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Feb 06, 2023 •323 likes •570 views

PHASTAR The Future for the Western Statistics and Programming Communities in the Face of Globalisation Kevin Kane Overview The Global Economy Pharmaceutical Companies East vs West Stats & Programming The Future Global

  1. PHASTAR The Future for the Western Statistics and Programming Communities in the Face of Globalisation Kevin Kane

  2. Overview – The Global Economy – Pharmaceutical Companies – East vs West – Stats & Programming – The Future

  3. Global Economy • The events of 2007 – “Great Repression” • Economic historian Niall Ferguson – “Great Contraction” • Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff – “Great Crash” • University of Berkeley’s Robert Reich

  4. Capitalism The whole intellectual edifice of financial economics collapsed Alan Greenspan Large swaths of economics are going to have to be rethought Larry Summers The notion that unfettered markets, all by themselves, can ensure economic prosperity are growth… is over Joseph Stiglitz

  5. Basic Ideas • Old Capitalism focus is profit • Ignores impact of people, communities, society and the environment • Thin value • Constructive Capitalism is sustainable, and does not allow people, communities, society and the natural world to come to economic harm

  6. Pharmaceutical Companies

  7. Demand for New Medicines • Heart attacks Cancer survival • Anti-infectives • New medical conditions • Respiratory illnesses • Ageing populations

  8. Costs of Drug Development

  9. Solutions? • Sufficient resources at early stages • Network of R&D resources • Biomarkers & Personalised Medicine? • Adaptive Designs? • More innovation, less “me-too” • Cheaper R&D costs

  10. Other Pressures • Cost-constrained healthcare systems • More demanding regulatory systems • More informed and active patients • $209BN of drug sales at risk from patent expiries • Some are predicting the extinction of the industry

  11. East vs West • Interesting survey looking at growth in Europe, US and Asia • Scores based on management practices:- – Monitoring – Target Setting – Incentives

  12. Management Practice Scores

  13. Management practice vs GDP

  14. US/UK/India/China

  15. The Future • Big Questions • Asia: Price, Quality • West: Price, Demand

  16. Price: Predicting the Future Prices/Wages East Years

  17. Price: Predicting the Future Prices/Wages West East Years

  18. Reality This is certain… …work that can be done cheaper in Asia will move to Asia – e.g. straightforward reporting

  19. What can the West do? • Comparison with Constructive Capitalism • Stats/programming are an R&D cost • Adding more value • Work with our global partners • Technological advances

  20. Adding more value.. • Stats/programming as part of a drug development company • Consider the whole cost (not thin value ) • Involvement in work to improve the probability of drugs getting on the market • Better study design • Reduce trial cycle time

  21. Technological Advances • Labour intensive process • My 21 year view of technology advances • Standardisation & Efficiency • What I think we need

  22. Price: Predicting the Future Prices/Wages West (routine) East Years

  23. Price: Predicting the Future West (innovative) Prices/Wages West (routine) East Years

  24. In Summary… The West must compete in the global economy through specialisation and by adding value to everything we do. Developed nations can maintain their share of world markets by making more sophisticated products and incorporating technological prowess at every stage. They must compete on quality rather than price. Peter Mandelson, 2011

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