Org Organ anic Grai ic Grain Sup n Supply an ply and De d Dema mand nd Reg Regio ional Ana nal Analysis lysis June 2019
Introduction The Jacobsen believes that demand for US organic corn and soybeans will remain stable during the balance of 2019, while supply could be altered by an uneven harvest. We believe that the mid- west weather issues will have less of an effect on US organic soybean/meal supply due to the US’s dependency on imports. Imports of organic corn and organic cracked corn are projected to come in slightly lower during the 2018/2019 season compared to the 2017/2018 and 2016/2017 seasons. Organic corn and organic cracked corn imports make up approximately 23% of total supply and 23% of total use in the United States. This should remain unchanged for the 2019/2020 season. Imports of organic soybeans and soybean meal are forecast to rise by 7% for the 2018/2019 season. Imports of organic soybeans and soybean meal make up 68% of total supply and 74% of total use. Organic Soybean Meal imports should continue to increase during the 2019/2020 season. US acreage of organic corn planted was expected to increase by 5% according to the Jacobsen insight. Mid-west weather could reverse this and show a 5% decrease in acreage planted. A 20% drop in organic corn prices in the US during the past 10-months, appears to coincided with similar decline in Canadian milling wheat prices.
Organic Corn and Organic Cracked Corn Imports in Metric Tons
Organic Soybean and Organic Soybean Meal Imports
Our Balance Sheets US Organic Grain Acreage, yield, and production were calculated and matched off against feed demand, which is driven by broilers, layers, turkey, and milk cow feed. Feed demand makes up 97% of demand for US organic corn and soybean and the demand for soybean is for soybean meal. Soybean supply is converted to meal. The Jacobsen believes that the US 2019/2020 season will produce an uneven harvest, with substantial delays in the eastern Midwest. There could be harvest corn as late as March of 2020, as states such as Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan are running well behind historical norms for planting.
Organic Corn Balance Sheet US ORGANIC US ORGANIC CORN SOYBEAN 414,500 ACRES 219,100 ACRES 64.8 MILLION 10.5 MILLION BUSHELS BUSHEL
Organic Soybean/Meal Balance Sheet US ORGANIC US ORGANIC CORN SOYBEAN 414,500 ACRES 219,100 ACRES 64.8 MILLION 10.5 MILLION BUSHELS BUSHEL
The Jacobsen Organic Dairy Index US ORGANIC US ORGANIC CORN SOYBEAN 414,500 ACRES 219,100 ACRES 64.8 MILLION 10.5 MILLION BUSHELS BUSHEL
There appears to be an oversupply of Canadian organic milling wheat after an increase in acreage of approximately 130%, according to The Jacobsen insight. Prices of organic milling wheat have fallen sharply in tandem with US organic corn. Organic corn prices declined with an increase in acreage that has stuffed elevator and farmer bins. Imports remain steady and feed lots are willing to accept organic cracked corn. Imports are expected to remain steady with robust volumes coming from Argentina during the late summer and early autumn. If the weather curtails or significantly reduces organic corn production, prices will have the opportunity to rise. This could put a bid under Canadian organic feed wheat which would provide an opportunity for Canadian organic milling wheat to rise. What is in Store for Canadian Wheat
Contact Information David Becker US ORGANIC US ORGANIC Organic and Non-GMO Analyst CORN SOYBEAN The Jacobsen 414,500 ACRES 219,100 ACRES David@thejacobsen.com 64.8 MILLION 10.5 MILLION www.thejacobsen.com BUSHELS BUSHEL 516 263 4327 Organic and Non-GMO 4-week Free Trial https://www.thejacobsen.com/organictrial
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