P - Power Ed Gerak Arizona Power Authority December 10, 2018 2 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

D – idn’t C – onsider P - Power Ed Gerak Arizona Power Authority December 10, 2018

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Agenda • Colorado River Compact - 1922 • Boulder Canyon Project Act (Hoover) - 1928 • Arizona Power Authority - 1944 • Colorado River Storage and Diversion Maps • Mead-Powell Elevations • 2007 Interim Shortage Sharing Criteria • Proposed DCP • AZ 2011 Hoover Power Allocation • Power Impacts • Future 3 12/19/2018 Add a footer

Colorado River Compact • Created in 1922 to Divide the Water of the Colorado River • Everyone Feared California’s Insatiable Appetite • Initial Division Based on 17.5 MAF • Upper Basin (CO, UT, WY & NM) got 7.5 MAF • (AZ has 50K AC-FT Allocation from Upper Basin) • Mexico Got 1.5 MAF via Treaty (1944) • Lower Basin Got 7.5 MAF+ • NV – 300K AC-FT (Just Happy to Get Hoover) • CA – 4.4 MAF • AZ -2.8 MAF + Intrastate (Gila River) 4 12/19/2018 Notice I Didn’t say Share

Boulder Canyon Project Act - 1928 • Legislation for Creation of Hoover Dam • Also Created All-American Canal (CA Project) • Purposes for Hoover 1. River Regulation, Improvement of Navigation, and Flood Control; 2. Delivery of Stored Water for Irrigation and other Domestic Uses; 3. Power Generation. • When Hoover was First Contemplated, Power wasn’t in the Initial Design 5 12/19/2018 Add a footer

Arizona Power Authority • Created in 1944 to Receive Hoover Power • Contracted with Bureau for Hoover and Davis Power (Initially) • Initially Contemplated to Develop Statewide Power Grid • State Water-Power Plan (1967) • Bridge Canyon Dam • Marble Canyon Dam • Montezuma Pump Storage • Havasu Pump Storage • Considered State Financing of the CAP 6 12/19/2018 Add a footer

Colorado River Storage & Diversion Map 7 12/19/2018 Add a footer

HISTORY OF LAKE MEAD ELEVATIONS MAX ELEVATION MIN ELEVATION 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 8 12/19/2018 Add a footer

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How it Works • kW = H x Q x 62.4 x 0.746 ÷ 550 x e • where • H = head, in ft. • Q = flow, in cubic ft. per second • 62.4 lbs. = weight of 1 cubic ft. of water • 0.746 kW = 1 hp • 550 foot-lbs./sec. = 1 hp

Average Energy Production Based on Elevation Energy/AF - Elevation 450 440 430 y = 0.7552x - 432.28 420 410 400 390 380 370 360 1060 1070 1080 1090 1100 1110 1120 1130 1140 1 12/19/2018

Power Impacts • Glen Canyon Dam • Davis • Storage • Regulation • Average Generation/AC-Ft = 434.0 kWh • Average Generation/AC-Ft = 124.2 kWh • Current Elevation = 3587.7 ft • Min Elevation = 634.4 • Elevation Change = 1 ft/100K AC-FT • Max Elevation = 644.7 • Hoover Dam • Parker • Storage • Run of the River • Average Generation/AC-Ft = 381.1 kWh • Average Generation/AC-Ft = 69.1 kWh • Current Elevation = 1077.17 ft • Min Elevation = 445.4 • Elevation Change = 1 ft/85K AC-FT • Max Elevation = 449.2 17 12/19/2018 Add a footer

DCP Impacts at Hoover Hoover MWH Total Delta 9.35 MAF Elevation KWH/AF AF MWH DCP - AF IMPACT MWH MWH % Loss APA 1220’ 489.06 9,351,324 4,573,396 4,573,396 1077’ 381.07 9,351,324 3,563,513 192,000 73,166 3,490,347 2.05% 689,343 13.14% 1075’ 379.56 8,667,000 3,289,647 512,000 194,335 3,095,312 468,201 611,324 1072’ 377.29 8,667,000 3,270,011 512,000 193,175 3,076,836 486,677 13.66% 607,675 1050’ 360.68 8,583,000 3,095,716 592,000 213,522 2,882,194 681,319 19.12% 569,233 1045’ 356.90 8,583,000 3,063,307 840,000 299,799 2,763,508 800,005 22.45% 545,793 1040’ 353.13 8,583,000 3,030,898 890,000 314,284 2,716,614 846,899 23.77% 536,531 1035’ 349.35 8,583,000 2,998,488 940,000 328,391 2,670,097 893,415 25.07% 527,344 1030’ 345.58 8,583,000 2,966,079 990,000 342,120 2,623,959 939,554 26.37% 518,231 1025’ 341.80 8,500,000 2,905,300 1,070,000 365,726 2,539,574 1,023,939 28.73% 501,566 18 12/19/2018 Add a footer

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Impact at Glen Canyon Releases MWH MAF KWH/AF MWH IMPACT 10 Year Avg 9.06 434.03 3,932,311 2020 (Proj.) 7.48 434.03 3,246,544 685,766 DCP Impacts at Davis & Parker Davis Parker MWH DCP - AF KWH/AF KWH/AF CA DCP – AF IMPACT 867,000 123.33 67.8 200,000 38,660 917,000 123.33 67.8 250,000 48,325 967,000 123.33 67.8 300,000 57,990 1,017,000 123.33 67.8 350,000 67,655 1,100,000 123.33 67.8 350,000 67,655 20 12/19/2018 Add a footer

Hoover Power Act of 2011 • Arizona’s Allocation – 19.75% energy Arizona’s MW Total % Schedule A 190.9 1,462.3 13.05 Schedule B 189.8 508 37.38 Schedule D 28.9 103.7 27.9 APA Allocation is 409 MW, at Full Pool (1220’), Enough Energy to Power 401K Homes/Year Current Elevation (9.35 MAF Release), Enough Energy for 306K Homes/Year With Tier I Shortage & DCP, Enough Energy for 220K Homes/Year 8.2% Renewable Capacity in AZ, .2% in Nation Only Generates .03% Total Energy in Arizona 21 12/19/2018 Add a footer

Future • DCP – 2.1-10.3% • Hoover Dam Total (with Tiered Shortages) - 7.7-18.5% Loss • Total Potential of 28+% Loss • Looking at Possible Increase of 15% if BOR doesn’t Adjust O&M Plans • 1% Power Gain/Loss for Every +/- 5.3’ Elevation Change • 1’ Change for Every 83K AF at 1075 • 1’ Change for Every 76K AF at 1025 • Glen Canyon Dam • 1 % Power Gain/Loss for Every 4’ Elevation Drop • 1’ Change for Every 95K AF at 3575 • 1’ Change for Every 72K AF at 3525 • Davis &Parker Dam • Below 1045, DCP Impacts CA • Could Impact Power Contracts in AZ 22 12/19/2018 Add a footer

Future • Glut of Solar & Natural Gas • Market Power Down Considerably • Hoover Sometimes More Costly than Market • APA has ability to Firm Hoover Allocation • Increased Downward Pressure on BCP O&M Due to Hydrology • Pray for Snow! 23 12/19/2018 Add a footer

Options/Alternatives • Firm Power with Solar PPA • CAP – 20 Year PPA for $24.99/MW • GRIC Solar Project • Navajo Tribal Utility Agency • Austin Energy - $21/MW unconfirmed • Customer Resource • Transmission Intermediary • Strategic Partner for Maximum Benefit • Billing Agent • CAP • Drone/GIS Resource • SRP • Training Agency • Concentrated Load • Customer Service • CRSP Exchange? • Leadership • 291,921 MWH – 401,679 MWH • Energy Efficiency • 67-92 MW of Solar Capacity 24 12/19/2018 Add a footer