T HE N ATIONAL S ECURITY -E NERGY N EXUS S TEPHAN D E S PIEGELEIRE HCSS S ENIOR S CIENTIST R OYAL H IGHER I NSTITUTE FOR D EFENCE , B RUSSELS , M AY 13, 2013
Personal priors � Triple handicap � Been spending too much time in the future recently � Very critical about (much) security foresight (been fried before) � I think the securitistas have usually ended up on the ‘wrong’ side of resource scarcity issues � Main theses: � Global energy landscape being dramatically reshaped – for the better � Europe’s ‘security of supply’ hasn’t looked this bright since decades � Key policy levers are R&D , markets and diversification (both in energy and in geographical source), NOT traditional geopolitics � much room for adaptability � We need a balanced (whole-of-government/society) policy discussion in which defence and security organizations can play an important catalyzing role � (Adaptive!!!) policy choices are still required
Multi-perspective approach missing in action � Many different perspectives � Energy crowd (policy, commercial, professionals) � Business crowd (competitive advantage) � ‘Policy’ crowd (fighting their battles) � Environmental crowd (red-green/blue-green) � Ideological crowd � Technology crowd (‘old’/new, closed/open innovation) � Geopolitical crowd (of various ilk) � The ‘public’ � Very little cross-perspective analysis
Churchill and the Creation of the Energy-Security Nexus “We must become the owners, or at any rate the controllers at the source, of at least a proportion of the oil which we require.” British Royal Commission, agreeing with Winston Churchill's policy towards Iraq , 1913
The Energy-Defence Nexus: Today and Tomorrow � Much (defence and security foresight) now focuses on ‘energy’ issues � Until fairly recently (2010), the tenor of that foresight work was negative: energy security is in danger, we need to start playing ‘hard ball’ � The tenor is starting to change towards a brighter picture � [Energy security considerations are also a growing component of military planning and operations]
Security Energy in Defence Foresight
EDA on energy Deep Uncertainty
More Direct Link between Energy and Our Armed Forces
Structure of the presentation � ‘Energy’ as a case study for � How to redefine defence and security in an era of austerity � How to deal with uncertainty in defence and security planning � New mode(l)s of post-industrial governance that go beyond the stovepipes � What do ‘security’ and ‘defence’ really mean today? � Some ‘big picture’ insights on the rapidly changing global energy landscape and its uncertainties � How to ‘fit’ energy security into national security
M EANING OF ‘D EFENCE ’ AND ‘S ECURITY ’
Meaning of ‘security’ ? ?
Epochal change
‘Armed Force’ as a Reflection of the Age Nomadic (Hunter/gatherer) Agrarian society Industrial society Age Bare Hands Cold Hot ‘Arms’ Human Mechanical Thermal Energy Unit Clan Settlement Nation-State Post-industrial society: Information and knowledge age Age
Impact of Epochal Change Pre-industrial Industrial Post-industrial Actors Chieftains ‘Princes’ (link x nation states) States + non-states Ad-hoc forces (no permanent Permanent (industrial) armed Armed Forces larger than 3000 – v Creveld) forces ? ‘Arms’ Bare-handed/Cold Industrial platforms/Hot much more diverse (DIME Organization Clan Linear Network Vertical multi-layered Structure Vertical simple hierarchy hierarchy Heterarchy? Connectedness Singular force (all-in-one) Connected (e.g. CS & CSS) Distributed? Weather ‘Fair-weather’ Year-round 24/7 Pervasive Domain Mostly land, some sea Land-Air-Sea Multi-domain (space, cyber Effects through Concentration Mass (economies of scale) Network (economies ) Level Tactical Operational(/strategic) Fused Projection Local Line-of-sight Global Mode Hit-and-run / Siege Linear Attrition & Manoeuvre Network ? Specialization All-in-one Advanced role specialization Network Time of ‘battle’ Punctuated Punctuated Pervasive C2 Heroic leadership Increasingly sophisticated C2 Network Planning Rudimentary planning Deliberate purposive planning Adaptive planning Model
What Is ‘Security’ Planning … Information Planning ‘Grand Strategic’ Planning Development Aid Planning Diplomatic Planning ‘National Security’ Planning Defence Planning Future Forward planning Force Time planning Operational planning Quick response procurement Now Scope Narrow Broad (e.g. DOTMLPFI)
T HE ‘B IG P ICTURE ’ OF E NERGY S ECURITY
Energy security
Drivers of the Energy Future • GDP & pop. growth GDP & pop. growth GDP & pop. growth GDP & pop. growth • Significant resources Significant resources Significant resources Significant resources • urbanization urbanization urbanization urbanization Demand Growth Demand Growth Demand Growth Demand Growth Supply Challenges Supply Challenges Supply Challenges Supply Challenges • Non Non- Non Non -conventionals - - conventionals conventionals conventionals Technology and Technology and Technology and Technology and policy policy policy policy • Dislocation of resources Dislocation of resources Dislocation of resources Dislocation of resources • Local pollution Local pollution Local pollution Local pollution Security Security Security Security • Import dependence Import dependence Import dependence Import dependence Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts • Climate change Climate change Climate change Climate change Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts of Supply of Supply of Supply of Supply
E NERGY D EMAND
Growth in Energy Demand Due to Economic Activity 400 350 US US US US 300 Primary Energy per capita (GJ) Australia Australia Australia Australia 250 Russia Russia Russia Russia France France France France 200 Japan Japan Japan Japan UK UK UK UK S. Korea S. Korea S. Korea S. Korea Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland 150 Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia 100 Greece Greece Greece Greece Mexico Mexico Mexico Mexico China China China China 50 Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil India India India India 0 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.00 GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
Energy Demand Breakdown vs. Time Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030) BNBOE=Billion Barrels of Oil 130 Equivalent 120 110 100 90 80 Energy Demand (bnboe) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1 BNBOE = 0 6.11x10 18 Joules 1971 2002 2030 Key: Key: Key: Key: - transport - power - industry - other sectors Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants Source: IEA WEO 2004 2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service
Total Energy Consumption Energy Consumption and Population Selected Countries (2010) 80 1.600 Energy Consuption (boe/cap) 70 1.400 Population (Million People) 60 1.200 50 1.000 40 800 30 600 20 400 10 200 0 0
Current Energy Scenario - Total Energy Consumptio Energy Consumption (2010) MM boe/day 60 56,1 Total Consumption: 241 MMboe/day 48,8 45 45,9 30 15 13,9 10,5 10,1 6,4 6,4 5,1 5,1 5,1 4,3 4,2 4,0 3,5 3,4 3,0 2,8 2,4 0 Source: BP Statistical Review, 2011
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand • Energy consumption will grow by approximately 40% u • The largest growth will be in developing countries rld energy consumption History 2008 Projections adrillion Btu 500 482 400 Non-OECD 300 260 288 OECD 244 200 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 �
World Energy Demand Growth World Energy Consumption MM boe/day 400 350 Non-OECD OECD 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook Issue: October 2011
World Energy Demand Growth • Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) will continu World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type the main sources of energy MMboe/day • Supply of renewable sources of energy will grow significantly, but still remain a complementary sou Liquids 120 energy Natural Gas Coal Nuclear 90 Renewables 60 30 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Liquids: Conventional (oil, condensate, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains) Source: EIA Outlook Issue: October 2011 Non-Conventional (oil sands, extra heavy oil, biofuels, GTL, CTL)
Global fundamentals
Population Trends Impacts Energy Use Fertility Rate* Global Demographics* Population Children per Woman Billion Billion 9 9 8 OECD Africa 7 Age 65+ China Other India Non OECD 6 Southeast Asia 6 Latin America 6 5 Africa Age 15-64 4 India 3 3 3 2 China 1 Age 0-14 OECD 0 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 * Source: World Bank & United Nations ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
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