OUTCOME ANALYSIS Nigeria March 2018 The HEA analytical framework - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OUTCOME ANALYSIS Nigeria March 2018

The HEA analytical framework HEA is based on a range of information (qualitative and quantitative) collected on the ground or secondary information … is a comparative analysis in time … structured around 2 pillars: BASELINE + HAZARD + COPING = OUTCOME

Outcome Analysis The objective of an outcome analysis is to investigate the effects of hazards (or other changes) on future access to food and income at household level

Expected results (1/2) The projected Outcome Analysis results allow: ① . Comparison of the projected situation of the households against 2 thresholds: - Survival threshold: level of total income (in food or in cash) needed to satisfy the 2100 Kcal per person per day as well as the essentials expenditures linked to preparation and consumption of food. - Livelihoods protection threshold : level of total income needed to ensure the basic survival and maintain local livelihoods Harvest Milk Labour Livestock sales Petty Trade Charcoal sales 200 150 Livelihoods protection Threshold GAP 100 Survival Threshold 50 0 Reference yearEffect of the shock without copying strategyProjected results

Expected results (2/2) ② . To identify the socio-economic group(s) affected by survival or livelihoods protection deficits ③ . To identify, for an area, the seasonality of the deficit for an affected group on a consumption year Period of Deficit Komondjari, Burkina Faso, Very Poor category 120% 100% % min. food energy needs 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% O N D J F M A M J J A S O N deficit total expenditure

Period of Analysis This is an update to the October 2017 analysis, the period or consumption year covered by the analysis is September 2017 – August 2018 for seven livelihood zones in northern Nigeria.

Updated Livelihood Zone Map

Previous Livelihood Zone Map

Livelihood Zones and Areas Covered LZ description State LGAs Millet & Sesame LZ (MAS) Katsina Baure, Daura, Dutsi, Mashi, Zango & Sandamu NW Cotton, Groundnuts & mixed Zamfara Bungudu, Gusau, Maru & Tsafe Cereals LZ (CGC) Hadejia Valley Mixed Economy LZ Kafin Hausa, Auyo, Guri, Kiri Kassama, Malam (HVM) Madori & Kaugama Jigawa Alkaleri, Bogoro, Dass, Gamjuwa, Ningi, Toro & Maize, Sorghum and Cotton LZ (MSC) Bauchi Tafawa Balewa Millet, Cowpeas and Sesame LZ Misau, Katagum, Gaide, Gamawa, Darazo & (MCS) Damban Bauchi Millet Cowpeas and Groundnuts LZ Gagarawa, Buji, Jahun, Birnin Kudu, Kiyawa, (MCG) Dutse, Miga & Taura Jigawa Sorghum Cowpea and Groundnut LZ Zamfara Anka, Bukkuyum & Gumi (SCG)

Analysis Team Composition The analysis team comprised of members from: 1.NEMA 2.Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 3.Bauchi State Ministry of Agriculture 4.Representatives of ADP from Bauchi, Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara States 5.IFAD Jigawa 6.IFAD Katsina 7.Jigawa State Min of Budget and Economic Planning 8.Zamfara State Min of Budget and Economic Planning 9.Save the Children 10.Zamfara State Emergency Management Agency 11.Majesty Community Rural Development Foundation

Result Summary The analysis shows that the very poor households in MAS livelihood zone would likely face survival deficits of 5%, the very poor in MAS, CGC and MCS livelihood zone would likely face a livelihood protection deficit of 11%, 8% & 3% respectively, likewise the poor household also in MAS livelihood zone would likely face a livelihood protection deficit of 2% respectively, while the remaining wealth groups across the LZs are not expected to face any deficit. Households without deficits would be able to access food and income for survival and maintenance of livelihood activities and assets for the period covered by the analysis. Households facing survival deficit would need urgent intervention/support to save lives during the deficit period, while households facing livelihood protection deficit would also need support to protect their existing livelihood assets to prevent depletion of asset and use negative coping strategies.

OA Result Summary LP Deficit Country LZ description Baseline State LGAs Population Wealth Groups % Population Timing of Deficit Survival Deficit (%Kcal) VP 34% Jun- Aug, 2018 5% 11% Millet & Sesame LZ Baure, Daura, Dutsi, P 32% No deficit No deficit No deficit Katsina Sept09-Aug10 (MAS) Mashi, Zango & Sandamu 1,351,607 M No deficit No deficit No deficit 19% No deficit No deficit No deficit BO 16% VP 26% August, 2018 No deficit 8% NW Cotton, Bungudu, Gusau, Maru & P 26% August, 2018 No deficit 2% Zamfara Groundnuts & mixed Sept11-Aug12 Tsafe 1,604,678 M No deficit 26% No deficit No deficit Cereals LZ (CGC) No deficit BO 22% No deficit No deficit VP 38% No deficit No deficit No deficit Kafin Hausa, Auyo, Guri, Hadejia Valley Mixed P 20% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sept10-Aug11 Kiri Kassama, Malam NIGERIA Economy LZ (HVM) 1,333,560 M No deficit 23% No deficit No deficit Madori & Kaugama Jigawa No deficit BO 19% No deficit No deficit 30% VP No deficit No deficit No deficit Alkaleri, Bogoro, Dass, 26% Maize, Sorghum and 2,259,076 P No deficit No deficit No deficit Bauchi 2012-13 Gamjuwa, Ningi, Toro & Cotton LZ (MSC) 23% M No deficit No deficit No deficit Tafawa Balewa 21% No deficit BO No deficit No deficit VP 27% August, 2018 No deficit 3% Misau, Katagum, Gaide, Millet, Cowpeas and 1,817,466 P 29% No deficit No deficit No deficit 2012-13 Gamawa, Darazo & Sesame LZ (MCS) M 25% No deficit No deficit No deficit Damban Bauchi No deficit BO 18% No deficit No deficit VP 34% No deficit No deficit No deficit Gagarawa, Buji, Jahun, Millet Cowpeas and 1,878,024 P 21% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sept12-Aug13 Birnin Kudu, Kiyawa, Groundnuts LZ (MCG) M 20% No deficit No deficit No deficit Dutse, Miga & Taura Jigawa BO 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit 33% No deficit VP No deficit No deficit 756,288 P 20% No deficit Sorghum Cowpea and No deficit No deficit Sept12-Aug13 Zamfara Anka, Bukkuyum & Gumi Groundnut LZ (SCG) 23% No deficit M No deficit No deficit BO 24% No deficit No deficit No deficit

Sources of Food Total Income (food+cash) District: Bungudu District: Bungudu Livelihood Zone: NGCGC Livelihood Zone: NGCGC Household type: VP Household type: VP 120% 250% 200% 100% min. food energy needs % minimum food needs 150% 80% 100% 60% 50% 40% 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds % 20% animal products cons. animal products sold own crops consumed own crops sold animals sold labour - casual/payment in kind 0% baseline + hazard + coping labour - formal emp self - employment survival deficit small business wild foods food transfer - official gifts - food gifts - cash purchase other other food transfer - official gifts - food labour - public works cash transfer - official wild foods labour - casual/payment in kind Thresholds survival own crops consumed animal products cons. l/hoods protection

Total Income (food+cash) Sources of Food District: Bungudu District: Bungudu Livelihood Zone: NGCGC Livelihood Zone: NGCGC Household type: P Household type: P 250% 120% 200% 100% % minimum food needs % min. food energy needs 150% 80% 100% 60% 50% 40% 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds 20% animal products cons. animal products sold own crops consumed own crops sold animals sold labour - casual/payment in kind 0% baseline + hazard + coping labour - formal emp self - employment survival deficit small business wild foods food transfer - official gifts - food gifts - cash purchase other other food transfer - official gifts - food labour - public works cash transfer - official wild foods labour - casual/payment in kind Thresholds survival own crops consumed l/hoods protection animal products cons.

Total Income (food+cash) Sources of Food District: Baure District: Baure Livelihood Zone: NGMAS Livelihood Zone: NGMAS Household type: VP Household type: VP 160% 120% 140% 100% 120% % minimum food needs % min. food energy needs 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 20% 40% 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds 20% animal products cons. animal products sold own crops consumed own crops sold animals sold labour - casual/payment in kind 0% baseline + hazard + coping labour - formal emp self - employment survival deficit small business wild foods food transfer - official gifts - food gifts - cash purchase other other food transfer - official gifts - food labour - public works cash transfer - official wild foods labour - casual/payment in kind Thresholds survival own crops consumed l/hoods protection animal products cons.