water quality for different cropping and forestry systems, over a range of management Water Water practices, soils, and weather Quality Quantity conditions.
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: SCALES Farm and Forest Scale Watershed Scale Production Regional and Profit Economy Aquifer and Aquifer Nutrients Water Use Stream H 2 O Levels and Leached or Yield Streamflows Quality
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: OUTPUTS Farm and Forest Scale Watershed Scale Regional Economy Profit Profit d d ch e ch e a a e e L L N N Water Used Water Used Aquifer Levels/Flows
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Management systems ? (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, Profit water management) Soil types N Leached 30-50 year weather record Water Used
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM Farm and Forest Scale Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Yield distributions Management systems (e.g. practices used for Irrigation (vol, #apps) nutrient management, water management) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Leached N Biophysical Soil/Crop parameters Models distribution Planting density Soil types Pumped water Management actions distribution Leached water 30-50 year weather distribution record
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM Farm and Forest Scale Price distribution Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; Economic Enterprise budgets Profit distribution slash pine plantation) Model Management systems Yield (e.g. practices used for distributions Irrigation (vol, #apps) nutrient management, water management) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Leached N Biophysical Soil/Crop parameters Models distribution Planting density Soil types Pumped water Management actions distribution Leached water 30-50 year weather distribution record
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM Farm and Forest Scale Price distribution Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; Economic Enterprise budgets Profit distribution slash pine plantation) Model Management systems Yield (e.g. practices used for distributions Irrigation (vol, #apps) nutrient management, water management) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Leached N Biophysical Profit Soil/Crop parameters Models distribution Planting density e d Soil types h Pumped water c N Lea Management actions distribution Water Used Leached water 30-50 year weather distribution record
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM Watershed Scale Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Management systems Regional crop and (e.g. practices used for forest production Irrigation (vol, #apps) nutrient management, water management) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Biophysical Aquifer/stream N Soil/Crop parameters Models concentrations Planting density Soil types Spring and Management actions streamflows Weather/climate data Aquifer water and scenarios levels
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM Watershed Scale Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; Economic Enterprise budgets slash pine plantation) Regional Economy Model Management systems Regional crop and (e.g. practices used for forest production Irrigation (vol, #apps) nutrient management, water management) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Biophysical Aquifer/stream N Soil/Crop parameters Models concentrations Planting density Soil types Spring and Management actions streamflows Weather/climate data Aquifer water and scenarios levels
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM Watershed Scale Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; Economic Enterprise budgets slash pine plantation) Regional Economy Model Management systems Regional crop and (e.g. practices used for forest production Irrigation (vol, #apps) nutrient management, water management) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Regional Biophysical Economy Aquifer/stream N Profit Soil/Crop parameters Models Aquifer/Stream concentrations N L eac hed Planting density Water Quality Soil types Spring and Management actions Water Used Aquifer Levels/Flows streamflows Weather/climate data Aquifer water and scenarios levels
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: WTA & WTP* + Profit c hed a e N L Water Used Incentive program design Regional Economy Profit Value of meeting environmental goals Aquifer/Stream d e Water Quality h eac L N *Willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept Water Used Aquifer Levels/Flows
POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: GOAL Our goal: Understand tradeoffs Agricultural/ among agricultural/silvicultural Silvicultural Economy economy , water quantity , and water quality for different cropping and forestry systems, over a range of management Water Water practices, soils, and weather Quality Quantity conditions.
Farm/Forest Biophysical Models, Cropping Systems & Practices • Farm-scale (DSSAT, SWAT) • corn, peanut, cotton, carrot, hay, grazed pasture • PMP defined 3 levels of current practices • Nutrient Management • Irrigation Management • Winter cover crops, conservation/strip tillage, buffers/setbacks • Conversion to less intensive rotational production systems • Conversion to silviculture • Forest-scale (3PG, SWAT) • Slash, Loblolly, Longleaf • PMP defined 3 levels of current practices • Nutrient management • Stand Structure Management • Understory management
Farm/Forest-Scale Economic Modeling • Land uses/enterprises: corn, peanut, cotton, carrot, hay, grazed pasture, pine forest • Enterprise budgets estimate expected costs & returns at 3 levels of production practices. • Risk for each scenario is modeled considering variability in yields and input/output prices.
Watershed-scale modeling (Regional modeling) LFRB Coupled Main goal SWAT-MODFLOW Quantify regional impacts on groundwater, river water, and spring water’s quantity and quality due to: • Alternate land use • Cropping systems • BMP scenarios Ritesh Karki • Climate impacts Coupled Surface and Groundwater Model SFRB Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW Patricia Spellman SFRB DisCO Model Rob de de Rooij Source: SWAT-MODFLOW Documentation
Regional-economic im impacts modeling of f BMP adoption and la land use ch change • Input • Expenditure estimates from enterprise-level analysis and land use modeling • Model • Input-Output model • Method • Using IMPLAN software to track the impact of expenditures • Results • Direct, indirect and induced impacts in terms of total output, value-added, employment, labor income, and federal and state tax benefits
Willingness to Accept (WTA) and Willingness to Pay (WTP) for BMP adoption and land use change • Willingness to Accept (WTA) • Hypothetical descriptions of incentive programs • Program’s attributes and levels • Survey (n=~600) • Analyzed using best-worst choice modeling • Supply curve to access the level of BMP adoption or land use change under various level of incentive payments • Willingness to Pay (WTP) • Similar design as WTA • Survey (n=~2000) • Best-worst choice modeling • Demand curve to access the perceived value of meeting environmental goals to society
Land Use Change Modeling Objectives Study Area 1. Determine optimal allocation of land parcels based on economic drivers (i.e., profit maximization). 2. Examine the impact of government policies on land use and adoption of different BMPs at the watershed level. 3. Combine land allocation with SWAT and IMPLAN to analyze changes in nitrate levels and economic impacts, respectively. Synergetic Task People Puneet Dwivedi LUC IMPLAN Ranjit Bawa Regional Economy Profit Aquifer/Stream N L eac hed Water Quality SWAT Water Used Aquifer Levels/Flows
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