ALLIANCE FUTURE 27 MAY 2018 SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL BEYOND AWACS: THE NEED FOR POLITICAL OWNERSHIP AND ENGAGEMENT NATO PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY MR. ROB MURRAY Head of Section ISR, Land, and Maritime NATO HQ Defence Investment NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 1
ALLIANCE FUTURE 27 MAY 2018 SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL VIDEO PLACEHOLDER NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 2
ALLIANCE FUTURE GLOBAL CONTEXT SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL WARSAW SUMMIT DECLARATION “ NATO AWACS will continue to be modernised and extended in service until 2035. By 2035, the Alliance needs to have a follow-on capability to the E-3 AWACs. Based on high-level military requirements, we have decided to collectively start the process of defining options for future NATO surveillance and control capabilities .” - Allied Heads of State and Government NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 3
ALLIANCE FUTURE GLOBAL CONTEXT SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY DIRECTION “The Assembly … URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic alliance … to swiftly define sustainable options for a follow-on capability to NATO AWACS to take the first step towards avoiding a future capability shortfall .” - Resolution 434, 2016 policy recommendations of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly “ As a follow-on capability is essential, time short, and costs significant, the Rapporteur urges the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the STC in particular to pay close attention to this process as it unfolds .” - 174 STC 16 E bis, The Future of Allied ISR NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 4
ALLIANCE FUTURE PROGRAMMATIC OVERVIEW – LONG TERM SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL 2035 IS NOT AS FAR AS IT SEEMS… Essential activities to define requirements, evaluate options, and select solution Operate New Warsaw Procurement Declaration Contract * Capability Pre-Concept Concept Stage Procurement Operations 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Future NATO is here * hypothetical; based on average 10 year duration to procure/field airborne systems, assuming off-the-shelf product with no prototyping NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 5
ALLIANCE FUTURE PROGRAMMATIC OVERVIEW – NEAR TERM SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL DECISIVE MOMENT UP TO 90 MEUR IN TO SHAPE DIRECTION INDUSTRIAL STUDIES OF TRAVEL Concept Stage What do we need? What do we What’s the best solution Who’s providing what? not know about what we need? for NATO’s needs? NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 6
ALLIANCE FUTURE RECENT PROGRESS SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL Permanent governance framework approved and activated Clear national oversight and accountability for requirements, resources, and programme direction Initial ‘system of systems’ blueprint delivered within scope, schedule, and cost Four supporting studies underway, providing generic background information on: • Human/Machine Interfaces • Surveillance Technology and Threats • Information Assurance • Radio Spectrum Management Building dialogue and relationships with industry • 107 companies represented at AFSC Industry Day on 10 April • Transatlantic ‘ rapid reaction ’ industry team active and supporting Bottom line: all activities authorised, funded, underway, and on track NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 7
ALLIANCE FUTURE INCENTIVES SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL AFSC is relevant • Developing capability beyond all national planning horizons • Evaluating emerging tech to meet long-term requirements AFSC is transatlantic • E-3 retirement a common dilemma for NATO, US, FR, and UK • North American and European industry involved from the start AFSC is potentially valuable • NATO Alliance Ground Surveillance: 1 • 1.2 BEUR acquisition • 1.52 BEUR through-life cost • 2.72 BEUR total • NATO AWACS: 2 • 7.7 BUSD acquisition (1977) • 1.5 BUSD Near-Term Modernisation (1988) • 1.9 BUSD Mid-Term Modernisation (1996) • 951 MUSD Follow-On Upgrade Programme (2010) • 1 BUSD Final Lifetime Extension Programme (2018) • 13 BUSD total 1. Based on AGS Practical Funding Solution in 2011 year EUR, assuming 20 year projected lifetime and no upgrades. 2. Based on MMOU estimates / cost ceilings and adjusted for inflation. NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 8
ALLIANCE FUTURE GLOBAL CONTEXT SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY DIRECTION “The Assembly … URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic alliance … to swiftly define sustainable options for a follow-on capability to NATO AWACS to take the first step towards avoiding a future capability shortfall .” - Resolution 434, 2016 policy recommendations of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly “ As a follow-on capability is essential, time short, and costs significant, the Rapporteur urges the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the STC in particular to pay close attention to this process as it unfolds .” - 174 STC 16 E bis, The Future of Allied ISR NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 9
ALLIANCE FUTURE SO WHAT? SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL IMMINENT DECISIONS REQUIRE POLITICAL OWNERSHIP AND ENGAGEMENT TO ENSURE AFSC DELIVERS THE RIGHT CAPABILITY, AT THE RIGHT TIME, FOR THE RIGHT PRICE • National expert kick-off meeting, 4-5 June, Luxembourg • NATO Defence Ministers meeting, 7-8 June, Brussels • Next AFSC governance meeting, 11-12 June, Brussels • NATO Summit, 11-12 July, Brussels • Study objectives due Oct 2018 • Phase 1 final report due Dec 2018 NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 10
ALLIANCE FUTURE POINTS OF CONTACT SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL Mr. Rob MURRAY Mr. Matthew GILLIS Head Deputy Head and AFSC Secretary ISR, Land, and Maritime ISR, Land, and Maritime NATO HQ Defence Investment NATO HQ Defence Investment murray.robert@hq.nato.int gillis.matthew@hq.nato.int +3227075684 +3227073949 NATO UNCLASSIFIED RELEASABLE FOR INTERNET TRANSMISSION 11
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