OPPORTUNITY DAY 14 May 2019
Financial Performance Agenda Performance by Business Achievement & Projects Update
Key Drivers Increasing crude oil price from Year end led to net stock gain VS low products spread Dubai Crude Oil Price (avg.) Foreign Exchange (avg.) Unit: $/bbl Unit : THB/USD QoQ appreciated 4% QoQ 6% YoY depreciated 0.2% YoY 1% 85 35 63.9 72.1 74.3 67.4 63.5 33.15 32.98 31.71 32.09 31.78 80 79.4 34 75 77.2 33.44 74.4 73.6 73.1 72.5 70 33 33.20 33.14 65 32.80 68.3 32.94 32.87 32.64 66.9 66.2 65.6 32 64.6 60 62.7 62.7 32.05 32.15 31.98 31.89 55 57.3 59.1 31.6431.44 31.49 31 31.47 50 45 30 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Gross Refining Margin (GRM) Product to Feed Margin (PTF) QoQ 68% Unit: $/bbl QoQ 20% Unit: $/bbl YoY 65% YoY 25% 7.6 7.1 5.9 5.4 5.7 1.9 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 3
Financial Highlight: 1Q19 performance Better performance as higher net stock gain despite weaken products spread Overview of Business 67.4 Dubai (Avg.) 63.9 63.5 4Q18 1Q19 Unit: $/bbl Crude run KBD 213 208 200 1% 1% Net Sales QoQ 16% (net excise tax) YoY 10% Net Sales 27% 29% (net excise tax) 64,233 54,274 64,233 60,488 54,274 MB MB Unit: MB 70% 72% Market GIM ($/bbl) 14.08 8.68 14.09 Net Stock G/(L)($/bbl) (7.51) 0.34 1.26 Acct. GIM ($/bbl) 14.42 6.58 9.94 QoQ 341% EBITDA 114% EBITDA 21% YoY 56% 25% Unit: MB 534 2,355 MB MB 5,389 296% 2,355 534 (311%) 54% QoQ 109% Net Income 62% 31% YoY 94% Net income Unit: MB 33% 153 Net Income (1,627) 2,752 2,566 MB 2,351 Operating NI MB 153 384 % (650) (163%) (1,627) (345%) 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others 4
Financial Highlight: 1Q19 performance Unit: MB %Change Unit: $/bbl 1Q19 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 QoQ YoY 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1% Net Sales 60,488 64,233 54,274 (16)% (10)% 99.45 102.02 95.04 Net Sales (net excise tax) Market GIM 8,569 8,879 4,958 (44)% (42)% 14.08 14.09 8.68 29% 54,274 Stock Gain/(Loss) 195 (3,809) (122) 97% (162)% 0.32 (6.05) (0.21) MB LCM (1) (841) 841 200% - (0.00) (1.34) 1.47 70% Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) 10 (78) 1 101% (92)% 0.02 (0.12) 0.00 Net Stock Gain/(Loss) 204 (4,728) 720 115% 253% 0.33 (7.51) 1.26 EBITDA Accounting GIM 8,773 4,151 5,678 37% (35)% 14.42 6.58 9.94 21% 25% OPEX + Selling Exp. (3,762) (4,050) (3,744) 8% 0% (6.19) (6.43) (6.56) 2,355 MB Other Incomes 378 432 422 (2)% 12% 0.62 0.69 0.74 EBITDA 5,389 534 2,355 341% (56)% 8.86 0.84 4.12 54% Depreciation (2,039) (2,105) (2,016) 4% 1% (3.35) (3.34) (3.53) Cost of Finance (472) (818) (387) 53% 18% (0.78) (1.30) (0.68) 62% Net income FX Gain/(Loss) 97 (14) 127 1019% 31% 0.16 (0.02) 0.22 153 Impairment Gain/(Loss) - 250 (8) - - - 0.40 (0.01) MB 384 Investment Gain/(Loss) 170 105 83 (21)% (51)% 0.28 0.17 0.14 % (345%) Other Expenses 0.2 (6) (5) 20% n.a. 0.00 (0.01) (0.01) Income Tax (391) 435 9 (98)% 102% (0.64) 0.69 0.02 Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others Net Profit 2,752 (1,627) 153 109% (94)% 4.53 (2.58) 0.26 5
Operating Net Income: 4Q18 vs 1Q19 According to lower spread & RDCC planned shutdown led to lower operating income Unit: MB Net Income 109% (1,627) 153 Operating Income 128% 2,351 (650) 2,351 3,846 153 720 83 357 141 -650 752 (650) 118 873 3,554 781 -1,627 132 41 306 1,048 434 (1,627) Uncontrolled Controlled Net Income Others Net Income Stock Loss OPEX + Fuel Loss Volume UHV+ 4Q18 (Depre/ 1Q19 Stock Loss Margin Selling & Hedging & Internal Decrease PPE+ (effective tax FX loan/ (effective Tax & Hedging Decrease +LCM Used Exp. PPC rate = 19%) Take quity) rate = 0%) +LCM (Exl. UHV) Fuel Loss & FX. Effect Income Crude Internal Everest Operating Tax Non Non Operating Premium Used + E4E Income 1Q9 Decrease Operating Operating Income Controllable Items Items 4Q18 6
Financial Position Increased inventory to served higher U-Rate after resuming operation Statements of Financial Position Debt Profile Unit: MB Net Debt = 57,966 MB 182,446 185,675 Interest Rate Currency 2,806 ST Loan 2,338 Cash 2% Bond (THB) 18% Float 8 3% THB 6 7% 17% Other 45,646 41,792 47,751 44,291 Current Other CA Fixed 1 7% USD 3 3% LT Loan (USD) Liabilities 10% Other 9,852 9,971 LT Loan (THB) Non-C/A 55% Ex. Rate = 31.98 Baht/$ LT Liabilities incl. 50,665 49,877 current port. Other Non- 2,609 2,614 Current Maturity of Long-term Debt Unit : MB Liabilities 14,151 125,965 125,147 13,327 PP&E - 3,169 THB Bond 8,262 7,707 87,380 87,538 Shareholders’ 6,430 6,888 - - 1,902 Equity 1,268 USD Loan - 10,981 3,364 - 6,361 6,440 6,439 THB Loan 3,066 2019 2020 2021 2022 >2022 Dec. 2018 Mar. 2019 Remark: Long-term debt as at 31 Mar 2019 Cash Flow Financial Ratios Unit: MB Net D/E CA/CL 1.02 0.96 0.95 < 1.0x 0.63 0.66 0.56 Beginning Cash Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow Ending Cash Cash from 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 from from 31 Mar 2019 1 Jan 2019 Operating Investing Financing 7
Financial Performance Agenda Performance by Business Achievement & Projects Update
Petroleum Spread Refinery Spread Lube Base Spread - Increase volume because of higher light - Higher supply from addition QoQ ULG 95 - Dubai QoQ 500SN – FO 180 3.5%S Spread crude production from U.S. capacity in China - Higher export volume from China $/TON $/bbl QoQ 12% QoQ 21% 513 481 417 13.7 375 12.1 330 11.6 4.7 3.7 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 - Softening demand for heating after end of QoQ Gas Oil - Dubai 150 BS – FO 180 3.5%S Spread winter - Higher export volume from China $/bbl $/TON QoQ 2% QoQ 14% 588 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.4 544 12.8 482 471 471 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 - Higher U-Rate from Europe & M.E. - Soften demand after QoQ HSFO - Dubai Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread QoQ - Weaken demand owing to lower shipment accelerating road construction in 4Q18 $/TON $/bbl QoQ 57% QoQ 100% 1.4 0.6 (20) (2.5) (41) (40) (4.4) (55) (4.9) (68) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 9
Petroleum Group Low products spread & RDCC planned shutdown led to lower GRM Crude Intake Production QoQ 4% Unit : Mbbl QoQ 8% YoY 6% YoY 3% Crude Run 213 2 08 200 (KBD) 15.3 14.6 14.1 Lube 99% 9 7 % 93% % U-Rate 1.7 1.8 0.6 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 LPG & Other Others 0.7 11% 14% 14% 1.0 2.6 2.4 6% 2.0 9% 8% Naphtha & Reformate Domestic 19% 13% 12% Gasoline Far East 66% 64% 64% 8.9 8.6 8.4 Diesel & Jet Oil Middle East Fuel Oil 0.4 0.4 0.5 33% 31% 34% Sweet Crude 67% 69% 66% 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Sour Crude 99% 97% 93% % Utilization 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 87% 84% 84% Lube Base Premium over 3.4 3.2 2.0 105% 110% 70% RDCC Dubai ($/bbl) Sales Volume & Revenue GRM 19.2 19.1 Crude intake Sales Volume QoQ 7% Unit : Mbbl 18.0 (Mbbl) YoY 5% QoQ 68% 17.2 16.9 16.0 YoY 65% 1.8 1.7 1.8 Lube Base 5.9 15.1 15.4 14.2 Refinery Unit : $/bbl 5.4 1.6 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1.9 QoQ 18% Revenue Unit : MB YoY 10% 1.9 Lube Base 4.4 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 3.4 1.1 42,201 45,905 37,773 Petroleum Refinery 0.8 37,556 40,924 33,337 Refinery 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 4,645 4,981 4,437 Lube Base 10
Petrochemical Spread HDPE-Ethylene – Naphtha PP-Propylene – Naphtha - Weaken demand from trade war - Product price was pressured by new QoQ QoQ Spread Spread (U.S. VS China) capacity - Increase new capacity in region $/TON $/TON QoQ 3% QoQ 5% Olefins Ethylene-NP HDPE-Ethylene Propylene-NP PP-Propylene 1,026 1,008 693 817 660 641 617 611 695 671 367 427 267 287 298 272 256 291 262 389 659 581 550 406 362 361 369 320 409 306 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 - Higher supply after new - Soften gasoline demand QoQ QoQ MX – Naphtha Spread Toluene – Naphtha Spread Petrochemical complex start - Higher supply after new up in China $/TON $/TON Petrochemical complex start up in China Aromatics QoQ 30% QoQ 22% 217 219 182 164 154 137 121 119 115 93 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 + Higher demand after Chinese New Year + Higher demand for electrical ABS – Naphtha Spread QoQ PS – Naphtha Spread QoQ + Cost push from ACN prices appliances $/TON - Sharply increased Naphtha price - Sharply increased Naphtha price $/TON following crude oil price following crude oil price Styrenics QoQ 3% QoQ 2% 1,428 1,379 1,248 998 1,032 1,000 945 898 807 788 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 11
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