Company Announcements Office 1300 135 638 To Facsimile ASX Limited 28 November 2017 Company Date Helen Hardy 62 From Pages ORG 2017 Investor Day Presentation Subject Please find attached a release on the above subject. Regards Helen Hardy Company Secretary 02 8345 5000 Origin Energy Limited ACN 000 051 696 Level 45 Australia Square, 264-278 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000 GPO Box 5376, Sydney NSW 2001 Telephone (02) 8345 5000 Facsimile (02) 9252 1566 www.originenergy.com.au
2017 Investor Day 28 November 2017 Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 1
Safety moment • Alert tone (“beep, beep, beep”) − Follow instructions of Wardens − Be ready to evacuate • Evacuation tone (“whoop, whoop, whoop”) − Evacuate via nearest exit − Proceed calmly to assembly area Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 2
Schedule 28 November (Sydney - Dexus, Level 15, 1 Farrer Place) Time Duration Topic Presenter 10:00 5 mins Introduction Peter Rice (GM, Capital Markets) 10:05 15 mins Strategic overview Frank Calabria (CEO) 10:20 15 mins Capital management Lawrie Tremaine (CFO) 10:35 30 mins Upstream Mark Schubert (EGM, Integrated Gas) 11:05 25 mins Q&A session 11:30 15 mins Morning tea 11:45 20 mins Energy Supply & Operations Greg Jarvis (EGM, Energy Supply & Operations) 12:05 20 mins Retail Jon Briskin (EGM, Origin Retail) 12:25 35 mins Wrap up / Q&A session Frank Calabria (CEO) 13:00 45 mins Lunch 29 November (Eraring Power Station) Time Duration Activity Bus departs from Radisson Blu (27 O’Connell Street) 08:00 120 mins 10:00 60 mins Eraring Power Station - Safety induction & overview 11:00 90 mins Bus tour 12:30 45 mins Lunch 13:15 60 mins Walking tour 14:15 Conclusion and return bus trip to Sydney Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 3
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW Frank Calabria Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 4
Context 1. Delivering on near term priorities 2. Rebuilding the right to grow 3. Global energy markets accelerating to a low carbon future 4. Origin part of the energy solution and positioned to prosper in a changing energy world 5. Near term catalysts Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 5
Delivering on FY2018 priorities REDUCING DEBT AND LEADERSHIP IN LEADERSHIP IN IMPROVING RETURNS ENERGY MARKETS INTEGRATED GAS Business reset (zero base) Sale of Lattice for $1,585 million Secured 41PJ of additional gas for the domestic market Targeting A$500m+ p.a. APLNG On track for Adjusted Net Debt cost reduction over 18 months FY2018 Eraring output of 15.5 – 16 below $7 billion by June 2018 TWh (higher than prior guidance) Targeting <US$40/boe 1 distribution Disciplined capital management breakeven run rate from June 2019 Renewables coming online Addressing complexity and cost Preparing for FEED on Ironbark Transforming customer experience through digital, innovative products and future energy solutions TRANSFORMING CULTURE Moving to a simpler and leaner operating model • • Refreshing Purpose, Values and Behaviours • Proactively adapting to changing energy markets (1) AUD = 0.75 USD Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 6
Rebuilding the right to grow Asset sale program largely complete Making good progress on balance sheet repair Capital discipline strengthened Renewing efforts to lift the bar on organisation complexity and cost Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 7
Changing global energy markets Renewables expected to be the fastest growing source of energy with gas continuing to play an important role under all IEA carbon reduction scenarios World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario (Btoe) 20 16% 20% 15 24% 14% 25% 29% Btoe 5% 22% 10 6% 5% 28% 25% 27% 32% 10% 5 23% 26% 22% 27% 13% - 2016e 2040 2040 2040 Current policies New policies Sustainable development scenario scenario scenario Coal Oil Nuclear Gas Renewables Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2017 Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 8
Changing global energy markets LNG market is forecast to be oversupplied near term, but moving into a deficit position from early 2020s Global LNG Supply and Demand Balance (mtpa) 600 Under Construction Current Capacity LNG Demand 500 400 mtpa 300 200 100 0 2013 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Gas Model Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 9
Changing global energy markets ‒ Efforts to tackle climate change continue to support strong Decarbonisation growth in renewables and gas as a partner of renewables ‒ Technological advancement enabling consumer empowerment Decentralisation and transition towards a decentralised energy future ‒ Changing all aspects of operations and requiring an overhaul of Digitisation business processes and interactions with customers Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 10
Australian energy market As markets transition there is heightened concern for reliability & affordability Historical Monthly Average Wholesale Gas Prices 1 Historical Monthly Average Wholesale Electricity Prices 250 16 14 200 12 10 150 A$/GJ A$/MWh 8 6 100 4 50 2 0 Mar-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-15 May-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jul-17 0 Mar-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-15 May-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jan-17 May-17 Brisbane Sydney Victoria Adelaide QLD NSW VIC SA Source: AEMO Source: AEMO 1) Short term trading market Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 11
Origin is focused on being part of the energy solution Increasing Eraring output (to 15.5 – 16 TWh) Recently secured 41 PJ of additional gas from APLNG for the domestic market Brought 240 MW of generation back on line in SA Providing energy reliability via Australia’s largest fleet of peaking gas-fired power stations Renewable supply expected to almost triple by 2020 (1,200 MW committed since March 2016) Working with government to address energy affordability, reliability and sustainability Support the National Energy Guarantee APLNG committed to meeting AEMO gas shortfall Support retail initiatives at a Federal and State level Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 12
Origin’s strategy is designed to capture value in the future energy world Leading the transition to a cleaner, smarter and customer-centric energy future Connecting customers to the energy and technologies of the future Develop Leading customer Accelerate Embrace a resources to meet experience and towards clean decentralised and Low cost operator growing gas solutions energy digital future demand Disciplined capital management Employees Customers Shareholders Communities Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 13
Near-term catalysts Continued deleverage Capturing value from our energy market position Running Eraring harder in response to high wholesale prices Gas supply position to grow market share and support generation Growing renewables, partnered with existing gas fleet Step change cost reduction in APLNG Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 14
FY2018 guidance reaffirmed Energy Markets FY2018 EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1.7 - $1.8 billion, provided that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change Origin’s share of APLNG production is expected to be 245 - 265 PJ In FY2018, APLNG is expected to be cash flow break-even at US$48/boe (assuming AUD:USD exchange rate of 0.75) Capital expenditure (excluding Lattice Energy) is expected to be $360 - $420 million Adjusted Net Debt is expected to be below $7 billion Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 15
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Lawrie Tremaine Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 16
Performance highlights $m $m Underlying EBITDA Capex plus net APLNG contribution 5,000 3,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 - - FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Contact Share of APLNG Origin (remaining) Contact Net conribution to APLNG Origin remaining $m $m Asset sales Adjusted net debt 2,000 15,000 1,500 10,000 1,000 5,000 500 - Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 - Contact Origin ex Contact FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 17
Resilient capital structure Target capital structure Manage Capital asset allocation portfolio Maximise cash generation Debt/EBITDA 1 7 x Goal to achieve stable investment grade rating 6 x • BBB/Baa2 • Debt/EBITDA times 5 x Upgraded rating action following Lattice Energy sale and FY2017 results 4 x Stable investment grade • Interim Target (3.0 - 3.5x) Increases resilience 3 x Long Term Target (2.5 – 3.0x) • Reduces risk to debt refinance 2 x Target capital structure (Debt / EBITDA 1 ) • Interim target of 3.0-3.5x 1 x • Long term target of 2.5-3.0x − Equates to gearing of ~25%-30% 0 x FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 EBITDA excludes Origin’s share of APLNG EBITDA and includes cash distributions from APLNG 1) Origin Energy | November 2017 Investor Day 18
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